Wed, Mar 20, 2019 @ 15:49 GMT
To us, the message conveyed in the FOMC minutes for the December meeting was somehow different from those at the post-meeting press conference. From the post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, we judged that the Fed turned a...
The market is closely watching ECB’s policy after QE. At the upcoming meeting next week, ECB would announce its plan to reinvest the maturing bonds. Meanwhile, market speculations are rising that the central bank would soon announce a new...
There are several issues we are expecting from the FOMC meeting later this week. While it is widely anticipated that the Fed would leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25-2.5%, the potential changes in the accompanying statement and the...
BOE is almost certain to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in the May meeting. Weakness in PMI data released last week aggravated concerns that recent the moderation in economic activities might persist. Doubts have arisen that whether...
A rate hike of +25 bps at the upcoming FOMC meeting is a done deal as the market has for months priced in over 90% chance of its occurrence. Recent macroeconomic developments indicate such rate hike is totally justified....
BOJ offered to buy 190B yen of JGBs with maturity of 10- 25 years, down 10B yen from the purchase made on December 28. It also reduced the purchase of JGBs with maturity of 25- 40 by the same amount to 90B yen. The move has heightened speculations that the central bank is preparing to trim its stimulus measures. The market reactions match with the speculations with USDJPY slipping -0.42% while EURJPY down -0.65% on Tuesday. Japanese longer- dated 20- and 40-year bond yields rose to their highest in a month. Longer- term US Treasuries were also affected by BOJ’s move with 10-year yields gaining +6 points to 2.546%. Of course, the movement of US Treasuries was also affected by the auctions this year.
In the minutes for the January FOMC meeting, the members elaborated the rationale for their dovish shift. While affirming solid growth and the resilient employment market, the members focused on the softening inflation and were concerned about the “muted”...
Surprisingly, BOE voted 6-3 to leave the Bank rate on hold at 0.50%. Chief economist Andy Haldane joined Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders in opting for a +25bps rate hike. The outcome is more hawkish than consensus of a...
While it has been widely anticipated that this week’s ECB meeting would be non-eventful, it is closely watched. We expect the central bank to reaffirm that the monthly asset purchases would be halved in size (from 30B euro to...
As widely anticipated FOMC left the Fed funds rate target at 1.5-1.75% in May. The accompanying statement also came in largely in line with our expectations – shrugging off moderation in first quarter growth and getting more confident in...
ECB's decisions in June came in largely in line with our expectations, although it might have contained surprises for other market participants. The central bank decides to reduce the size of its QE program to 15B euro/ month, from...
The recovery in euro since late-May gathered momentum last week after ECB Chief Economist and executive board member Peter Praet signaled the central bank would discuss QE tapering at this week’s meeting. We are not surprised by this as...
The minutes for the July FOMC meeting affirmed that the policy rate is prone to increase in September, notwithstanding Trump’s pressure. The members remained upbeat over the economic growth outlook but warned on downside risk due to intensifying trade...
Again, we expect BOE to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%, as well as to leave the asset purchase program at 435B pound, at the February meeting. While the focus of the meeting remains on...
The upcoming FOMC meeting later this week aims at preparing the market for another +25 bps rate hike in September. As no press conference and economic projections would follow the August meeting, the post-meeting statement, and the minutes in...
BOE joined other central banks in downgrading the economic growth outlook. In addition to heightened risks of global growth slowdown, ongoing Brexit uncertainty is the key concern for the members. The members voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate...
Weaker USD, lower Treasury yields, higher equities… Market reactions showed that Fed’s chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole symposium was interpreted as “dovish". Discussing about “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy”, Powell revealed the challenges of navigating the stars...
At the upcoming FOMC meeting, the members would vote to leave the Fed funds rate target at 2.25-2.5%. We expect reinforcement of the dovish message conveyed in January. The focus is on the plan to complete the reduction of...
Stock markets rallied after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club, New York. Market players were thrilled amid their interpretation that Powell has turned dovish, probably succumbed to Trump’s endless criticism. We do not see an abrupt...
There have been both positive and negative data released since the March FOMC meeting. We expect policymakers to view slowdown in GDP growth as driven by temporary factors which should not affect the monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, the central...
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