Thu, Feb 21, 2019 @ 14:29 GMT
US equities' up trend resumed overnight with all three major indices closed at new record highs. Sentiments were lifted by news that US president Donald Trump will deliver a "phenomenal" plan to overhaul taxes on business without "two or three weeks". DJIA jumped 118.06 pts, or 0.59%, to close at 118.06. S&P 500 rose 13.2 pts, or 0.58%, to close at 2307.87. NASDAQ rose 32.73 pts, or 0.58%, to close at 5715.18. Treasury yields followed with 10 year yield gained 0.044 to close at 2.395. 30 year yield rose 0.050 to close at 3.011. Dollar also strengthened some what but the dollar index lost momentum after hitting 100.73, limited by 55 day EMA (now at 100.66). In the currency markets, Yen is the biggest loser for the day and with USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY took out minor resistance level, suggesting more upside.
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 6 shows that all major currencies (except USD) remained in NET SHORT positions. Speculative longs on USD index fell -1 564 contracts while shorts declined -2 323, sending...
Dollar opens the week broadly firmly, followed by Sterling as the second strongest. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is trading with and broad-based soft tone, followed by Canadian Dollar. Nonetheless, all major pairs and crosses are bound in...
Euro suffered heavy selling today as Italy and EU stepped up rhetorics on budget clashes. But even heavier selling is seen in Australian, New Zealand Dollar and Sterling. Steep decline in Hong Kong stocks hints that China markets will...
Risk aversion was again the main theme in the financial markets last week. But this time, commodity currencies ended as the strongest ones. Sterling was hardest hit as disappointing inflation reading further killed the chance of an early BoE hike. Euro followed on report that ECB President Draghi won't address monetary policy in the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium this week. Also, the common currency was pressured as ECB minutes showed worries on Euro overshooting its strength. Dollar suffered much on the political turmoil in the White House but it ended slightly higher against most except Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. Meanwhile Yen and Swiss Franc failed to capitalize on risk aversion and ended the week mixed.
While US equities surged to new record high last week, other markets didn't follow. Dollar ended mixed in spite of a chorus of hawkish comments from Fed officials, including chair Janet Yellen. A batch of stronger than expected data also provided little support to the greenback. Instead, Dollar was dragged down by treasury yields, which failed to break out from recent range and reversed during the week. Political uncertainties could be a major factor in triggering safe haven flows to US bonds. And such sentiment could also be seen in the broad based weakness in Euro, which closed as the second weakest major currency next to Sterling. Swiss Franc decouple from Euro and Sterling and ended as the second strongest currency. And overall risk aversion on European situation could be the factor in driving up the Japanese Yen, which ended as the strongest major currency.
Dollar staged a strong rebound towards the end of the week as boosted by an overall set of solid job data. While the greenback still ended lower against Euro for the week, it's now looking likely that the greenback has found a short term bottom already. It's still early to confirm a trend reversal for Dollar yet. And we believe the key lies in the yet to be confirmed fiscal policy of US President Donald Trump. But for now, Dollar will probably gyrate higher in the early part of this week until CPI release on Friday. On the other hand, while Euro ended the week as the strongest currency, its rallies against Dollar, Yen and even Swiss Franc are starting to look tired. Sterling ended the week generally lower after markets perceived the BoE Super Thursday as a dovish one. But commodity currencies were even weaker with Canadian Dollar starting to pare back the strong gains in the past two months.
Trading remains rather quiet in the forex markets this week so far. Dollar was supported by upbeat comments from Fed officials regarding a new term rate hike. Jerome Powell also indicated that he preferred continuity when taking over...
In its first meeting in 2018, RBA maintained the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The decision had been widely anticipated. As suggested in the accompanying statement, the central bank continued to see positive economic developments both globally and at home. Policymakers have turned slightly more upbeat over the domestic growth outlook, projecting GDP to expand 'a bit above 3% over the next couple of years'. Meanwhile, RBA revealed that the central forecast for CPI is 'a bit above 2% in 2018. This marks a more hawkish tone when compared with December’s language. While the job market has improved a lot, with the unemployment rate falling to the lowest level in 4.5 years, wage growth has remained lackluster. This has raised concerns over household expenditure.
Dollar continues to trade as the weakest one for today and the week. The chorus of Fed's "patience" rhetoric continued overnight with the top two men in Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Richard Clarida. But the marginal impact...
Euro recovers overnight against Dollar and remains generally firm this week. It's just overpowered by Sterling which was shot up by strong Q3 GDP data. ECB policy decision and press conference will be the main highlight for today. The central bank is widely expected to announce recalibration of its EUR 60B a month asset purchase program, after it expires by the end of this year. The general consensus is that ECB will half the program to EUR 30B per month, but give it a 9-month extension till end of September 2018.
While Euro is staying soft, after post German election selloff, it's still holding above near term support against Dollar and Yen. Weakness is mainly seen against Sterling as 0.8773 support is taken out. Also, the common currency has not yet shown any sign of a rebound. Meanwhile, Dollar is turning slightly softer against others while Yen is picking up some strength. Mixed comments from Fed officials provided little support the the greenback. While are still pricing in more than 70% chance of a December Fed hike, the decision will remain very much data dependent. Tensions between US and North Korea remain tight as verbal exchanges between leaders continued to escalate.
Strong risk appetite remains the main theme for today on trade optimism. Though, Dollar is trying to steal the show in early US session with stronger than expected inflation data. For now, Yen remains the weakest one for today....
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 18, NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped as bets decreased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the week,...
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 20  NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures continued to fall. Speculative long positions of crude oil futures declined -32 596 contracts, while...
Safe haven flow is the main theme today as markets await G6+1 showdown in Canada. Yen is the biggest winner today, followed by Dollar. But these two remain the weakest ones for the week next to Canadian Dollar. Despite...
US-China trade friction aggravated as China on April 4 announced the second round of retaliation, immediately after US revelation of a list of about US$ 50B worth of made-in-China products that are subject to 25% tariffs. The first round...
China is on pins and needles as it sees renminbi (Chinese yuan) fall. The government dares not risk massive capital flight for uncertain benefit in exports by depreciating its currency. The apparent increases in FX reserve over the past...
China recorded a trade surplus of US$ 28.8B in April, beating consensus of US$ 27.5B. In March, China reported a deficit of US$ 5B due to seasonal factor. Compared with the same period last year, trade surplus narrowed by...
Dollar ended last week as the weakest one after deep selloff before weekly close. A whole lot of events are scheduled ahead to keep the greenback busy. Those include FOMC rate decision, US-China trade talk, non-farm payrolls. Also, the...
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