China said very close to phase 1 trade deal with US, committed to phase 2 and beyond

    The Global Times, China’s hawkish tabloid run by the ruling Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, said in a tweet that US and China are “very close” to the phase one trade deal. China “remains committed to continuing talks for a phase two or even a phase three deal”with US “on equal footing”.

    Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang also reiterated that China hopes to work with US on a basis of equality and mutual respect on the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations.

    The comments came after Reuters reported that some Chinese and US officials believed the ambitious “phase two” trade deal is looking less likely as the two countries struggle to strike a preliminary agreement.

    Hong Kong stocks lead Asia higher after pro-democracy voters score landslide victory

      Hong Kong stocks lead Asian markets generally higher in reaction to the results of Sunday’s district council elections. While the district councils have few real powers, the elections are seen as a referendum on the current unrest, and a confidence vote on the government.

      The ballot saw record turnout of 71% with 2.94 million people casting their votes. Pro-democracy candidates won 388 of 446 seats, i.e., near 87%. That’s a huge jump from 125 seats they won back in 2015. On the other hand, the pro-Beijing camp won only 58 seats, down from 299 in 2015.

      The elections results should put extra pressure on the Chinese and Hong Kong government to answer the five demands of the protesters. The government will have “no excuse” not to appoint a commission of inquiry on all that happened regarding the extradition bill, including police brutality. Such development would offer some hope for ending the near six month unrest in the city.

      The Hong Kong HSI gaps up in Monday’s trading and is currently up 1.76%. Despite the rebound, there is no change in the overall technical outlook. Corrective rise from 24889.93 should have completed at 27894.68. Hence, another decline is still in favor. Break of 26203.97 support will affirm this bearish case and target a test on 24889.93 low next.

      US still hoping to get phase 1 trade deal with China done by end of year

        There are increasing speculations that the completion of the phase one US-China trade deal would slide into next year. China is said to be refraining concrete commitment on farm purchases, while pushing for more extensive tariffs rollbacks. At the same time, tensions between the two countries increased due to unrest in Hong Kong.

        US national security adviser Robert O’Brien said over the weekend “We were hoping to have [a phase one] deal done by the end of the year. I still think that’s possible”. Though, he also emphasized, “at the same time, we’re not going to turn a blind eye to what’s happening in Hong Kong or what’s happening in the South China Sea, or other areas of the world where we’re concerned about China’s activity.”

        Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the “ambitious” phase two deal looks increasing less likely for now. An unnamed Chinese office was quoted saying that “It’s Trump who wants to sign these deals, not us. We can wait.” China might want to drag on with phase two negotiations to see if Trump could win a second term in next year’s election.

        Sterling recovers as Johnson pledges to get Brexit done

          Sterling recovers mildly after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s fresh Brexit promise. Launching his election manifesto in the central English town of Telford, he said “Get Brexit done and we shall see a pent up tidal wave of investment into this country. Get Brexit done and we can focus our hearts and our minds on the priorities of the British people.”

          UK is heading to snap election on December 12, Johnson is targeting to bring the Brexit deal back to the parliament before Christmas. He also pledged, “we will not extend the implementation period beyond December 2020”.

          Canada retail sales dropped for the first time in three months

            Canada retail sales dropped for the first time in three months, by -0.1% mom to CAD 51.6B in September. Though, that was better than expectation of -0.3% mom fall. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.2% mom, above expectation of -0.1% mom.

            Retail sales were down in Alberta (-1.6%) and New Brunswick (-3.7%). In Quebec, retail sales increased 0.7%. In the census metropolitan area (CMA) of Montréal, sales were up 0.6%. Retail sales in Ontario (+0.3%) continued their upward trend, increasing for the seventh time in eight months. In the CMA of Toronto, retail sales were up 1.5%.

            Full release here.

            ECB Lagarde urges common response to meet Eurozone challenges

              In the first speech as ECB President, Christine Lagarde urged Eurozone states to meet the common challenges with a “common response” of a “new European policy mix”. Monetary policy is the first element and ECB will “continue to support the economy and respond to future risks in line with our price stability mandate” and “continuously monitor the side effects”.

              Another key element is fiscal policy which is “not just about the aggregate stance of public spending, but also its composition.”. Investment is a “particularly important part” of the responses. She added that public investment in the Eurozone remains “some way below its pre-crisis levels” and the share of “productive expenditure” also dropped. Both national policies and European programs like Invest EU has a “role to play.”

              Also, “empowering our internal market also means completing our Economic and Monetary Union.” Completing EMU is about finding the right trade-off: enough protection against moral hazard to discourage under-saving, but enough mutual insurance to prevent over-saving.

              Lagarde’s full speech here.

              UK PMI composite dropped to 48.5, 40-month low, points to -0.2% quarterly GDP contraction

                UK PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.3 in November, down from 49.7, missed expectation of 48.8. PMI Services dropped to 48.6, down from 50.0, and missed expectation of 50.1. That’s also the lowest reading in 40 month. PMI Composite dropped to 48.5, down form 50.0, hitting a 40-month low.

                Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

                “With an upcoming general election adding to Brexit-related uncertainty about the outlook, it’s no surprise to see UK businesses reporting falling output and orders in November. The decline signalled by the flash PMI follows stagnation in October and adds to what has been the survey’s worst spell since the recession of 2008-9.

                “The weak survey data puts the economy on course for a 0.2% drop in GDP in the fourth quarter, and also pushes the PMI further into territory that would normally be associated with the Bank of England adding more stimulus to the economy.

                “While Brexit issues such as stock-building and car factory closures have led to volatile GDP data so far this year, making monetary policymaking especially difficult and encouraging the Bank of England to sit on its hands until the fog clears, the PMI surveys are not only warning that the underlying trend in the economy is deteriorating markedly, but also that the labour market is cooling. A worsening jobs market has the potential to feed through to weaker consumer spending and slower wage growth, thereby undermining two of the key supports to the economy in recent months. The big question will be just how long can the Bank of England hold its nerve in keeping policy unchanged.”

                Full release here.

                Eurozone PMI composite down 0.3 to 50.3, indicative of 0.1% quarterly GDP growth

                  Eurozone PMI Manufacturing rose to 46.6 in November, up from 45.9, beat expectation of 46.4. PMI Services dropped to 51.5, down from 52.2, missed expectation of 52.5. PMI Composite dropped to 50.3, down from 50.6.

                  Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

                  “The eurozone economy remained becalmed for a third successive month in November, with the lacklustre PMI indicative of GDP growing at a quarterly rate of just 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the third quarter.

                  “Manufacturing remains in its deepest downturn for six years amid ongoing trade woes, and November saw further signs of the weakness spilling over to services, notably via slower employment growth. “Resilient jobs growth had provided a key support to the more domestically-focused service sector earlier in the year, but with employment now rising at its slowest pace since early-2015, it’s not surprising to see the service sector now also struggling.

                  “Tentative signs of life in the core eurozone countries of France and Germany are welcome news, as is an easing in the manufacturing downturn, but a fresh concern is that the rest of the region has slipped into decline for the first time since 2013.

                  “Business remains concerned by trade wars, Brexit and a general slowdown in demand, with heightened uncertainty about the economic and political outlook driving further risk aversion.”

                  Full release here.

                  Germany PMI services dropped to 38-month low, manufacturing remains firmly in contraction

                    Germany PMI Manufacturing rose to 48.3 in November, up from 42.1, beat expectation of 43.0. However, PMI Services dropped to 51.3, down from 51.6, missed expectation of 52.0. That’s also a 38-month low. PMI Composite rose to 49.2, up from 48.9, hit a 3-month high.

                    Commenting on the flash PMI data, Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit said:

                    “Beneath the subdued headline numbers the data show another slight convergence between the more domestically-focused service sector and export-led manufacturing.

                    “While still showing a degree of resilience, the service sector is growing only modestly and at its slowest rate for over three years. By contrast, manufacturing remains firmly in contraction, but many of the indicators here are at least moving in the right direction and it would seem the worst of the downturn is over barring any shocks.

                    “A lack of employment growth remains a worry, but the survey data do at least point to support to consumer spending from low inflation and rising wages.”

                    Full release here.

                    France PMI composite up 0.1 to 52.7, positive economic picture maintained

                      France PMI Manufacturing rose to 51.6 in November, up from 50.7 and beat expectation of 50.8. PMI Services was unchanged at 52.9, missed expectation of 53.0. PMI Composite rose to 52.7, up from 52.6.

                      Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Eliot Kerr, Economist at IHS Markit said:

                      “Another solid expansion in private sector activity maintains the positive economic picture seen in France over the past few months. Moreover, another increase in new orders and a faster rise in backlogs of work points to strong underlying demand and further growth ahead.

                      A notable finding from the latest PMI survey was the broad improvement across the manufacturing sector. On the whole, there was a narrower disparity in performance compared to the service sector, with a particularly positive result seen in new orders. The latest data provide good news for a sector that has recorded relatively subdued growth for well over a year.”

                      Full release here.

                      Japan CPI core edged up to 0.4%, well below BoJ’s target

                        Japan CPI core (all item ex-fresh food) rose to 0.4% yoy in October, up from 0.3%, matched expectations. All item CPI was unchanged at 0.2% yoy, missed expectation of 0.3% yoy. CPI core-core (all item ex-fresh food, energy), rose to 0.7%, up from 0.5%, beat expectation of 0.6% yoy.

                        The inflation subdued inflation reading suggests that the sales tax hike in the month had little impact on prices, and is unlikely o derail consumer spending. Yet the core inflation reading remains well below BoJ’s 2% target. The central will need to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for a prolonged period. But even so, there is little evidence to show that inflation could sustainably hit the target with current stimulus.

                        Japan PMI composite rose to 48.6, strong possibility of Q4 GDP contraction

                          Japan PMI Manufacturing rose to 48.6 in November, up from 48.4, but missed expectation of 48.7. PMI Services rose to 50.4, up from 49.7. PMI Composite also improved to 48.6, up from 48.4.

                          Joe Hayes, Economists at IHS Markit, noted: October PMI data was difficult to interpret as a result of the temporary negative shocks by the sales tax and typhoon. However, we can deduce from the November PMI data that there is a strong possibility of Japan’s economy contracting in the fourth quarter. We have seen little rebound following these temporary factors, especially in the service sector where the impact of the tax rise and poor weather was most prominent:.

                          Full release here.

                          Australia PMI composite dropped to 49.5, renewed fall in private sector output

                            Australia CBA PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.9 in November, down from 50.0. PMI Services dropped to 49.5, down from 50.1. PMI Composite dropped to 49.5, down form 50.0. The data signalled a renewed fall in private sector output. Declines were seen across both manufacturing and service sectors.

                            Commenting on the Commonwealth Bank Flash PMI data, CBA Chief Economist, Michael Blythe said:

                            “Activity in the key manufacturing and services sectors continues to bounce around the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. This is a particularly disappointing result when benchmarked against interest rate cuts, tax cuts, rising house prices and a still solid labour market”.

                            “Readings on new orders and employment offer a glimmer of positive news. But the challenges faced by Australian businesses are evident in the accelerating growth in input prices and the slowing trend in output prices. Competitive pressures and weak demand are taking a toll”.

                            Full release here.

                            Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 10.4

                              Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey diffusion index rose to 10.4 in November, up from 5.6, beat expectation of 7.0. The percentage of firms reporting increases (30 percent) this month exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (20 percent). While the general activity index showed improvement, indicators for new orders, shipments, and employment decreased from last month’s readings.

                              Full release here.

                              US initial jobless claims unchanged at 227k, abv 217k expectation

                                US initial jobless claims were unchanged at 227k in the week ending November 16, above expectation of 217k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 3.5k to 221k.

                                Continuing claims rose 3k to 1.695m in the week ending November 9. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3k to 1.693m.

                                Full release here.

                                ECB accounts: Stimulus measures should be allowed more time to unfold effects

                                  In the accounts of ECB’s October 23-24 meeting, it’s noted that incoming information confirmed “the pronounced slowdown in euro area economic growth and a continued shortfall of inflation”. That vindicated the new monetary stimulus package announced back in September’s meeting. “Confidence” was expressed that the package would provide “substantial monetary stimulus”. But the measures “should be allowed more time” to fully unfold their effects.

                                  Looking ahead, a strong call was made for unity of the Governing Council” as it’s important to “form a consensus” to unite behind the commitment on inflation target. And there was call on “other policymakers”, in particular fiscal policy”, “notably of governments with fiscal space, had to play a more prominent role to stabilise economic conditions in view of the weakening economic outlook and the continued prominence of downside risks.

                                  Full accounts here.

                                  OECD downgrades global GDP forecast, but upgrades Eurozone and China

                                    OECD warned that trade conflict, weak business investment and persistent political uncertainty are weighing on the world economy and raising the risk of long-term stagnation. Global GDP growth for 2020 was revised down by 0.1% to 2.9%, same as this year, lowest annual rate since the financial crisis. That’s also a sharp slowdown from 3.5% back in 2018.

                                    OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said: “It would be a mistake to consider these changes as temporary factors that can be addressed with monetary or fiscal policy: they are structural. Without coordination for trade and global taxation, clear policy directions for the energy transition, uncertainty will continue to loom large and damage growth prospects.”

                                    OECD Secretary-General Angel GurrĂ­a said: “The alarm bells are ringing loud and clear. Unless governments take decisive action to help boost investment, adapt their economies to the challenges of our time and build an open, fair and rules-based trading system, we are heading for a long-term future of low growth and declining living standards.”

                                    Look at some details:

                                    Global GDP growth is projected at

                                    • 2.9% in 2019 (unchanged).
                                    • 2.9% in 2020 (down from September’s 3.0%).
                                    • 3.0% in 2021 (new).

                                    G20 GDP:

                                    • 3.1% in 2019 (unchanged).
                                    • 3.2% in 2020 (unchanged).
                                    • 3.3% in 2021 (new).

                                    US GDP:

                                    • 2.3% in 2019 (down from 2.4%).
                                    • 2.0% in 2020 (unchanged).
                                    • 2.0% in 2021 (new).

                                    Eurozone GDP:

                                    • 1.2% in 2019 (up from 1.1%).
                                    • 1.1% in 2020 (up from 1.0%).
                                    • 1.2% in 2021 (new).

                                    China GDP:

                                    • 6.2% in 2019 (up from 6.1%).
                                    • 5.7% in 2020 (unchanged).
                                    • 5.5% in 2021 (new).

                                    China working on phase 1 trade deal, inviting US trade officials to visit again

                                      Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng reiterated at that China is willing to work with US to address each other’s core concerns to reach the phase one trade deal. And, “this is in line with the interests of both China and the United States, and of the world”. Gao also dismissed “outside rumors” regarding farm purchases and tariff rollbacks a sticking points as “not accurate”.

                                      WSJ reported that China has invited top US trade negotiators for another round of face-to-face meeting in Beijing, preferably before next Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. But US have indicated that they’re only willing to travel if China would make clear its commitments on intellectual property protection, forced technology transfers and agricultural purchases.

                                      Separately, on the issue of Hong Kong, China continued to express strong objections to the passage of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Geng Shuang, spokesman at Foreign Ministry, said “we urge the U.S. side to cease this activity, stop before it’s too late and take measures to prevent these measures from becoming law, stop meddling in Hong Kong’s affairs and China’s affairs”. He added, “If they must insist on going down this wrong path China will take strong counter-measures.”

                                      Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act now on Trump’s table for signing

                                        Hong Kong could be a key factor complicating the trade negotiations. Earlier in Tuesday, Senate passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act unanimously, aiming at backing Hongkongers in protecting their autonomy. On Wednesday, House abandoned their version unanimously passed a month ago, adopted the Senate version, and passed swiftly with 417 to 1 votes. Trump will have 10 days, excluding Sunday, to sign the bill. It’s believed that with the near unanimous votes, there is no reason for Trump to veto the bill.

                                        The bipartisan support to Hong Kong drew fierce response from China. The Chinese Communist Party’s main newspaper, the People’s Daily, urged the United States to “rein in the horse at the edge of the precipice” and stop interfering in Hong Kong matters and China’s internal affairs. It warned, “if the US. side obstinately clings to its course, the Chinese side will inevitably adopt forceful measures to take resolute revenge, and all consequences will be borne by the United States”.

                                        Uncertain if US-China trade deal phase 1 would be completed this year

                                          The status of US-China trade agreement phase-one is back into question with recent comments. It’s even unsure if the negotiations could be completed within this year. December 15 is the next key date, when tariffs on around USD 156B of Chinese goods are scheduled to take effect.

                                          According to a Bloomberg report, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said at a dinner Wednesday night that he was “cautiously optimistic”. Zhang Yansheng, the principal researcher of China Center for International Economic Exchanges said today that the phase-one could be reached this year is there is “no disturbance”. he added, “The optimistic view is that the phase-one deal can be reached within this year, and a more pessimistic one is that the first phase will be dragged to some point next year.” But Hu Xijin, the editor of the state-backed Chinese tabloid Global Times, warned “few Chinese believe that China and the US can reach a deal soon.” He added, “China wants a deal but is prepared for the worst-case scenario, a prolonged trade war.”

                                          On the US side, President Donald Trump complained to reporters in Texas that “I don’t think they’re stepping up to the level that I want.” White House spokesman Judd Deere said “negotiations are continuing and progress is being made on the text of the phase-one agreement”, without further elaboration.