US non-farm payrolls as the key focus today

    US non-farm payrolls report will be the main feature today. Markets expect 194k job growth in April. Unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.1% to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% mom. Pre-NFP job data saw ADP job grew solid 204k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing and services dropped to 53.6 and 54.2 respectively, both showing slowdown but still well in expansion territory. Weekly jobless claims have been exceptionally low in the prior weeks.

    There isn’t much concern on the headline number as the most other data pointed to healthy employment market. Instead, there could be a pleasant surprise of upward revision in March’s dismal figure of 103K. Wage growth will likely continue to be the market mover.

    Below are the charts on March data (released on April 6).

    China CBIRC Guo: Can absolutely open financial market access to US

      China’s top banking regulator said today that it can “absolutely” reach an agreement top open up the financial sector to the US. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said “On the opening of the financial sector, China and the United States absolutely can reach agreement. Though at present there may be a few small disagreements, the problems are not that great”

      Separately, Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said trade talks have achieved a breakthrough in some areas. While the negotiations were difficult, Zhong said both teams are continuing with their work.

      Tentative deal reached to avert another US government shutdown, with border fencing

        A tentative deal was agreed yesterday between the Republicans and Democrats to avert another partial government shutdown this Saturday. But the agreement does not include the USD 5.7B funding for the border wall that Trump demanded.

        No detail is provided for the deal yet. But based on unnamed source, there would be USD 1.375B in funding for new fencing along the southern border of the US. That is around the same amount the Congress allocated last year.

        Also, it’s reported that only currently deployed design could be used for 90km of additional barriers, which might include steel bollard fencing.

        ECB previews and a look at EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP

          Main focus for today’s ECB monetary policy decision in on the outlook of the PEPP purchases after June. The central bank significantly stepped up the pace of purchases in Q2, partly in response to the surge in sovereign yields earlier this year. The move has kept yield stable and helped improvement in the economy. Outlook also brightened with accelerated vaccination. Yet, policy makers will more likely play safe than not and maintain the current pace of purchases first, while emphasizing the flexibility of the program.

          Here are some suggested previews:

          In terms of market reactions, we’d pay close attention to two European crosses, EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP. EUR/CHF dropped further ahead of the meeting and is now trading slightly below a key cluster support zone at 1.0915 (38.2% retracement 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0903). Deeper selloff would also push EUR/CHF through the medium term channel support, which could bring downside acceleration. That would, at least, indicate that fall from 1.1149 is a deeper correction to whole up trend from 1.0505. Deeper fall could then be seen to 1.0737 support zone (61.8% retracement at 1.0751).

          On the other hand, outlook in EUR/GBP is slightly more bullish as the price actions from 0.8718 are rather corrective. It argues that rebound fro 0.8470 is not over yet. But some committed buying is needed to push EUR/GBP through 55 day EMA firmly first. Break of 0.8670 would indeed argue that such rise is ready to resume through 0.8718. If that happens, EUR/CHF could also be given a lift back above mentioned 1.0903/15 key support zone. We’ll see which way it plays out.

          BoE Vlieghe: Easing lockdown insufficient to bring back economic activity

            BoE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe said in the annual report to Treasury Select Committee of Parliament, from different pandemic experiences, it’s “not just the economic lockdown that suppresses economic activity”. There’s also a “large behavioural response of households and firms to the prevalence of the virus, which suppresses demand for certain types of economic activity even without any lockdown measures in place.” Thus, “easing lockdown measures is not sufficient to bring back economic activity.”

            He also warned, “the longer the virus remains prevalent enough to affect patterns of consumption, investment and employment, the higher the likelihood that some sectors will not be able to return to their previous level of activity”. That would “imply that demand in other sectors needs to rise sufficiently to use up the resulting spare capacity in the labour force and in other inputs”. Such “reorientation of the economy towards a difference sectorial composition” is likely to be a slow process.

            “Based on these considerations, there is a material risk in my view that it could take several years for the economy to return to full capacity and inflation to return sustainably to target, even with monetary policy at its current settings.”

            Full report here.

             

            UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 46.2, 17th month of contraction

              UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 46.2 in December, down from November’s 47.2. This marks the seventeenth consecutive month where the index has remained below the neutral 50 threshold, indicating ongoing contraction. According to S&P Global, key aspects such as output, new orders, and employment are all in decline. Additionally, business optimism has reached a 12-month low.

              Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, pointed out demand environment remains challenging, with new orders continuing to decline due to difficult conditions in both domestic and key export markets, particularly the European Union.

              The downturn is prompting companies to adopt a more cautious approach to costs. There have been notable cutbacks in stock levels, purchasing, and employment as firms grapple with the ongoing challenges.

              Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

              US-China trade talks to resume in Beijing on Apr 30, Kudlow said cautiously optimistic but not there yet

                The White House announced that Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing to on April 30 to continue trade talks. China’s team will again be led by Vice Premier Liu He. Liu is expected to fly to Washington on May 8 for additional discussions. In the statement, it’s noted that “the subjects of next week’s discussions will cover trade issues including intellectual property, forced technology transfer, non-tariff barriers, agriculture, services, purchases, and enforcement.”

                Earlier yesterday, Larry Kudlow, Director of the White House National Economic Council, said the negotiations were making progress and he was “cautiously optimistic” on striking a deal. He hailed that “we’ve come further and deeper, broader, larger-scale than anything in the history of U.S.-China trade.”

                But Kudlow also noted that “We’re not there yet”. “We’re still working on the issues, so-called structural issues, technology transfers”. Also, “ownership enforcement is absolutely crucial. Lowering barriers to buy and sell agriculture and industrial commodities. It’s all on the table.”

                Fed Kashkari wants rate at 3.9% by year-end, 4.4% next

                  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that in the June economic projections, he recommended interest rate at 3.9% by the end of this year, and 4.4% next. He added, “I haven’t seen anything that changes that.”

                  Even after yesterday’s July CPI release, the Fed is “far away from declaring victory” on inflation, Kashkari said. “This is just the first hint that maybe inflation is starting to move in the right direction, but it doesn’t change my path.”

                  “I think a much more likely scenario is we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates,” he said.

                  US ISM manufacturing ticked down to 52.8, prices fell to acceptable level at 60.0

                    US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 53.0 to 52.8 in July, above expectation of 52.0. Looking at some details, new orders dropped -1.2 to 48.0. Production dropped -1.4 to 53.5. Employment rose 2.6 to 49.9. Prices dropped sharply by -18.5 to 60.0.

                    ISM said: “”The U.S. manufacturing sector continues expanding — though slightly less so in July — as new order rates continue to contract, supplier deliveries improve and prices soften to acceptable levels.”

                    “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for July (52.8 percent) corresponds to a 1.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                    Full release here.

                    Canada Trudeau: Working on the right NAFTA deal as quickly as we can

                      September 30 is seen by some as the deadline for completing US-Canada NAFTA negotiation. The legal text has to be produced by October 1 so as for the current Mexican government to sign before leaving office on November 30. But Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau brushed off the deadline.

                      He said yesterday that “we have seen various deadlines put forward as markers to work for.” And, “we’ll do the work and try and get there as quick as we can, but we’re going to make sure that we’re doing what is necessary to get the right deal for Canadians.”

                      Also, Trump appeared to have mused about renaming NAFTA to USMC, and said the “C” could be dropped if Canada didn’t sign on. Trudeau said there were “things that we’re working on very seriously, rolling up our sleeves on. I don’t think we’ve spent much time talking about what the name or potential name or renaming could be.”

                      US oil inventories dropped -4.7m barrels, WTI breaches 43.38 resistance

                        US commercial crude oil inventories dropped -4.7m barrels in the week ending August 21, larger than expectation of -3.4m barrels. At 507.8m barrels, oil inventories are about 15% above the five year average for this time of the year. Motor gasoline dropped -4.6m barrels. Distillate rose 1.4m barrels. Propane/propylene rose 1.5m barrels. Commercial petroleum dropped -7.8m barrels.

                        WTI breaches 43.38 near term top after the release but there is no clear follow through buying yet. 4 hour MACD’s break of the trend line resistance is a sign of positive development. But we’d emphasize that it’s now close to 55 week EMA at 43.92. We won’t be too bullish for now unless this EMA is taken out decisively.

                        Canada CPI rose to 3.4% yoy in April, ex-energy rose to 1.6% yoy

                          Canada CPI surged to 3.4% yoy in April, up from March’s 2.2% yoy, above expectation of 3.2% yoy. Statistics Canada said that “a significant proportion of this increase was attributable to a steep decline in prices in April 2020, as the monthly CPI rose 0.5% in April 2021”. Excluding energy, CPI rose 1.6% yoy, up from 1.1% yoy.

                          CPI common rose to 1.7% yoy, up from 1.5% yoy, matched expectations. CPI median rose to 2.3% yoy, up from 2.1% yoy, above expectation of 2.1% yoy. CPI trimmed rose to 2.3% yoy, up from 2.2% yoy, matched expectations.

                          Full release here.

                          Into US session: Global stocks recover, focus turns to US retail sales

                            Entering into US session, Swiss Franc and Yen are among the weakest today as global stocks recover. Sterling is also soft  as traders turned cautious ahead of crucial Brexit votes this week. UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s just confirmed that the Brexit deal meaningful vote will happen tomorrow. And, talks with EU on a solution to the Irish backstop were continuing. Meanwhile, Euro recovers broadly today but upside is relatively limited.

                            Released in European session, German industrial production dropped -0.8% mom in January versus expectation of 0.50% mom. Trade surplus narrowed to EUR 18.5B in January. From Asia, Japan machine tools orders dropped -29.3% yoy in February, M2 rose 2.4%. Focus will now turn to January retail sales fro the US. December’s numbers were disastrous and we’ll see if sales rebound this year.

                            In Europe, currently:

                            • FTSE is up 0.58%.
                            • DAX is up 0.40%.
                            • CAC is up 0.35%.
                            • German 10-year yield is down -0.0026 at 0.068.

                            Earlier in Asia:

                            • Nikkei rose 0.47%.
                            • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.97%.
                            • China Shanghai SSE rose 1.92% to 3026.99, back above 3000.
                            • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.14%.
                            • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0033 to -0.035.

                            US PCE rose to 1.6%, core PCE rose to 1.6%

                              US personal income rose 0.2% in December, below expectation of 0.3%. Personal spending rose 0.3%, matched expectations. Headline PCE accelerated to 1.6% yoy, up from 1.4% yoy, missed expectation of 1.7% yoy. Core PCE rose to 1.6% yoy, matched expectations.

                              Full release here.

                              Fed Kaplan wants tapering soon, but not aggressive on rate

                                Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told Reuters that, “as long as we continue to make progress in July numbers and in August jobs numbers, I think we’d be better off to start adjusting these purchases soon,” referring to the QE program.

                                He added that tapering over a time frame of “plus or minus” about eight months would help give the Fed ” as much flexibility as possible to be patient and be flexible on the Fed funds rate.”

                                He emphasized it’s “important to divorce discussion of the Fed funds rate from discussion of our purchases.” His comments on purchases are not intended to suggest I want to take more aggressive action on the Fed funds rate.”

                                Into US session: CHF & JPY strongest, AUD weakest as new tariffs on China loom

                                  Entering into US session, Swiss Franc and Yen are the strongest ones for today so far as risk aversion dominates. DOW future is pointing to another gap down in US markets. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will try to save the trade deal in Washington as new round of tariffs loom tomorrow. The France is give an additional lift on weakness in both German yield and China Yuan. Euro, remains rather resilient though.

                                  On the other hand, Australian Dollar is the worst performing one for today, followed by Canadian and then Sterling. In particular, the lift from RBA’s standing pat earlier this week was rather brief. AUD/USD looks set to break through 0.6962 low soon, should trade war escalation materializes.

                                  In Europe, currently:

                                  • FTSE is down -0.75%.
                                  • DAX is down -1.20%.
                                  • CAC is down -1.56%.
                                  • German 10-year yield is down -0.019 at -0.061.

                                  Earlier in Asia:

                                  • Nikkei dropped -0.93%.
                                  • Hong Kong HSI dropped -2.39%.
                                  • China Shanghai SSE dropped -1.48%.
                                  • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.43%.
                                  • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0053 to -0.046 l

                                  US initial jobless claims dropped to 3169k, continuing claims rose to 22.6m

                                    US initial jobless claims dropped -667k to 3169k in the week ending May 2. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -861.5k to 4173.5k.

                                    Continuing claims rose 4636k to 22647k in the week ending April 25. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3800k to 17098k.

                                    Full release here.

                                    US PCE inflation slowed to 6.3% yoy, core PCE down to 4.9% yoy

                                      US personal income rose 0.5% mom, or USD 89.3B, in April, below expectation of 0.6% mom. Personal spending rose 0.9% mom, or USD 152.3B, above expectation of 0.7% mom.

                                      Headline PCE price index slowed from 6.6% yoy to 6.3% yoy, below expectation of 6.6% yoy. Core PCE price index slowed from 5.2% yoy to 4.9% yoy, matched expectations. Energy prices rose 30.4% yoy while food prices rose 10.0% yoy.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Chinese Premier Li: Trade war is never a solution

                                        In response to the start of US section 301 tariffs on USD 34B in Chinese import, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said in a daily media briefing that “after the United States unfairly raised tariffs against China, China immediately put into effect raised tariffs on some U.S. goods.” Lu also reiterated that “On the specifics of the trade issue, from the start China’s position has been very clear and consistent. The United States at all levels is very clear on China’s position,”

                                        Commenting on the issue, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in Bulgaria that trade war is “never a solution” and there will be no winner. And, “it benefits no one and it would undermine the multilateral free trade process,” he said. “If one insists on waging a trade war it would hurt others and themselves.”

                                        He reiterated that China is committed to further opening up its markets. But, “if any party resorts to increase of tariffs, china would take measures in response to protect china development interests and safeguard multilateral trade regime and rules.”

                                        A look at EURGBP and GBPJPY ahead of UK CPI

                                          It’s now less than an hour before UK CPI release. The piece of data is even more important after yesterday’s wage growth miss. To recap, headline CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.7% yoy in March. Core CPI is expected to rise to 2.5% yoy, up from 2.4% yoy.

                                          So far, expectations on May BoE hike are firm. According to the latest Reuters poll, all but 7 of the 76 economists surveyed expected a 25bps hike in the Bank rate to 0.75% in May. Barring any disastrous result today, BoE should still be on course for a May hike. The question is indeed on whether BoE would hike again in November.

                                          Technically, GBP’s rally stalled this week, particular clear against EUR and JPY.

                                          61.8% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8745 from 0.8967 at 0.8621 is so far a difficult level to break.

                                          But from the EURGBP action bias table and D action bias chart, downside momentum remains firm. It should be just a matter of time that this 0.8621 level is taken out.

                                          GBP/JPY also stalled after hitting 153.84.

                                          But near term strengthen is quite apparent as seen in GBPJPY action bias table and D action bias chart.

                                          Hence, while a CPI miss today might trigger setback in GBP, that should be temporary. On the other hand, GBP could skyrocket if we get something that beat market expectations.