Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said it’s a “good idea to slow down” in “today’s complex economic and financial environment”.

“That’s why I supported the decision last month to reduce the pace of rate increases. And the same considerations suggest slowing the pace further at the upcoming meeting,” she added.

“A slower pace is just a way to ensure we make the best possible decisions,” she said. “We can and, if necessary, should adjust our overall policy strategy to keep financial conditions restrictive even as the pace slows.”

She added that Fed should not “lock in” on a terminal rate. “My own view is that we will likely need to continue gradually raising the fed funds rate until we see convincing evidence that inflation is on track to return to our 2 percent target in a sustainable and timely way,” she said.

“The most important risk I see is that if we tighten too little, the economy will remain overheated, and we will fail to keep inflation in check,” Logan said.

In an essay, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic anticipates that gradual slowdown in the labor market and overall economic activity will lead to inflation decreasing to the target level of 2% by 2025, or slightly later.

Bostic mentioned that instead of maintaining the federal funds rate until the inflation target is achieved, he would prefer to start reducing the policy rate once there is clear evidence that inflation is on a definitive path towards the 2% objective.

Taking all factors into account, Bostic stated, “I continue to believe conditions will likely call for a cut in the federal funds rate in the fourth quarter of this year.”

However, he emphasized flexibility, indicating that he is “not locked into any particular policy path” and that adjustments will be based on evolving data and economic conditions.

Bostic acknowledged the possibility of varying scenarios, including more cuts, no cuts, or even a rate increase, depending on how the situation develops. “I will let the data and conditions on the ground be my guide,” highlighting the importance of data-driven decision-making in monetary policy.

Full essay of Fed’s Bostic here.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said recent economic slowdown was largely due to trade uncertainty and global weakness. And “risks to forecast are to the downside.. He added that policymakers are “watching credit conditions, which are currently robust, and the treasury curve. The downward move in the curve has been stimulative.”

He also warned that “if the Fed and policy makers waited to see that weakness in the consumer, that’s probably too late.”