Fri, Apr 19, 2024 @ 20:07 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 137

Live Comments

Random

Yuan hit fresh 2-yr low, shrugging PBoC actions

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    The People’s Bank of China announced yesterday to cut the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to 6% from 8% beginning September 15. That is, the amount of foreign-exchange deposits banks need to set aside as reserves will be lowered, freeing up funds to buy Yuan.

    The move, together with a string of stronger-than expected exchange rate fixings, are seen as a strong signal on PBoC’s stance to at least slow Yuan’s depreciation. That came when Yuan hit fresh two-year low and with USD/CNH approaching psychological important 7 handle.

    But USD/CNH’s rally (Yuan’s depreciation) is continuing. There is no sign of topping in USD/CNH as long as 6.8877 support holds, technically. It’s still on track to 61.8% projection of 6.3057 to 6.8372 from 6.7159 at 7.0444.

    Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 52.6, problems lie ahead

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 52.6 in February, slightly up from January’s 52.5. PMI Composite was finalized at 51.6, up from 51.3. Looking at some member stats, they’re generally stuck at rather low expansionary reading. Italy PMI Composite was at 4-month high of 50.7. Germany’s Composite was finalized at 50.7, France at 52.0. Ireland, however, surged to 17-month high at 56.7.

      Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

      “The eurozone economy showed resilience to disruptions arising from the coronavirus outbreak in February, but dig deeper into the data and there are signs that problems lie ahead… Exports of both goods and services are now falling at an increased rate due to virus-related downturns in demand, and increasingly widespread delivery delays threaten future production.

      “In the service sector, growing numbers of companies are reporting lost business due to the virus spread, notably in sectors such as hotels, travel, transport and tourism but also even in areas such as financial services. While the PMI data so far for the first quarter are signalling a 0.1-0.2% increase in GDP, there are clear downside risks and a likely weakening of the economy in March.”

      Full release here.

      BoC Macklem prepared to be as forceful as needed

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said he’s “not going to rule anything out”,. when he was asked whether he could considering hiking more than 50bps at next meeting. He added, “we’re prepared to be as forceful as needed and I’m really going to let those words speak for themselves.”

        “If we start to see demand pressures internally moderate and we start to see those international price pressures abating, you should see those quarter-over-quarter inflation rates start to come down,” Macklem said.

        China: Adding tariffs can’t resolve any problem

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in a regular press briefing that “adding tariffs can’t resolve any problem” of trade conflicts. “Talks are by their nature a process of discussion. It’s normal for both sides to have differences. China won’t shun problems and is sincere about continuing talks,” he added.

          Shuang also said “We hope the U.S. side can work hard with China, to meet each other halfway, and on the basis of mutual respect and equality, resolve each other’s reasonable concerns, and strive for a mutually beneficial, win win agreement.”

          Vice Premier Liu He will still travel to the US on May 9-10 to resume trade negotiations despite re-escalated tariff threats. That’s a slight delay comparing to the original plan of traveling to the US on Wednesday.

          It’s widely reported that China reneged on the commitments it made, explicitly with the new draft agreement sent to the US over the weekend. Both US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed that. And it’s seen as the trigger for Trump to declare trade war escalation to full blown level this Friday.

          Mnuchin also confirmed that “the entire economic team … are completely unified and recommended to the president to move forward with tariffs if we are not able to conclude a deal by the end of the week.”

          UK retail sales dropped -5.1% in March, record contraction

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            In quantity term, UK retail sales dropped sharply by -5.1% mom in March, a record contraction since the series began. Ex-fuel sales dropped -3.7% mom. Over the year, total sales dropped -5.8% yoy while ex-fuel sales dropped -4.1% yoy. In the three months to March, retail sales volume dropped -1.6% 3mo3m. Sales at food stores rose in March, with slight increase in non-store retailing. But non-food stores sales, and fuels recorded steep decline.

            Full release here.

            China trade balance Q1: EU imports surged 17.5% to $63.5b, US imports rose only 8.9% to $41.7b

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              China reported a rate trade deficit of USD -5b in March versus expectation of USD 27.8b surplus. That’s also the first monthly trade deficit since last February. Imports rose 5.9% yoy while exports dropped -2.7% yoy. Trade surplus with US dropped to USD 15.3b. In CNY terms trade balance came in at CNY -30b deficit versus expectation of CNY 160b surplus. Imports dropped -9.8% yoy while exports also dropped -9.8% yoy.

              For the quarter from January to March, 2018, China’s trade surplus came in at USD 49.1b, dropped -23.2% yoy from Q1 of 2017. Exports rose 14.1% yoy. But import grew even stronger by 18.9% yoy. In CNY terms, Q1 trade surplus rose came in at CNY 326.2b with exports increased by 7.4% yoy and imports jumped even stronger by 11.7% yoy.

              Also for Q1, export to US rose 14.8% yoy to USD 99.9b while imports from US rose 8.9% yoy to USD 41.7b. Exports to EU rose 13.2% yoy to USD 90.2b while imports from EU rose 17.5% yoy to USD 63.5b.

              The EU is doing pretty well in selling the China.

              RBA Minutes: Further rate cut is more likely than not

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                Australian Dollar falls broadly today on dovish RBA minutes as well as miss in house price data. RBA cut cash rate by -25bps to 1.25% at the June 4 meeting. The minutes noted that “members agreed that it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead.”

                Policymakers acknowledged that inflation has been below 2-3% target range for three years and even deteriorated to 1.5% in Q1. Unemployment rate had not declined any further in the last six months despite ongoing job growth. It has eve edged up in the most recent two months. Thus, “a lower level of interest rates would support growth in the economy, thereby reducing unemployment and contributing to inflation rising to a level consistent with the target.”

                Also, lower interests could support the economy through lower exchange rate, reduced borrowing rates for businesses, and lower interest payments for households. And give the extent of spare capacity in the economy and the subdued inflationary pressures, there was “a low likelihood of a decline in interest rates resulting in an unexpectedly strong pick-up in inflation.”

                Instead, lowest interest rates would ” stimulate activity and thereby improve the resilience of the Australian economy to any future adverse shocks.”

                Full minutes here.

                UK PM May repeated her warnings over no-deal Brexit

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  UK Prime Minister Theresa May repeated her warning that voting down her Brexit agreement in the parliament will put the UK into “uncharted territory”. And she added, “I don’t think anybody can say exactly what will happen in terms of the reaction that we’ll see in Parliament.”

                  She also reiterated that the Irish backstop “is not intended to be used in the first place, and if it is, it’s only temporary”. And, “ensuring that we actually get the future relationship in place to replace the backstop if it’s used is actually a crucial element of this.”

                  May also reiterated her opposition to a second referendum as that would “divide our country” and require a delay to Brexit.

                  Separately, a cross party group of Conservative and Labour MPs are seeking to amend the government’s Finance Bill to ensure the “no deal” provisions in it can only be implemented if Parliament votes to allow it.

                  Debate on the Brexit agreement will resume this Wednesday, with the vote due in the week beginning January 14.

                  US consumer confidence rose to 108.3, reversing consecutive declines

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    US Conference Board Consumer Confidence rose from 101.4 to 108.3 in December. Present Situation Index rose from 138.3 to 147.2. Expectations Index rose from 76.7 to 82.4.

                    “Consumer confidence bounced back in December, reversing consecutive declines in October and November to reach its highest level since April 2022,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

                    “The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved due to consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs. Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will continue in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and interest rate hikes.”

                    Full release here.

                    ECB de Guindos: New wave of coronavirus in US a drag to global trade

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warn the news about second wave of coronavirus infections form the US is “not good”, as well as from Latin American and parts of Asia. “This is going to have a negative impact on the evolution of world trade,” he added.

                      De Guindos also noted that ECB expected global trade to drop by more than -10% in 202. For Eurozone countries that relay on external demand, the decline in trade would be a drag to them.

                      Eurozone PMI services finalized at 50.8 in Jan, remains too early to completely disregard recession risks

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 50.8 in January, up from December’s 49.8, hitting a 6-month high. PMI Composite was finalized at 50.3, up from prior month’s 49.3, a 7-month high.

                        Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI Composite rose to 3-month high at 52.0. Spain rose to 6-month high at 51.6. Italy rose to 7-month high at 51.2. Germany rose to 7-month high at 49.9. France was unchanged at 49.1.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

                        “A resumption of business output growth, even marginal, is welcome news and suggests that the eurozone could escape a recession…. However, it remains too early to completely disregard recession risks.

                        “In particular, the impact of higher interest rates on economic growth has yet to be fully felt, and many companies are relying on backlogs of previously placed orders, accumulated during the pandemic, to sustain growth.”

                        Full release here.

                        BoJ Ueda: It’s necessary to continue with monetary easing

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, in a speech today, reinforced the necessity “to continue with monetary easing” in Japan, citing the country’s vulnerability to a decelerating global economy and doubts surrounding the sustainability of wage increases.

                          Ueda cautioned against hasty modifications to the prevailing policy, emphasizing the high stakes involved. “The cost of prematurely shifting policy, and nipping the bud towards achieving 2% inflation, is extremely large,” he stated.

                          Earlier, Ueda warned the parliament about the potential fallout from a US. debt default, which he believes could trigger turbulence in markets and have a significant impact on the global economy. He assured that BoJ is committed to maintaining market stability, pledging to respond flexibly with a keen eye on economic, price, and financial developments.

                          ECB Holzmann: We may be able to normalize monetary policy sooner than most expect

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann, Bank of Austria head, said in an Eurofi Magazine article, “there is the possibility that we may be able to normalize monetary policy sooner than most financial market experts expect.” He pointed to upward price pressures which could turn into inflation expectations.

                            Holzmann added, “this does not mean that we will withdraw accommodation prematurely, but rather that accommodation will be needed for a shorter period than what markets expect.”

                            DOW hits new record on Fed Powell assurance, NASDAQ also rebounds

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              DOW surged to new record high overnight as markets took Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message from the semiannual testimony clearly. That is, Fed is in no way near stimulus exit. The economy is “a long way” from Fed’s employment and inflation targets. He reiterated that Fed “will not tighten monetary policy solely in response to a strong labor market”. Additionally, Fed aims to “achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time”.

                              DOW closed up 424.51 pts or 1.35% at 31961.86. Recent up trend has resumed with strong range breakout. For now, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 31158.76 support holds. Up trend from 18213.65 should target 61.8% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 32932.93.

                              NASDAQ also rose 132.7 pts or 0.99% to close at 13597.96. The rebound came after drawing support from 12985.05 earlier in the week. Note that NASDAQ has indeed led DOW in closing equivalent target at 14184.12 (61.8% projection of 6631.42 to 12074.06 from 10822.57 at 14186.12), earlier in the month. Hence, we might not see NASDAQ following DOW for a new high in the current move, and retake the lead. Let’s see.

                              German Ifo business climate dropped to 114.7 as threat of protectionism dampended mood in the economy

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                German Ifo business climate dropped to 114.7 in March, down from 115.4, slightly above expectation of 114.6.

                                Ifo expectation dropped to 104.4, down from 105.4, met consensus.

                                Ifo current assesment dropped to 125.9, down from 126.3, above expectation of 125.6.

                                Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe “the protectionism debate is leaving its mark.” And therefore, “export expectations have fallen to their lowest levels in more than a year.”

                                Ifo president Clemens Fuest also echoed that “the threat of protectionism is dampening the mood in the German economy,”

                                France denied that Trump told Macron on Iran deal decision

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Just earlier today, the New York times reported that Trump told French President Macron of the withdrawal of the Iran deal. And the report was “according to a person briefed on the conversation.”

                                  Then Reuters reported that Macron’s office denied the New York Times story.

                                  In the same report, Reuters said “one senior European official closely involved in Iran diplomacy told Reuters that U.S. officials had indicated late on Monday that Trump would withdraw from the agreement but it remained unclear on what terms and whether sanctions would be reimposed”.

                                  Again, unnamed source. Who to trust? When the President of the US can say something that overturn it completely the next day, you know what it’s like in the post-truth world.

                                  US PMI manufacturing rose to record 62.6, PMI services dropped to 64.8

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    US PMI Manufacturing rose to record high at 62.6, up from 62.1. PMI Services dropped to 64.8, down from 70.4. PMI Composite dropped to 63.9, down from 68.7.

                                    Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

                                    “The early PMI indicators point to further impressive growth of the US economy in June, rounding off an unprecedented growth spurt over the second quarter as a whole.

                                    “While both output growth and inflows of new orders have come off their peaks in both manufacturing and services, this is as much due to capacity constraints limiting firms’ abilities to cope with demand rather than any cooling of the economy.

                                    “Although price gauges have also slipped from May’s all-time highs, it’s clear that the economy continues to run very hot. Prices charged for goods and services are still rising very sharply, record supply shortages are getting worse rather than better, firms are fighting to fill vacancies and manufacturers’ warehouse stocks are being depleted at a worrying rate as firms struggle to meet demand.

                                    “While the second quarter will likely represent a peaking in the pace of economic growth, a concomitant peaking of inflation is far less assured.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Fed Williams: I don’t know when we will take the next policy action

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      New York Fed President John Williams said, “I see the U.S. economy recovering really nicely over the next couple of years.” But, “I don’t see inflationary pressures really building during that time.” Indeed, it would be a while before US could reach a sustained inflation rate of 2%, considering the high rates of unemployment, and other global disinflationary forces.

                                      On monetary policy, Williams said, “I don’t know when we will take the next policy action because it will be driven by what happens in the economy.

                                      UK payrolled employees rose 35k in Mar, unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in Feb

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        UK payrolled employees rose 35k in March, comparing to February. Number of payrolled employees were 544k or 1.9% above prepandemic level in February 2020. Claimant count dropped -46.9k, larger than expectation of -41.1k.

                                        In the three months to February, unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% matched expectations. That’s -0.2% lower than the previous three-month period, and -0.1% below pre-pandemic levels. Average earnings including bonus rose 5.4% over the year, below expectation of 5.7%. Average earnings excluding bonus jumped 4.0% over the year, above expectation of 3.7%.

                                        Full release here.

                                        US-China trade talks concluded after a “good few days”

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          US and China delegations ended the prolonged three-day trade negotiation meeting in Beijing with some positive signs. Ted McKinney, U.S. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, said there were a “good few days” in China, and the meeting “went just fine”. He added that “It’s been a good one for us.”

                                          Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said “extending the consultations shows that the two sides were indeed very serious in conducting the consultations.”

                                          1...136137138...659Page 137 of 659

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2024 All rights reserved.