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Weekly Focus – How Will ECB Respond to Economic Weakness?

Mar 01 19, 16:05 GMT

Market movers ahead

Anyone looking for new liquidity measures from the ECB at its meeting on Thursday could well be disappointed, and it will be interesting to see how the bank’s economic projections reflect recent data weakness.
The US jobs report should show quite strong wage growth, but job growth seems to have reached its peak.
Maybe the weakest spot in the US economy is the housing market, so keep an eye on housing data.
Chinese exports were likely weak in February after quite a strong January.
Danmarks Nationalbank intervened to defend the DKK in December and January, and reserve data will show whether that continued in February.

Weekly wrap-up

President Trump has postponed increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, and signals from trade negotiations are mostly optimistic.
Key Brexit votes have been scheduled for mid-March, and the probability of a ‘decent Brexit’ has increased somewhat. A postponed deadline seems very likely.
The Fed is coming closer to announcing an end to balance sheet reduction, and is unhappy with low inflation expectations.
Oil prices dropped after a bearish tweet from Donald Trump.

Full report in PDF.

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