2018 showed a real GDP gain of 2.5%, a level not seen since 2010’s 3% and despite a slight decline in Q3. Still, the outlook for the coming months is less rosy. A downturn that started in the second half of 2018 is continuing. February’s economic barometer fell, the 5th consecutive drop that brings it to its April 2015 range, when EUR was almost at parity with CHF after the Swiss National Bank discontinued the minimum exchange rate of 1.20.
Negative impulses are emerging in manufacturing side. Other sectors are below average as order books and overall business deteriorates. The economy is expected to slow in coming months, hinting towards weaker corporate earnings for the first half of 2019, particularly in manufacturing and construction. Currently trading at 1.1342, EUR/CHF is expected to strengthen, heading along 1.1390.
