Wed, Mar 20, 2019 @ 15:23 GMT
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended May 29, net LENGTH for crude oil futures fell -25 558 contracts to 607 828. Net LENGTH for heating oil futures added +2 729 contracts to 45...
Sterling remains strong in general today, next to Australian and New Zealand Dollar. UK and EU officials came out dismissing the news regarding a Brexit financial services deal. But that didn't harm the Pound a bit. Instead, Sterling ignore...
Dollar jumped overnight on a string of solid economic data but quickly reversed. There were a chorus of hawkish comments from Fed officials. But those comments provided no support to the greenback. In the background, stocks extended recent record record with major indices showing upside acceleration. Treasury yields also strengthened even though both 10-year and 30-year yield are bounded in recent range. Fed fund futures are pricing in 26.6% chance of a March hike and 74% chance of hike by June. That was up from prior day's pricing of 17.7% and 68.0% respectively. The lack of sustained buying in Dollar with positive development elsewhere is worth noting. We can't find any convincing reason for the sluggishness in the greenback yet. But it's likely that Dollar will head lower before going up again.
Dollar remains the weakest one and is under broad based selling pressure. Mixed economic data from the US provides little support to the greenback. Headline PPI rose 0.4% mom, 2.7% yoy in January, versus expectation of 0.4% mom, 2.5% yoy. Core PPI rose 0.4% mom, 2.2% yoy, versus expectation of 0.2% mom, 2.1% yoy. Empire state manufacturing index dropped to 13.1 in February, below expectation of 18.0. Philly Fed survey rose to 25.8, above expectation of 21.6. Initial jobless claims rose 7k to 230k in the week ended February 10. 1.2537 is a key level to watch in EUR/USD today.
Policy Divergence was once a hot topic back in 2015 through early 2017, when the FOMC began to increase the Fed funds rate, while other major central banks maintained extra accommodative monetary polices as they struggled to boost the...
RBA minutes for the April meeting came in less upbeat than the March one, underpinning concerns over developments in Australia's labor and housing market. Policymakers concluded by noting that "developments in the labour and housing markets warranted careful monitoring over coming months". Note, however, that the meeting was held ahead of the release of the March employment report which showed that full-time payrolls rose the most in nearly 30 years. Aussie slumped after the minutes to a 3-day low 0.552.
While US equities surged to new record high last week, other markets didn't follow. Dollar ended mixed in spite of a chorus of hawkish comments from Fed officials, including chair Janet Yellen. A batch of stronger than expected data also provided little support to the greenback. Instead, Dollar was dragged down by treasury yields, which failed to break out from recent range and reversed during the week. Political uncertainties could be a major factor in triggering safe haven flows to US bonds. And such sentiment could also be seen in the broad based weakness in Euro, which closed as the second weakest major currency next to Sterling. Swiss Franc decouple from Euro and Sterling and ended as the second strongest currency. And overall risk aversion on European situation could be the factor in driving up the Japanese Yen, which ended as the strongest major currency.
RBNZ’s August statement comes in more dovish than we had anticipated. While leaving the OCR unchanged at 1.75%, the members pushed backward expectations for the next interest rate adjustment. Moreover, they pushed back the timing for inflation to reach...
While the US markets staged an historic comeback yesterday, sentiments didn't stay long. After Asian markets turned mixed, European markets are now trading broadly lower. DOW's over 1000pts rebound yesterday was impressive. But futures suggest that it's going to...
Dollar received no support from better than expected ADP employment data. Instead, it's weighed down by dovish comments from a Fed official. The greenback is trading as the second weakest for today in early US session. It's just slightly...
Australian Dollar jumps broadly today after RBA rate decision. While growth and inflation forecasts are downgraded, the overall announcement suggests that RBA is maintaining tightening bias. The next move on interest rate is still a hike even though it...
The moves triggered by stronger than expected CPI in the US proved to be short lived. DOW opened lower overnight to 24490.36 but quickly reversed. Eventually it ended up 1.03% at 24893.49. S&P 500 and NASDAQ also closed up 1.34% and 1.86% respectively. Dollar initially gained after the release but also reversed quickly. More importantly, it now looks like the greenback is ready to resume it's broad based down trend. Staying in the currency markets, Yen is trading as the strongest one for the week on revived speculations of stimulus exit. That's followed by Kiwi and then Euro. The only move that was persistent was the rally in treasury yields with 10 year yield closing up 0.073 to 2.913, resuming recent up trend towards 3.036 key resistance.
Euro is back under broad based selling pressure after an ex-IMF official accepted the mandate to form an interim government. While traders were relieved that the anti-establishment eurosceptic coalition government couldn't be formed, they're now facing uncertainty of a...
Dollar is trading firm is Asian session today and maintains overnight gains inspired by positive ADP and GDP data. That was accompanied mild strength in stocks, with DOW closed up 0.12%. 10 year yield also edged higher by gaining 0.007 to 2.143. Dollar index dived to as low as 91.62 yesterday but seems to be getting strong support fro 91.91/3 key level and rebounded. The key will lie in tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. As risk aversion eased, Yen is trading in red against all other major currencies for the week, except Canadian Dollar. Gold also pares back much of this week's gain and is back pressing 1300, after hitting as high as 1331.9 earlier in the week. The Loonie is weighed down by weakness in oil price which sees WTI dips to as low as 45.58.
Sterling opens the weak broadly lower and stays soft after EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said he "strongly opposed" to UK's impractical plan. The Pound has been sensitive to any Brexit headlines and will continue to be so....
The FOMC minutes for the September meeting contained little news regarding the rationale of the 25 bps rate hike last month, as well as the future path of monetary policy normalization. Yet, there are some points worth nothing. First,...
Canadian Dollar suffers steep selling today as US President Donald Trump singles out Canada and Mexico in his trade war rhetorics. He said in a tweet that "NAFTA, which is under renegotiation right now, has been a bad deal...
The BOE left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program unchanged at 435B pound. The members voted unanimously (9-0) for the decision. What caught the market attention most is the comment that the“monetary policy...
As widely anticipated, BOE voted unanimously to keep all monetary policies unchanged in November. The Bank rate stays unchanged at 0.75%. Meanwhile, purchases of gilts and corporate bonds remain at 435B pound and 10B pound, respectively. The central bank...
Again, we expect BOE to vote unanimously to keep the Bank rate unchanged at 0.75%, as well as to leave the asset purchase program at 435B pound, at the February meeting. While the focus of the meeting remains on...
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