Thu, Dec 01, 2022 @ 12:24 GMT
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Volatility Compressed ahead of Holiday Week with an Eye on Middle East and Korea


US Session Highlights

  • (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 234K V 245KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.03M V 2.02ME
  • (US) MAR PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.4%E
  • (US) Pres Trump tweets: “I have great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea. If they are unable to do so, the U.S., with its allies, will!”
  • (US) APR PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 98 V 96.5E; Current conditions: 115.2 v 113.2 prior final reading (highest since 2000)
  • (US) Forces in Afghanistan struck ISIS tunnels with “the mother of all bombs”, largest conventional bomb ever used by the US military – press

US markets on close: Dow -0.7%, S&P500 -0.7%, Nasdaq -0.5%

  • Best Sector in S&P500: Real Estate
  • Worst Sector in S&P500: Energy
  • Biggest gainers: ALXN +3.3%; INCY +1.9%; COTY +1.7%
  • Biggest losers: SWN -5.0%; FTR -4.4%; CHK -4.2%
  • At the close: VIX 16.0 (+0.2pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.21% (flat), 10-yr 2.23% (-7bps), 30-yr 2.89% (-4bps)

US movers afterhours

  • STRP: Verizon said to consider topping AT&T bid – press; +9.4% afterhours
  • SABR: To enter S&P MidCap 400 index, effective ahead of the open on April 19; +4.6% afterhours

Politics

  • (FR) France IFOP daily presidential poll: Second round poll: Macron 58.5% (unchanged), Le Pen 41.5% (unchanged)

Key economic data

  • (KR) South Korea Mar Import Price Index M/M: -2.0% v -2.1% prior (revised from -2.2%); Y/Y: 6.9% v 9.2% prior (revised from 9.1%)
  • (CN) China Finance Ministry: Q1 Fiscal Rev rose 14.1% y/y at CNY4.44T – Chinese press

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

  • Asian equity markets are trending lower, tracking continued selling in US that took its indices to 2-month lows. Despite the fairly constructive start to the US earnings season with a beat by JP Morgan and a mixed report from Wells Fargo, investors focus remained on geopolitical jitters around South Korea and the Middle East. Selling momentum picked up at the end of the US session after reports that US forces in Afghanistan struck ISIS tunnels with “the mother of all bombs” – the largest conventional bomb ever used by the US military – raising concerns of an expanded US involvement in other parts of the Middle East.
  • In Asian trading hours, the focus is centered on North Korea as it approaches the key Apr 15th birthday of its founder Kim Il-sung. Overnight reports suggested that there’s been new activity at its nuclear test cite, and today NBC reported that US would consider a preemptive strike against North Korea with conventional weapons if it believes Pyongyang will proceed with a nuclear test. In response, North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister said Pyongyang will conduct a nuclear test when it sees fit, adding that its military will not sit idly in the event of a US strike.
  • Despite the ongoing saber-rattling, currency volatility is compressed going into Good Friday / Easter holidays. USD/JPY is not reacting to the news that would typically dictate safehaven flows, flat-lining just below 109.20. CME futures markets are also closed for holiday and not responding to developments.
  • Toshiba remained in the corporate headlines, falling nearly 6% on press reports that it stopped meetings regarding sale of its chip unit due to contractual obligations to Western Digital, but pared half of that decline after reports of Apple interest in a joint bid for the division with Hon Hai.

China

  • (CN) China Finance Ministry: Q1 Fiscal Rev rose 14.1% y/y – Chinese press
  • (CN) Japan Coast Guard claims China Coast Guard vessels entered its waters – financial press

Japan

  • (JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Exec Dir Amamiya: BOJ easing is not for financing govt debt – press

Australia/New Zealand

  • (NZ) DairyNZ: Cyclone Cook may have an impact on the coming season’s dairy production – NZ press

Korea

  • (KR) North Korea Vice Foreign Min: Will conduct another nuclear test when HQ sees fit; Pres Trump is “making trouble” with aggressive tweets – press
  • (KR) South Korea Deputy Fin Min Song In-chang: Pres Trump’s remarks on China not being a currency manipulator reduce the risks of Korea being labeled one as well – press

Asian Equity Indices/Futures closed (23:000ET)

  • Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng closed, Shanghai Composite -0.6%, ASX200 closed, Kospi -0.6%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (23:00ET)

  • EUR 1.0605-1.0625; JPY 109.00-109.20; AUD 0.7555-0.7575; NZD 0.6975-0.7000
  • (US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 847 v 839 w/w (+1%) (13th straight weekly rise)
  • SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 6.5 tonnes to 848.9 tonnes; highest since Dec 14th
  • (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8740 V 6.8651 PRIOR
  • (CN) PBoC injects CNY90B combined in 7, 14, and 28-day reverse repos; Injects net CNY70B this week v drained CNY100B prior

Asia equities/Notables/movers

Japan

  • 6502.JP Toshiba -5.7% (speculation to stop chip unit sale)
  • 7974.JP Nintendo Co +3.4% (Switch becomes fast-selling video games system)
  • 9983.JP Fast Retailing Co +1.0% (Q2 result)

Taiwan

  • 2330.TW Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co -1.8% (Q1 result)

China

  • 002143.CN Sichuan Gaojin Food Co -10.0%
  • 000415.CN Bohai Leasing Co +5.3% (Xiongan new area momentum)
  • 000338.CN Weichai Power +1.6% (guidance)
  • 601898.CN China Coal Energy -1.3% (Mar result)
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