Fed Daly: 50bps is the case for Sep FOMC meeting

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Bloomberg TV overnight that 50bps rate hike “is the case” for September FOMC meeting. But added, “I am open to 75 should the data evolve differently.”

    Daly didn’t expect rate cuts to quickly follow the current tightening cycle once inflation is conquered. “I don’t see this hump-shaped part where we raise interest rates to really high rates and then bring them down,” she said. “I think of raising them to a level that we think is going to be appropriate and then holding them there.”

    NZD/USD completed head and shoulder bottom, targets 0.657/9

      NZD/USD surges to as high as 0.6452 so far today and it’s still in upside acceleration mode. This week’s break of 0.6351 resistance completes a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 0.6195, h: 0.6059, rs: 0.6211). The strong break of 55 day EMA, and bullish convergence condition in daily MACD are both bullish signs too.

      Further rise is now expected as long as 0.6351 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 0.6575 cluster resistance zone (38.2% retracement of 0.7463 to 0.6059 at 0.6595). This is the major resistance zone for NZD/USD to overcome. Decisive break there will raise the chance of medium term bullish reversal. Meanwhile, rejection by 0.6575/95 will maintain medium term bearishness.

      US initial jobless claims rose 14k to 262k

        US initial jobless claims rose 14k to 262k in the week ending August 6, slightly below expectation of 265k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 4.5k to 252k.

        Continuing claims rose 8k to 1428k in the week ending July 30. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 24k to 1399k.

        Full release here.

        US PPI down -0.5% mom in Jul, slowed to 9.8% yoy

          US PPI for final demand dropped -0.5% mom in July, versus expectation of 0.2% mom rise. The decrease is attributable to -1.8% mom decline in goods while services rose 0.1% mom. For the 12-months, PPI rose 9.8% yoy, slowed from June’s 11.3% yoy.

          Prices for final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.2% mom. For the 12 months, PPI less foods, energy and trade services rose 5.8% yoy.

          Full release here.

          Fed Daly: 50bps hike in Sep is her baseline

            In an FT interview, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said , “there’s good news on the month-to-month data that consumers and business are getting some relief, but inflation remains far too high and not near our price stability goal,”

            “This is why we don’t want to declare victory on inflation coming down,” she said. “We’re not near done yet.”

            She reiterated her view that rise should rise to just under 3.5% by the end of the year. And her baseline for September FOMC meeting is a 50bps hike.

            “There is a lot of uncertainty, so leaping ahead with great confidence that [a 0.75 percentage point rate rise] is what we need and being prescriptive would not be optimal policy,” she said.

            DOW to take on 55 W EMA after strong rally

              US stocks staged a strong rally yesterday on hope that inflation has finally peaked. DOW gained 535pts or 1.63% to close at 33309.

              The development affirms the case that whole correction from January’s peak at 36952 .65 has completed with three waves down to 29653.29. 55 week EMA (now at 33169.39) is now the key hurdle to overcome. Sustained trading above that will add even more credence to the bullish case. That should set the stage for further rally to retest 36952.65 later in the year.

              For the near term, in any case, further rise is expected as long as 32387.12 support holds.

              Fed Kashkari wants rate at 3.9% by year-end, 4.4% next

                Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that in the June economic projections, he recommended interest rate at 3.9% by the end of this year, and 4.4% next. He added, “I haven’t seen anything that changes that.”

                Even after yesterday’s July CPI release, the Fed is “far away from declaring victory” on inflation, Kashkari said. “This is just the first hint that maybe inflation is starting to move in the right direction, but it doesn’t change my path.”

                “I think a much more likely scenario is we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates,” he said.

                Fed Evans: Inflation still unacceptably high, rates to rise to 3.5% by year end

                  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said today’s CPI data was the first “positive” reading since Fed started tightening. Yet, inflation is still “unacceptably” high”. He expects Fed to continue to raise interest rate to 3.25-3.50% by year end, and to 3.75-4.00 by the end of next year.

                  Evans was optimistic that the economy will “continue to grow” in H2. “”I’m not looking for the economy to turn down in a significant fashion any time soon,” he added. He expected growth to be 1.5-2.0% next year.

                  Gold breaks 1800 after US CPI

                    Gold’s rally from 1680.83 picks up some momentum after US CPI release, and breaks above 1800 handle. For now further rally is expected as long as 1764.77 support holds. Next near term target is 38.2% retracement of 2070.06 to 1680.83 at 1829.51. This fibonacci level is close to 55 week EMA (now at 1826.89).

                    Sustained break of 1826/9 will add to that case fall from 2070.06 is totally over. That will also solidify the case that whole corrective pattern from 2074.84 has completed with three waves to 1680.83. In this case, stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1921.37 next.

                    US CPI slowed to 8.5% yoy, core CPI unchanged at 5.9% yoy

                      In July, US CPI was at 0.0% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core rose 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Gasoline index dropped sharply by -7.7% mom. Energy index dropped -4.6 mom. But food index rose 1.1% mom.

                      For the last 12 months, CPI slowed from 9.1% yoy to 8.5% yoy, below expectation of 8.7% yoy. CPI core was unchanged at 5.9% yoy, below expectation of 6.1% yoy. Energy index rose 32.9% yoy, slowed from 4.16% yoy. Food index rose 10.9% yoy, highest since May 1979.

                      Full release here.

                       

                      S&P 500 pressing key resistance ahead of US CPI

                        It’s been a very quiet week in the markets so far, and today’s US consumer inflation release should bring trading back to life. Economists are expecting headline CPI to slow from 9.1% yoy to 8.7% yoy in July. But core CPI is expected to rise from 5.9% yoy to 6.1% yoy. While one data point is definitely insufficient to tell the trend, traders are still eager to get hints on whether inflation is still climbing, plateauing, or starting to reverse.

                        The next move in Dollar would very likely be driven by overall risk sentiment after the CPI release. The greenback tends to weaken in risk-on markets, and strengthen in risk-off markets. For now, as benchmark treasury yield is stuck in consolidation, reactions in stocks are more dollar-moving.

                        S&P 500 is pressing and important cluster resistance level of 4177.51, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 4182.34). Sustained trading above this 4177/82 zone will add much credence to the case that whole correction from 4818.62 has completed with three waves down to 3636.87. That would set the stage for further rally towards 4818.62 high later in the year, subject to upcoming data release of course. Nevertheless, break of last week low at 4079.891 will tentatively indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 4012.26) in the near term.

                        Fed Bullard: Too early to claim inflation has peaked

                          St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an MNI interview, “we may see some relief in the headline CPI tomorrow but the reason we tend to track core PCE inflation is exactly because we ignore the energy price movement on the way up but also on the way down.”

                          “I would like to see improvements across a range of indicators of inflation, not just one measure ticking down a little bit but clear and convincing evidence,” he said, adding that it’s going to be “much harder” to get core factors to turn around.

                          Bullard still wants to get interest rates to 3.75-4.00% range by the end of the year. “I think the destination is a little bit higher than what I would have thought even a couple months ago because inflation has continued to broaden out and doesn’t look like it’s turning the corner at least based on the evidence we have today… I think it’s too early to make the claim that inflation has peaked.”

                          BoE Ramsden: It’s more likely than not to raise rates further

                            BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said in a Reuters interview, “for me personally, it’s more likely than not that we will have to raise Bank Rate further.

                            “But I haven’t reached a firm decision on that,” he added. “I’m going to look at the indicators, look at the evidence as we approach each upcoming meeting.”

                            “I’m certainly not ruling out a situation where when we look at the risk to the economy, having been raising Bank Rate, at some point we then have to start lowering it quite quickly,” he said. “I can imagine situations, yes, where we’ll carry on… with a pace of QT in the background.”

                            Silver extends rally above 20, Gold still struggling in range

                              Silver’s rally from 18.13 resumes this week and breaks above 20 handle. In the bigger picture, 18.13 is tentatively seen as a medium term bottom, made after hitting 100% projection of 30.07 to 21.41 from 26.93 at 18.27.

                              For now further rally is expected as long as 19.54 holds. The key resistance zone lies around 22.50, which is close to 55 week EMA (now at 22.61), and 38.2% retracement of 30.07 to 18.13 at 22.69. Reaction from there will reveal whether rise from 18.13 is a corrective rebound, or the start of an up trend (the preferred case).

                              Gold is struggling in range for now, but further rally is expected as long as 1754.14 support holds. Break of 1794.68 will resume the rise from 1680.83 low. Key resistance level lies in 38.2% retracement of 2070.06 to 1680.83, which is close to 55 week EMA (now at 1826.89). Sustained break there will solidify the case that whole corrective pattern from 2074.84 has completed with three waves to 1680.83.

                              Australia NAB business confidence rose to 7, conditions rose to 20

                                Australia NAB Business Confidence rose from 2 to 7 in July. Business Conditions rose from 14 to 20. Trading conditions rose from 19 to 27. Profitability conditions rose from 13 to 17. Employment conditions rose from 11 to 17.

                                “Businesses are continuing to report that conditions are really strong,” said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. “While some of the real time data we look at is showing signs of softening, there are no signs of that in the survey with demand at a really high level. Importantly, the strength is showing up across the board in terms of industries and across the country.”

                                “Confidence bounced back in July, which was something of a surprise,” said Oster. “Inflation and rising interest rates are clouding the outlook, and there are growing concerns about the global economy, but businesses seem to have a fairly positive outlook at the moment. Forward orders are also fairly strong at +10 index points which also supports the outlook.”

                                Full release here.

                                Australia Westpac consumer sentiment dropped to 81.2 in Aug

                                  Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3% to 81.2 in August. The reading was on par with the lows of the Covid and Global Financial Crisis. Also, there was a cumulative decrease of -22.9% from recent peak made in November 2021.

                                  Economic conditions for the 12 months dropped from 80.3 to 73.9. Economic conditions for the next five years dropped from 91.6 to 90.7. Unemployment expectations index dropped from 109.8 to 103.4. House price expectations index dropped from 104.9 to 97.1.

                                  Regarding RBA’s next meeting on September 6, Westpac expects the central bank to hike by another 50bps to 2.35%, leaving the cash rate in “neutral range”. It expects RBA to then scale back the increase to 25bps per meeting until February 2023.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Ethereum breaks higher on risk-on sentiment, bitcoin lags

                                    Both ethereum and bitcoin follow generally positive market sentiment and rise as another week starts. Nevertheless, bitcoin is clearly lagging behind.

                                    Ethereum breaks through near term resistance at 1783.2 today, as rally from 878.5 low resumes. The sustained trading above 55 day EMA is a bullish signal, so is the bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current rise is seen as, at least, a correction to fall from 3577.70. Further rally is expected as long as 1578.96 support holds. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 3577.7 to 878.5 at 1909.5. Decisive break there will raise the chance of medium term reversal, and target 2157.05 support turned resistance next.

                                    Bitcoin also rallies today but it’s stuck below near term resistance at 24949. It has yet gotten rid of 55 day EMA clearly. Nevertheless, there is still upside prospect as helped by the rally in ethereum. Break of 24949 will target 38.2% retracement of 48226 to 17575 at 29283.

                                    Eurozone Sentix improved to -25.2, but recession still very likely

                                      Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved slightly from -26.4 to -25.2 in August, better than expectation of -26.3. Current Situation index ticked up from -16.5 to -16.3. Expectations index also edged up from -35.8 to -33.8.

                                      However, Germany Investor Confidence dropped from -24.2 to -24.4, lowest since May 2020. Current Situation index dropped from -13.0 to -14.8, lowest since February 2021. Expectations index, on the other hand, ticked up from -34.8 to -33.5.

                                      Sentix said, the improvement in Eurozone “does not mean that the all-clear has been given”. And, “a recession in the Eurozone is still very likely.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      RBNZ 2-yr inflation expectation dropped to 3.07% in Q3

                                        According to the latest RBNZ Survey of Expectations, the one-year-out inflation was relatively unchanged at 4.86% in Q3, down from Q2’s 4.88%. Expectations were still much higher than Q1’s 4.4% and Q4’s 3.7%.

                                        However, two-year-out inflation expectation has fallen significantly to 3.07% in Q3, down from Q2’s 3.29%. That’s already below Q1’s 3.27% but still above Q4’s 2.96%.

                                        Still, the most watched 2 year expectation sit above RBNZ’s target range. There is no change in market expectation that RBNZ would deliver another 50bps rate hike on August 17.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Fed Daly: Most important risk out there is inflation

                                          San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a CBS New interview, “if you’re out in the economy, you don’t feel like you’re in a recession. That’s the bottom line. The most important risk out there is inflation. And I think the job market just confirms that.”

                                          She added that a 50bps hike in September is still “absolutely” appropriate. “And we need to be data dependent. It could. We need to leave our minds open. We have two more inflation reports coming out, another jobs report. We continue to collect all the information from the context we talk to you to see how this is working its way through the economy,” She said.

                                          Full transcript of the interview here.