Market movers ahead
- We believe the UK and EU will manage to agree another Brexit extension before the new deadline next Friday but it is by no means certain this will happen.
- We are unlikely to get new signals from the ECB at the meeting on Wednesday – global indicators have improved but European indicators have not, broadly speaking.
- Look out for the FOMC minutes, which should provide more details behind the dovish shift in March.
- Export data are set to give some hard data on the strength of China’s rebound in March, while trade negotiations are nearing a conclusion.
- It is likely inflation in Sweden was again well below target in March and we believe Norwegian inflation may have slowed a bit.
Weekly wrap-up
- March PMIs gave clear signs of a recovery in China but not in Europe.
- The Chinese recovery is visible in commodity prices, stock markets and, to some extent, bond markets, supported by optimism about trade negotiations.
- The British government is now trying to reach a deal with Labour on Brexit, as the House of Commons continues to reject every version of Brexit imaginable.
- Swedish manufacturing remains surprisingly robust despite the slowdown in Germany but the overall picture of the economy is still one of below-trend growth.
