Market Movers ahead

  • In the US , we believe it is likely core inflation stayed unchanged at 2.2% in October. We expect retail sales to continue painting a robust picture of US consumers.
  • Growth data will be in focus in the euro area , where German ZEW and preliminary GDP for Q3 are due to be released.
  • Italy will return to the limelight, as Tuesday is the deadline for it to send a revised budget to the EU Commission.
  • Deal or no deal is still the question relating to Brexit negotiations. We believe we will have to wait for December for an agreement. Unemployment and wages will also draw attention in the UK.
  • In China , we are due to get key figures on money and credit as well as industrial production, retail sales and investment. We expect growth to weaken before it gets better from Q2 019. Japan is scheduled to release Q3 GDP data.
  • In Scandinavia , it is time for Norwegian GDP for Q3 and inflation in Sweden and Denmark.

Weekly wrap-up

  • The US midterm elections turned out as expected, with the Democrats winning the House while the Republicans strengthened their majority in the Senate. We expect this to have a limited effect on the economy and markets.
  • New forecasts from the EU Commission revealed a downward revision to Italian growth and upward revision to the budget deficit, adding to the current EU-Italy standoff.
  • Chinese exports were stronger than expected but it is likely this is due to front-loading of sales to the US ahead of a possible tariff increase on 1 January.
  • Risk appetite recovered, sending both equities and bond yields higher.

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