Central Bank Views
RBA Hints to Expand QE In Order to Boost Job and Inflation
The RBA left all its monetary policy measures unchanged in April. The cash rate target stays at 0.1%. correspondingly, the 3-year Australian Government Bond yield target (yield curve control) and the Term Funding Facility (TFF) interest rate also remain at 0.1%. The size QE purchases is kept at AUD100...
SNB Appears Less Concerned about Franc’s Strength, Raises Inflation Forecasts
The SNB left all its monetary policy measures unchanged. It kept the policy rate and interest on sight deposits at −0.75% and pledged to continue intervening the FX market if necessary. While leaving the growth outlook intact, the central bank upgraded slightly the inflation forecasts.
In the accompanying statement, the...
BOE Voted Unanimously to Keep Bank Rate and QE Unchanged. Warned of Uncertain Outlook Despite Upbeat Data
The BOE voted 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. It will also continue to buy up to 875B pound of UK government bonds and 20B pound of corporate debts. While cautioning that the economic outlook remained highly uncertain, policymakers acknowledged the recent upbeat data, smooth vaccination...
FOMC Review – Fed Revised Economic Projections Significantly Higher, while Pledged to Keep QE Size Unchanged Until Actual Progress is Seen in Economy
The staff significantly upgraded economic projections. While the policy rate will unlikely change before 2024, the median dot plot reveals that more members are now projecting rate hikes in coming two years. As widely anticipated, the Fed left all monetary policy measures unchanged: The size of asset purchases stays...
BOE Preview – Response to Rising Yields in Focus
We expect BOE to vote 9-0 to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. Meanwhile, the QE program will also stay at 875B pound worth of government bonds, and 20B pound of corporate debt. Despite contraction in the first quarter, policymakers should point to the post-pandemic recovery as driven...
FOMC Preview – Expect to See Upgrade in GDP Growth Projections
The focus of this week's FOMC meeting is how the Fed would respond to the rising Treasury yields and the rapid improvement in the economic conditions. We expect policymakers to upgrade the GDP growth forecasts and attribute rising yields to improvement economic confidence. Yet, the tone should remain cautious....
ECB to Accelerate Asset Purchase as Rising Bond Yields Tighten Market
While leaving the monetary policy measures unchanged, the ECB indicated that it would increase asset purchases in coming months. The move is a response to the rise of bond yields which could tighten the financial conditions. On economic developments, the central bank attributed the likely contraction in 1Q21 to...
BOC More Upbeat on Economy, Hinted to Taper as Outlook Continues to Improve
As widely anticipated, the BOC left all monetary policy measures unchanged. While being more upbeat about the economic developments, the members noted that the policy rate will stay unchanged as least until inflation target of 2% is "sustainably" achieved. Meanwhile, they hinted of adjusting the size of asset purchases...
ECB Preview – Awaiting Actions in Response to Higher Yield and Revisions on Economic Forecasts
Macroeconomic developments have changed significantly since the January ECB meeting. One of the most prominent developments is the rise in inflation expectations and bond yields. As the ECB has pledged to maintain a accommodative monetary policy, it would be of great interest to the market as to how it...
BOC Preview: Caution over Pandemic Uncertainty While Acknowledging Better-than-Projected Growth
The BOC will leave its policy rate and the size of the QE program unchanged at this week's meeting. While there will be no press conference and updated economic projections will not be released until April, policymakers will address the upbeat economic data released in the last meeting. Yet,...
RBA Review – QE Might Increase Further to Curb Rising Yields and Exchange Rate
As widely anticipated, the RBA left all monetary policy measures unchanged. As a summary, the cash rate target, the 3-year Australian Government Bond ‘Yield Curve Control’ (YCC) target and the Term Funding Facility (TFF) interest rate all stay at 0.1%. The size of the asset purchase program (QE) is...
RBA Preview – Assessing Impacts of Rising Yields on Economy after Unexpected Increase in Bond Buying
At tomorrow’s meeting, the RBA should leave all monetary measures unchanged. The cash rate, 3-year yield target and the rate on the TFF program will stay unchanged at 0.1%. The QE program will likely remain intact as the central bank only doubled the size to AU$200B last month. While...
RBNZ Upgraded Economic Forecasts, NZD Shot Higher
The RBNZ delivered a more upbeat statement at today meeting. While leaving the monetary policy measures unchanged and warned of the uneven economic recovery, the staff upgraded the economic projections significantly. Policymakers also introduced a new forward guidance which suggests that policy adjustment will only be made until the...
Fed Powell Cautioned about Uneven Recovery, Pledged to Maintain Stimulus
At the testimony before the Senate, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the economic recovery is uneven. He pledged to maintain sufficient support to achieving the employment and inflation targets.
Concerning economic developments, Powell refrained from sending a too optimistic message. He affirmed that the recovery highly depends on the...
RBNZ Preview – Policymakers to Sound Less Dovish with Yields and NZD Strengthened
We expect the RBNZ to deliver a less dovish message in the upcoming meeting. Economic data released since the November meeting have been encouraging, with the price level and the job market on track to reach the target. These should lead to upgrades in the economic projections. Financial conditions...
Fed Cautiously Optimistic about Recovery with Fiscal Support. USD Upside Limited as Accommodative Policy Remains in Place
The FOMC minutes for the January meeting revealed that policymakers were cautiously optimistic over the economic outlook. Meanwhile, it also dampened hopes of tapering. US dollar's rebound has been driven by more upbeat economic data and rising yields. However, the Fed's pledge to maintain an ultra accommodative policy should...
BOE Upbeat about Inflation Outlook. Negative Rate Seems Unlikely although It is Not Ruled Out
As expected, BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%. Meanwhile, the QE program also remains at 875B pound worth of government bonds, and 20B pound of corporate debt. The economic projections reveal that policymakers are more optimistic about inflation projecting it to reach the +2% target this year....
RBA Extends Asset Purchases of AUD 100B Until September
RBA announced to extend the asset purchase program by an additional AUD100B as the current program ends in mid- April. Meanwhile, it has turned more upbeat about the global and domestic economic outlook, and upgraded GDP and employment forecasts.
RBA turns more upbeat over the global and domestic economic outlook....
BOE Preview – Awaiting Updates on Negative Rate Policy and Economic Projections
There are several things to watch for this week’s BOE meeting: 1) updates on the review of negative interest rate; 2) adjustment to QE; 3) economic projections. All policy measures will stay unchanged this week with the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1%, and the size of the asset purchases...
RBA to Leave Policy Unchanged and Remain Cautious about Outlook Despite Recovery
The RBA will have its first meeting this year on Tuesday, followed by publication of the statement of monetary policy on Thursday. We expect all policy measures to stay unchanged this month. Policymakers could revise GDP forecast higher and the unemployment rate lower, given the better-than- expected economic data...