ECB to turn cautious but no change in forward guidance yet

    ECB rate decision and press conference is a main focus for today. No change is expected in monetary policy. And the main refinancing rate will be held at 0.00%.

    As recent economic data pointed to further weakness in the Eurozone economy, ECB president Mario Draghi might turn a bit more cautious or even dovish in the press conference.

    Market has already pushed back their expectations on the first rate hike to mid-2020. But, ECB is still unlikely to make any change to the forward guidance. That is, ECB will reiterate that interest rates will stay at present level at least through summer of 2019. ECB probably would wait for more incoming data before making such a change.

    Here are some suggested previews on ECB:

    Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 50, exports drop steepest in over 2.5 years

      Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 50.0 in December, down from 52.6. That also marked the end of the longest expansionary run for over a decade. In particular, exports decline at strongest pace in two-and-a-half years. And, production scaled back for first time since July 2016, while confidence lowest in over six years.

      Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey, said:

      “Preliminary PMI data for January bodes ill for Japan’s manufacturing sector, indicating the end of a near two-and-a-half-year growth run as the index dropped to 50.0. The underlying picture will raise concern given renewed reductions were seen in new orders and output. Further signs that the downturn in the global trade cycle could yet worsen were also signalled, with new export orders falling at the sharpest rate since July 2016. The widely-anticipated rebound in Q4 should not distract from the bigger picture. Domestic economic weakness compounded with slowing global growth coincided with the lowest level of business confidence for over six years.”

      Full release here.

      Australia job growth driven by part time jobs, participation rate fell

        Australia job market grew 21.6k in December, above expectation of 18.1k. Full-time jobs, however, dropped -3k. Part-time jobs rose 24.6k. Unemployment rate dropped -0.1% to 5.0%, better than expectation of 5.0%. That equals the lowest level in more than 6 years, as touched back in September and October. However, participation rate dropped by -0.1% to 65.6%.

        Full release here.

        While the set of data was solid, it isn’t too encouraging and paints no sign of tightening in the Australian job market. AUD/USD dips through 0.7116 minor support, which suggests completion of rebound form flash crash low at 0.6722. Further downside would be seen in the pair.

        BoE Haldane: People to take finger of pause button, if some Brexit deal is done

          BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane said in a newspaper interview that “if the economy continues to tick along, as we expect, then we might expect some further limited and gradual rises”.

          In particular, if some Brexit deal is done, “that would reduce uncertainty and, we think, cause people to take their finger of the pause button and do a bit more investment spending”.

          And if the economy begins to “change direction, “we will be flexible in the face of that.”

          BoC Poloz: Timing of next rate hike depends on how the economy responds to the shocks

            BoC Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated that more rate hikes are warranted for the central bank. But the timing would be “data dependent” and “it will depend on how the economy responds to the shocks we’ve described.” He referred to developments including Canada’s housing market, trade tensions and import of lower oil prices.

            In particular, Poloz noted the past increase interest rates could lead to slumping activity. And the housing markets hasn’t “quite settled down”. He would like to see how the markets stabilize to know “where we stand”. That’s a sign taken then BoC could opt for a pause for a while.

            But Poloz also defended past rate hikes of BoC and some other central banks. He noted “we are at a stage in the cycle where it always looks like monetary policy is doing the wrong thing”. And, given the economy is “near its steady state, interest rates also should be near their steady state.” But Poloz emphasized that the actual level of the so called steady state, or neutral rate, is an “open question”. BoC estimates it to be 2.5-3.5%.

            Chinese VP Wang confidence the economy will achieve sustainable growth

              In the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland, Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan said “There will be a lot of uncertainties in 2019, but China’s economy will continue to achieve sustainable growth”.

              He added that “Speed does matter. But what really matters is the quality and efficiency of our economic development.”

              Wang also urged all countries to defend multilateralism and do whatever they can to ensure global imbalances do not worsen.

              EU Barnier: Opposing no-deal Brexit won’t stop no-deal Brexit

                EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier  said today that no-deal Brexit is now the default, and “Preparing for a no-deal scenario is more important now than ever, even though I still hope that we can avoid this scenario.”

                He also warned that “Opposing no-deal will not stop no-deal from happening at the end of March. To stop no-deal, another majority will have to emerge.” And he added, “This is the objective of the political consultations that Theresa May has started and we hope, sincerely, we hope that this process will be successful”.

                Meanwhile, he also pointed out there are two possible ways to leave the EU. “Number one, an orderly withdrawal based on the agreement that we have built step by step with the UK over the last 18 months.” Or, “Number two, a disorderly withdrawal, leaving the EU without a deal, is a default scenario and there appears to be a majority in the House of Commons to oppose a no-deal.”

                WH Hassett said there will be a US-China trade deal by March 1

                  White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said he’s confidence that US and China will reach a trade deal by March 1 deadline. He said in a CNN interview that “Yes, I am confident that it can happen, that the talks are moving forward”.

                  And, “There’s a lot of progress to be made but it’s a very strong situation right now. And I think the Chinese recognize that they’ve got a big potential gain for coming up with a deal because as you mentioned their growth has really fallen off the cliff.”

                  Also, Hassett talked down the risk of government shut down on credit rating. He said “I don’t think a downgrade is in play … I don’t think that there’s any risk at all, given how strong the economy is, that we will be downgraded.”

                  Into US session: Sterling extending rally, New Zealand Dollar firm

                    Entering into US session, Sterling is the second strongest one for today, just next to New Zealand Dollar. Markets are seeing UK cross-party politicians’ move to block no-deal Brexit as positive to the Pound. In particular, the campaign is gathering momentum today as key Labour member expressed they’re highly likely to join. Meanwhile, Kiwi is the strongest one as stronger than expected CPI lowers chance of a RBNZ rate cut.

                    On the other hand, Yen and Dollar are weakest for today so far. Risk sentiments turned cautious in Asia on renewed worries over US-China trade talk. But White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow was quick to come out yesterday to emphasize that the high-level meeting later this month between USTR Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He was “very, very important” and “determinative.” And, We are moving towards negotiations.” Risk sentiments in European session turned positive in Europe and US futures point to rebound.

                    In Europe, currently:

                    • FTSE is down -0.22% thanks to rally in Sterling.
                    • DAX is up slightly by 0.28%.
                    • CAC is up 0.46%.
                    • German 10-year yield is up 0.009 at 0.246.

                    Earlier in Asia:

                    • Nikkei closed down -0.14%.
                    • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.01%.
                    • China Shanghai SSE rose 0.05%.
                    • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.68%.
                    • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0034 to 0.004, turned positive.

                    UK Labour highly likely to back amendment to block no-deal Brexit

                      The campaign to block a no-deal Brexit in the parliament is gaining momentum today. Labour lawmaker Yvette Cooper put an cross-party supported amendment proposal earlier, to try to impose a deadline of February 26 for Prime Minister Theresa May to get the Brexit deal approved by the parliament. Otherwise, there would be a parliamentary vote on delaying Brexit. The second most influential Labour member John McDonnell said today the party is “highly likely” to back Cooper’s amendment. He added “Yvette Cooper has put an amendment down which I think is sensible”.

                      Regarding no-deal Brexit, Moody’s senior vice president Sarah Carlson warned that “from a sovereign credit perspective, if you end up with a ‘no deal’ Brexit that is a sign that something institutionally has really quite profoundly failed.” And, that would weigh negatively on UK’s creditworthiness.

                      EU Moscovici: Brexit has to be dealt with in London first

                        European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici reiterated the EU’s stance that regarding Brexit, the ball is in UK’s court now. He said “Certainly the EU is there, the EU is waiting, the EU is ready but first we need to know clearly what are the British intentions and we need some clarifications from London”.

                        He added that “Of course the door is always open for discussion but it’s not up to us to tell now the British side where it wants to go. The ball clearly is in the British side again. It’s not a problem that can be solved by Brussels, maybe in Brussels later, but it has to be first dealt with in London.”

                        Also on the possibility of hard Brexit, Moscovici said “Nobody wants a no-deal (Brexit), that is clear. The British parliament doesn’t want a no-deal, the British government doesn’t want a no-deal, and the EU is not willing a no-deal, so we need to explore all options which are not a no-deal.”

                        Asia update: Sentiments stabilized but lacks steam for rebound, Yen lower after BoJ

                          Sentiments in Asian markets stabilized today despite the selloff in US overnight. However, rebound in Asia is rather weak. Nikkei indeed closed down -0.14% while other major indices fluctuate between gains and losses.

                          In the currency markets, New Zealand leads the way higher, additionally boosted by solid CPI data. Australian and Canadian are the next strongest. Yen is back under pressure after BoJ revised fiscal 2019 inflation forecasts steeply. Swiss Franc follow as the second weakest.

                          In Asia:

                          • Nikkei closed down -0.14% at 20593.72.
                          • Hong Kong HSI is up 0.02%.
                          • China SSE is up 0.01%.
                          • Singapore Strait Times is down -0.48%.
                          • Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0016 at 0.003, turned positive.

                          Overnight in the US:

                          • DOW dropped -1.22%.
                          • S&P 500 dropped -1.42%.
                          • NASDAQ dropped -1.91%.
                          • 10-year yield dropped -0.054 to 2.730.

                          NZD jumps on solid CPI, AUD/NZD complete post flash crash rebound

                            New Zealand Dollar is lifted notable today but better than expected consumer inflation data. CPI rose 0.1% qoq in Q4 versus expectation of 0.0% qoq. On annual basis, CPI was unchanged at 1.9% yoy, above expectation of 1.8% yoy. The data eased worries that inflation outlook is worsening and chance for a rate cut by RBNZ is reduced. Majority of economists are still expecting the next move to be a hike. But for now, there is no time frame for that move yet.

                            Meanwhile, the outlook is still clouded by fading momentum in the economy, as show in recent forward-looking indicators. There is question on whether domestic inflation could sustain. And should data ahead disappoint, there bets on rate cut will re-emerge.

                            Full release here.

                            AUD/NZD’s fall from 1.0670 accelerates today. Break of 1.0536 minor support now suggests that the rebound from 1.0107 flash crash low has completed at 1.0670 already. Further decline is now in favor back to retest 1.0107.

                            BoJ stands pat, sharp downward revision in fiscal 2019 inflation forecast

                              BoJ left monetary policies unchanged today as widely expected. New economic projections are also released with upgrade in fiscal 2019 and 2020 GDP forecasts. But inflation forecasts was lowered rather sharply for fiscal 2019.

                              The short term interest rate is held unchanged at -0.1%. And under the yield curve control frame work, BoJ will continue to kept 10-year JGB yield at around 0%, with some upward and downward movements allowed. The annual amount of JGB purchase will be kept at JPY 80T.

                              Member G. Katakoa dissented as usual, pushing to strengthen monetary easing. Y Harada also dissented again, criticizing that allowing the long-term yields to move upward and downward to some extent was too ambiguous

                              On economy, BoJ maintained that “Japan’s economy is likely to continue on an expanding trend through fiscal 2020.” Also, “overseas economies are expected to continue growing firmly on the whole, although various developments of late warrant attention such as the trade friction between the United States and China.”

                              In the new GDP projections, comparing with October forecasts:

                              • Fiscal 2018 is revised to 0.9% to 1.0% (median 0.9%), down from 1.3% to 1.5% (median 1.4%).
                              • Fiscal 2019 is revised to 0.7% to 1.0% (median 0.9%), up from 0.8% to 0.9% (median 0.8%).
                              • Fiscal 2020 is revised to 0.7% to 1.0% (median 1.0%), up from 0.6% to 0.9% (median 0.8%).

                              The revisions showed that while BoJ is optimistic for 2019, it also sees larger uncertainties.

                              In new core CPI projections, comparing with October forecasts, and exclude effect of sales tax hike:

                              • Fiscal 2018 is revised to 0.8% to 0.9% (median 0.8%), down from 0.9% to 1.0% (median 0.9%).
                              • Fiscal 2019 is revised to 0.8% to 1.1% (median 0.9%), down sharply from 1.3 to 1.5% (median 1.4%).
                              • Fiscal 2020 is revised to 1.2% to 1.4% (median 1.4%) down from 1.4% to 1.6% (median 1.5%).

                              The downside revision in fiscal 2019 core CPI is rather steep.

                              US Senate to hold competing votes to end government shutdown

                                The US Senate will hold two competing votes on Thursday as effort to end the record government shut down. Trump’s plan, which includes USD 5.7B for border wall will be voted on. Also, Democrat’s proposal, to reopen government through February 8, will also be voted on. It’s seen as a concession by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who previously refused to vote on a bill that Trump would veto.

                                Trump includes a provisional three-year work permits for the youngsters under Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program as bargaining chip. But his plan is still likely to be voted down as Democrats have open rejected to compromise on the issue.

                                The Democrats could gain enough support from Senate Republicans rebels to vote for their proposal, which was already pass in the House. However, even so, Trump will likely veto even if the Democrat’s bill is passed in the Senate. The Democrats are way short of two-third majority to override Trump’s veto.

                                So, the shutdown might still extend beyond Thursday.

                                WH Kudlow denies cancelling meeting with China, reiterates importance of enforcing promises

                                  There were rumors that Trump’s administration declined, or cancelled, a second deputy-level meeting with China on trade. The meeting was intended for preparation on the top level meeting between US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. There were various versions of the rumor. But the key message was that the US is not satisfied with the lack of concrete progress on intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer. China’s offer to buy more goods from the US is simply not enough.

                                  But White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow came out denying the rumor and said there was “no cancellation”. And he maintained the high-level meeting later this month between Lighthizer and Liu was “very, very important” and “determinative.” And, “There were no other intermediate meetings scheduled,” while “The story is unchanged. We are moving towards negotiations.”

                                  Yet, Kudlow also emphasized that “enforcement is absolutely crucial to the success of these talks.” “Promises are great but enforcement is what we want — things like deadlines and timetables and full coverage of the various structural issues,” he said. “Will this all be solved at the end of the month? I don’t know. I wouldn’t dare to predict.”

                                  EU: No-deal Brexit pretty obviously means a hard Irish border

                                    European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas warned today that a hard Irish border will inevitably be resulted from no-deal Brexit. He said in a press conference that “If you’d like … to push me and speculate on what might happen in a no-deal scenario in Ireland, I think it’s pretty obvious — you will have a hard border.” But he also reiterated EU’s commitment to the Good Friday Agreement and pledged to ” take inevitably into account this fact”.

                                    Irish government spokesman said “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one.” Though, he added “Working out suitable customs and trade arrangements compatible with our EU membership will require detailed discussion with the Commission, while the UK will also need to live up to its responsibilities. We are under no illusions about how challenging that would be.”

                                    SNB Maechler: Exchange rate is important to Swiss monetary conditions and prices

                                      SNB Governing Board member Andrea Maechler said the central bank is maintaining negative interest rates. And it’s ready to intervene in the forex markets.

                                      She clarified that “our mandate is not to defend the Swiss franc, but price stability.” However, she added that”we are a small, open country, which means the exchange rate is important for our monetary conditions and is linked to prices.”

                                      Also, “we have seen that if the franc is too strong, inflation goes negative”.

                                      Into US session: AUD weakest, Yen strongest. China SSE drags global sentiments

                                        Entering into US session, Australian Dollar is trading as the weakest one today, followed by Canadian and then Euro. Yen is the strongest one, followed by Dollar an Sterling. Risk aversion seems to be back as led by Asian markets, in particular China and Hong Kong. DOW future is currently down -140 pts but we’ll have to see if US stocks could regain strength.

                                        Sterling is boosted by strong employment data, which saw acceleration in wage growth. Unemployment rate also dropped to lowest since 1975. But there is apparently no progress in Brexit negotiation, which is the ultimate driver in Sterling’s trend. Euro got little support from mixed German ZEW economic sentiment, which saw improvement in the sentiment index but sharp deterioration in current condition index.

                                        In Europe, currently:

                                        • FTSE is down -0.44%.
                                        • DAX is down -0.49%.
                                        • CAC is down -0.51%.
                                        • German 10-year yield is down -0.0137 at 0.242.

                                        Earlier in Asia:

                                        • Nikkei dropped -0.47%.
                                        • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.70%
                                        • China Shanghai SSE dropped -1.18%
                                        • Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.86%
                                        • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.006 to -0.001, turned negative.

                                        Today’s sharp fall in SSE is the first since of notable weakness since rebound started on Jan 4. 2557.71 is now a support level to defend and break will be an early sign of reversal, which could drag global sentiments lower.

                                        Polish suggestion of 5-year limit on Irish backstop is not EU position

                                          Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz suggested limiting the Irish backstop arrangement to five years, to help get the Brexit deal through UK parliament. However, European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said that is not EU’s position.

                                          Schinas told reports that “we have a unanimous, and I repeat unanimous, EU 27 position on the Withdrawal agreement and it’s clear that the doorstep statement you’re referring to was not part of the EU position.”