- Rates: Inflation expectations are drifting away
Market based inflation expectations (5y5y forward) slid another 5 bps, with the EMU gauge at an all-time low and the US one below 2% for the first time since 2016. Core bond trading could be somewhat subdued this week ahead a dovish expected FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
- Currencies: EUR/USD pushed back in lower in the 1.1350/1.11 trading range
EUR/USD declined both on solid US retail sales last Friday, but also on markets speculation of further ECB easing. EUR/USD traders will continue to monitor this balance this week with the Sintra ECB forum and the Fed policy decision potentially bringing more clarity on the relative policy stance between the ECB and the Fed
The Sunrise Headlines
- Friday’s intraday rebound in US stock markets snapped last minute, leaving the major indices in red. The Nasdaq underperformed (-0.52%). Asian markets are trading mixed with Hong Kong (+0.7%) outperforming.
- The Hong Kong government threw in the towel and suspended the controversial extradition bill. An estimated 2m protesters took the streets again on Sunday however, demanding the bill’s full withdrawal.
- Dominic Raab, a Conservative candidate, said Parliament could be suspended in order to stop the House of Commons delaying Brexit again if no deal has been struck in time (i.e. Oct. 31).
- Moody’s cut Turkey’s credit rating further into junk territory (B1 from Ba3), citing risks of a balance of payment crisis and a government default. The rating agency added a negative outlook. The Turkish lira slid to EUR/TRY 6.65.
- The US Chamber of Commerce calls on Trump to reverse tariffs imposed over the past years and urge the administration to reopen negotiations. According to the business group the levies can cost the US $1tn over the next 10 years.
- Saudi Arabia said OPEC+ will probably meet in the first week of July and added that the goal is to extend the production curbs and balance the market before 2020. It expects a pick up of demand in the second half this year.
- Today’s economic calendar contains the US Empire Manufacturing index (June). ECB president Draghi kicks off the three-day ECB forum in Sintra (Portugal). Belgium taps the bond market
Currencies: EUR/USD Pushed back in lower in the 1.1350/1.11 trading range
EUR/USD turning back south in 1.11/1.1350 range
The dollar rebounded further on Friday as solid US data (including better than expected April/May US retail sales), made investors realize that already quite some dovishness is discounted ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. The rise in US yields was modest, but the dollar regained substantial further ground. At the same time, investors were pondering the chances of further ECB easing if needed. EUR/USD made a further step south closed at 1.1208 (from 1.1276). USD/JPY finished at 108.56.
This morning, most Asian equity markets are trading mixed, with Hong Kong outperforming. The dollar shows no clear trend. EUR/USD regains a few ticks (1.1215/20 area). USD/JPY is holding strong (108.60 area). The yuan (USD/CNY 6.9240) is holding near lows against the dollar. The Aussie dollar still struggles not to fall below the 0.6865 support area.
Today the focus will be on the US data. The Empire manufacturing survey is expected to ease to 11 from 17.8 after a strong rebound last month. The NAHB housing index is expected to rise from 66 to 67. Today’s data probably won’t change the US eco picture in a profound way anymore ahead of the Fed meeting. This evening, ECB’s Draghi will give an introduction at the Sintra ECB forum. Geopolitics including the US-China trade dispute remain a wild card, but apparently there is a period of temporary calm as parties involved are considering strategy options in the run-up to the G20 meeting.
Friday’s EUR/USD correction marked the end of recent upside test, putting the pair back the 1.11/1.1350 ST range. Dollar bears first want clarity on how far the Fed has moved toward starting an easing cycle. At the same time, soft ECB talk continues to weigh on the euro, too. We assume order-driven technical trade in EUR/USD ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. EUR/USD is testing the 1.1200 intermediate support. A break below, might at least be as much a sign of deteriorating sentiment on the euro, more than outright USD strength. EUR/GBP hovered near the 0.89 level last Friday as investors awaited the next steps in the race for the leadership of the conservative party. At the TV-debate this weekend, contenders for the Conservative party leadership even discussed the option of limiting the room of manoeuvre of Parliament blocking a no-deal Brexit. The debate suggest that uncertainty will persist, even after a new PM is put in place. Of late, the decline of sterling slowed, but the rising chance of nodeal Brexit, probably prevents a sustained rebound short-term
EUR/USD pushed back lower in the 1.11/1.1350 range as markets ponder relative positioning between Fed and ECB