Weekly Report
Yen Committed to a Direction, While Others Not… Yet
Overall, the markets in the last full trading week of May was rather mixed. New Zealand Dollar surged initially after hawkish RBNZ. But it failed to extend much gain from there, even though it still ended as the strongest. It looked like Dollar was ready to turn around after...
Swiss Franc Ended as Strongest, Aussie as Weakest, But Bitcoin Stole the Show
While Fed minutes started to prepare the markets for discussion on tapering in the coming months, Dollar wasn't give much support. It has indeed ended as one of the worst performers for the week, just next too New Zealand and Australian Dollar. On the other hand, Swiss Franc and...
Stocks Stayed in Up Trend, Yields Range Bound, Dollar Lost Downside Momentum
Market debates heated up last week with the influx of some US economic data. On the other hand, the concerns on overheating inflation was legitimate given the much stronger than expected headline and core CPI reading from the US. On the other hand, poor retail sales, and prior week's...
Dollar Tumbled Broadly, Stocks Hit Record, as Data Affirmed Fed’s Patient Approach
Dollar dropped broadly last week and ended sharply lower, as the huge non-farm payroll miss gave a strong node to Fed's patient approach. Progress could only be consider substantial as seen in realized economic data, rather than projected outlook. It's right that Fed is not even in a position...
Canadian Dollar Rally to Continue after a Strong Week, But Medium Term Strength Uncertain
Canadian Dollar ended last week as the strongest ones on a couple of factors. With some near term resistance taken out, such rally will likely continue for the near term. Swiss Franc ended as the second strongest. While Dollar was pressured for most of the week, it staged a...
Dollar’s Near Term Bearishness Persists, Other Currencies Mixed
Dollar ended as the worst performing one last week as near term bearishness persisted. Q1's rebound should have completed and the main question is whether it's ready for new lows. That is, indeed, in favor unless overall risk-off sentiments were choked off by some unexpected events.
The forex markets were...
Pull Back in Treasury Yields Boosted Stocks to New Record, Dollar Set Up for More Downside
Dollar tumbled broadly again as falling treasury yield pushed US and German stocks to new record highs. Near term trend in the greenback should have reversed, but it's unsure whether it's ready for medium term down trend resumption yet. At least, EUR/USD will have to break through 1.2 handle...
Euro Reversed Course on Less Pessimistic European Outlook, Commodity Currencies Ignored Risk Rallies
Swiss Franc and Euro ended as the strongest ones last week, as investors reversed their short positions accumulated in Q1. In particular, such reversals pushed Sterling to be the worst performing one, suffering heavy pressure against both Euro and Franc. The outlook for European looked a bit less pessimistic...
Risk Sentiments Turned On Again, But Euro Likely to Stay Weak on Third Wave
After staying cautious for most of the week, risk sentiments were turned on again towards the end, bringing DOW and S&P 500 to new record highs. Aussie, Kiwi and Sterling staged a strong come back while Yen and Swiss Franc were deeply sold off. Yet, Dollar ended as the...
Sentiments Turned Cautious on Yields and Infections, But Stay Positive
US treasury yield jumped last week after Fed gave way to more yield strength. In the background, there were some concerns over resurgence of coronavirus infections in some countries like France, Brazil and India. There was also risk of slower than originally expected vaccine rollouts. Tensions between US China...
DOW, SPX and DAX Hit Records While US Yield Surged, CAD Shone
Global equities struck a strong note in ending last week, with help from fresh US stimulus and ECB's pledge to accelerate asset purchases. Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc ended as the worst performing ones. Canadian Dollar was the strongest on the back of risk-on sentiment, while additional supported up...
10-Yr Yield Couldn’t Break Loose from 1.5 Magnet, Dollar and Canadian Soared
Strong treasury yield continued to be a major theme last week. But for now, it seemed 10-year yield could still break loose from the "magnetic field" of S&P dividend yield at around 1.5%. Indeed, US stocks, including NASDAQ staged a strong rebound on Friday, as 10-year yield settled back...
A Wild Week of Metals, Yields, Stocks and Dollar
Just after DOW hit new record high in the middle of last week, the rally was choked by skyrocketing treasury yields. Dollar surprisingly ended as the strongest one for the week, followed by Euro and then Sterling. Australian Dollar suffered most as it reversed some of the month's gains....
Aussie Surged With Industrial Metal Prices, More Upside in Favor
Stocks markets took a breather last week while focus turned to surging industrial metal prices and treasury yields. Strength in metals was seen more about supply shortage than recovery in demand. That somewhat also reinforced reflation trades. US 10-year yield was back above 1.3%, German 10-year bund yield at...
Dollar Tumbled on Risk-On Sentiments Again, Ignored Yield Strength
Dollar ended as the worst performing one, reversing much of prior week's rebound. Risk-on sentiments appeared to be leading the greenback lower again, and boosted Australian Dollar as the strongest one. But the development in other major currencies were less clear.
The strength in stocks and oil were not much...
Dollar Rally Choked by Job Data, Spotlights Turn to Sterling and Aussie
Dollar was in a pole position to end as the strongest major currency. But disappointing non-farm payroll report gave dollar bulls a reality check as the greenback ended mixed, after late selloff. Australian and New Zealand Dollar have indeed closed as the best performers, followed by Sterling. Euro, Swiss...
Markets Down after Roller-Coaster Rides, Dollar Upside Still Capped
January ended with an exceptionally volatility week. While GME occupied a lot of headlines, there were other important developments like vaccines, US stimulus, and central bank expectations. Sterling ended as the strongest one with traders paring bets on negative interest rate of BoE. The same went for New Zealand...
Euro Reversed Initial Selloff after ECB, Turning the Corner?
Euro has surprisingly ended as the strongest one last week. While a rebound against Dollar was expected, the turnaround against commodity currency, in a risk-on week, was impressive. Though, as discussed below, the common currency still has a lot to prove. Sterling also overwhelmed New Zealand Dollar slightly and...
Dollar and Yen in Driving Seat While Other Markets Turned Mixed
Sterling ended the week as the best performing one. But the late selloff, and rejection by resistance against Dollar and Yen, suggest that the latter too were in the driving seat. Weakness was apparently see in Euro, New Zealand Dollar, and to a lesser extent Australian. Dollar could be...
Dollar Relatively Resilient in Strong Risk-on Market, Setting the Base for a Rebound?
Global investors were all in risk seeking mode in the first full week of 2021. That came despite all the headlines of surges in coronavirus infection and death, return to strict lockdowns, chaos in Washington and Joe Biden's certification as US President-Elect. Dollar didn't perform too well but there...