Sun, Aug 25, 2019 @ 20:52 GMT
European majors are generally the strong ones this week so far. While Euro and Sterling lost some intraday momentum after yesterday's rally, they're both remain firm as supported by solid economic data. ON the other hand, While data from US are not too back, the greenback is being pressured by the political drama in the White House. Aussie is leading commodity currencies down as RBA warned of its recent appreciates in the rate decision statement.
Trump's announcement of raising tariff of Chinese imports  to 25%, from 10%, has renewed concerns over the US-China trade war, and its impacts on global economic outlook. The uncertainty has dampened energy prices. According to the CFTC Commitments of...
The FOMC minutes for the January meeting were a hawkish one. Many members expressed the view that it would be 'appropriate' to increase interest rate again 'fairly soon'. A few of them suggested removing policy accommodation in 'a timely manner'. However, there was no indication that it should arrive in as soon as March. Indeed, more clarity on the fiscal stimulus plan is needed before the members could decide on the timing of the rate hikes. While the general outlook to the economy remained upbeat (the description on the employment market was especially constructive),'a few' members were concerned about downside risks to the inflation outlook.
Sterling jumps broadly after Reuters reported that UK Junior Brexit Minister Robin Walker said it's very close to transition deal with the EU. But so far, no detail is reported yet. Meanwhile, Australian Dollar remains one of the strongest...
Dollar surged broadly last week as Fed delivered the expected rate hike and painted a more hawkish rate outlook for 2017. Dollar index resumed the long term up trend and reached a 14 year high at 103.56 before closing at 102.95. In particular, EUR/USD took out 1.0461 key support level and reached the lowest level since 2002. Nonetheless, Yen and commodity currencies were hardest hit. Rally in Dollar was accompanied by extended rally in treasury yields as 10 year yield breached 2.6 handle before closing at 2.597. Gold suffered deeper selling on dollar trend to close at 1136.8 while WTI crude oil pared back much of the post OPEC gains to close at 51.90. However, stocks turned mixed despite Fed raising GDP projection for next year. DJIA struggled to power through 20000 handle and closed the week slightly higher at 19843.31. The markets may turn into consolidation mode as holidays approach. But strength in Dollar will likely carry on to early next year.
Dollar surged broadly last week as Republican's tax plan overcame another hurdle. The news also sent DOW and S&P 500 to new records, with upside acceleration. Accompanying that, treasury yields closed sharply higher, reversing prior week's loss. Technical development in Dollar was not totally convincing yet. NZD/USD led the way lower as markets were unhappy with the new labour-led coalition in New Zealand. USD/CAD followed after disappointing economic data. Solid risk appetite also pushed USD/JPY and USD/CHF near term resistance to resume recent rally. But EUR/USD was kept in range only, showing much resilience in spite of political turmoil in Catalonia. GBP/USD was also held in range with support from some positive news regarding Brexit. AUD/USD also stays in recently established range.
The forex markets are generally steady today, staying in prior day's range. Dollar and Sterling remain the two weakest major currencies for the week while Yen is strong together with Aussie and Kiwi. Released from US, retail sales rose 0.6% in December, missing expectation of 0.7%. Ex-auto sales rose 0.2%, also missed expectation of 0.5%. Headline PPI rose 0.3% mom, 1.6% yoy in December, accelerated from November's 1.3% yoy and meets expectation. PPI core rose 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy, unchanged from November's 1.6% yoy and above expectation of 1.6% yoy.
To us, the message conveyed in the FOMC minutes for the December meeting was somehow different from those at the post-meeting press conference. From the post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, we judged that the Fed turned a...
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks surged +7.22 mmb to 1229.13 mmb in the week ended March 29. Crude oil inventory surprisingly soared +7.24 mmb...
Speculators were mixed over the energy complex in the week ended May 8. Net LENGTH for crude oil futures plunged -10 799 contracts from a week ago to 679 928. NET LENGTH of heating oil rose +5 463 contracts to...
Sterling pares back some gains in Asian session today, but remains the strongest one for the week. It's lifted by hope that an Irish border solution could finally be reached before October 31 to avoid no deal Brexit. Dollar...
BOE voted 7-2 to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% in May. The members voted unanimously to leave to asset purchase program unchanged at 435B pound. As we had mentioned in the preview (https://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/central-bank-analysis/92835-boe-could-be-more-dovish-than-hawkish-hold/), BOE’s message turned out...
Dollar pares back some gains in Asian session today after yesterday's yield driven rally. 10 year yield hit as high as 2.990 during regular trading hour before closing at 2.973, up 0.022. However, that was below open at 2.975...
Fed's dovish turn occupied a lot of head lines last week. Stocks were lifted while Dollar was pressured. However, the moves were not as drastic as they could seem to be. There was no upside acceleration in stocks. Treasury...
Dollar turns weaker again in early US session after data disappointment. Also, the USDA reported that US farm exports to China will suffer steep decline. Business in the US are eager to know more about the progress of US-China...
Dollar rose mildly overnight but strength was so far limited. Comments from Fed officials were mixed and provided little guidance to the greenback. Meanwhile, Japanese Yen trades broadly lower on solid risk appetite and recovery in yields. DOW and S&P 500 surged to record close at 21528.99 and 2453.46 respectively. Nikkei followed and gains 0.81% to 20230.41. US 10 year yield recovered by adding 0.033 to 2.190, but it's still limited below 2.229 resistance. Similarly, dollar index is held below 97.77 resistance. EUR/USD is also staying above 1.1109 support. There is no change in Dollar's bearish trend yet.
BOC is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% this week, and for the rest of the year. Data flow since the last meeting has remained resilient, offering the central bank more room to take a wait...
BOE joined other central banks in downgrading the economic growth outlook. In addition to heightened risks of global growth slowdown, ongoing Brexit uncertainty is the key concern for the members. The members voted unanimously to keep the Bank rate...
Commodity currencies are trading broadly higher today as risk appetite is lifted by optimism over US-China trade negotiations in Beijing. Canadian Dollar is additionally supported by rally in oil price, with WTI breaking 50 handle. On the other hand,...
The forex markets are generally staying in tight range today. Yen is attempting to extend recent down trend but momentum is relatively weak. In particular, USD/JPY is feeling a bit heavy ahead of 114.36 key medium term resistance level. Euro is firm as Sentix investor confidence stayed closed to 10 year high in July. But both Dollar and Sterling are mildly stronger and they pare some of last week's losses. Canadian Dollar is also in consolidation even though markets are expecting BoC to deliver a 25bps rate hike later in the week. In other markets, Gold dips to as low as 1204 and is held below 1210 handle so far. WTI crude oil is mildly lower at around 44.0.
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