EU Car Registrations At Decade High For Oct Readings

Notes/Observations

• European car registrations have best October reading since 2009

Asia:

• RBA Nov Minutes had MPC agreed that ‘case’ could be made ‘for a rate cut in meeting but most appropriate approach would be to maintain the current stance and make another full assessment once more evidence of the effects of the earlier easing had become available.
• Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam said she wanted a peaceful end to a university standoff that has persisted since the weekend, with about 100 protesters still surrounded by police.
• BOJ Gov Kuroda stated in parliament that he never said BOJ could cut rates unlimitedly and that BOJ had unlimited ammunition to ease. Reiterated stance that would ease without hesitation if Japan risks losing momentum to hitting the inflation goal. No preconception on next policy move; possible to lower interest rates
• Japan Econ Min Nishimura: Auto tariff removal was a prerequisite for trade talks, excluding autos goes against trade talks process

Americas:

• President Trump: At my meeting with Jay Powell this morning, I protested fact that our Fed Rate is set too high relative to the interest rates of other competitor countries. In fact, our rates should be lower than all others (we are the U.S.). Too strong a Dollar hurting manufacturers & growth! – tweet
• Fed’s Rosengren (hawk, dissenter): Pretty close to the Fed’s inflation target; economy was in a good place
• Fed’s Mester (hawk, non-voter): economy was doing well, US economic growth was basically around trend
• Sen Majority Leader McConnell: Pres Trump was ready to sign stopgap spending bill to fund govt through Dec 20th

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.75% at 409.02, FTSE +1.10% at 7,388.37, DAX +1.22% at 13,370.36, CAC-40 +0.52% at 5,960.86, IBEX-35 +0.71% at 9,324.00, FTSE MIB +0.74% at 23,636.50, SMI +0.76% at 10,425.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.31%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices trade higher following mixed indices in Asia and slightly higher US futures. In M&A news, Deutsche Boerse slightly up on news that the company is reportedly also mulling bid for BME; the Spanish exchange has received a formal offer from Six Group yesterday and Euronext also confirmed to be interested in BME. Accor up after reporting the sale of 5.1% stake in AccorInvest to existing shareholder after market close yesterday. On the Swiss corporate earnings front, Julius Baer up following increase in AUM and announcement of share buyback program and Sonova underperforming despite top line beat and raised guidance. In the UK, Halma +12% following strong earnings results and raised dividend. AO World rallying 9% after an H1 trading update that saw the company report like for like revenues +3.2% y/y. Easyjet, Keller, Melrose, Spectris, Drax, ICP and HomeServe rising on trading/earnings updates. HomeServe also announced acquisition. Dialight tanking ~20% after profit warning following very weak trading in October. Equiniti also dives ~11% after adjusting FY EBITDA guidance towards the lower end of range. Polypipe, Big Yellow and Nostrum Oil also down on trading/earnings updates. In other news, Meggitt up on signing contract with a US government agency and Ted Baker naming new CFO. Notable earners today include Home Depot, Medtronic, Kohl’s and TJX.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: EasyJet [EZJ.UK] +4% (earnings), Ted Baker [TED.UK] +3% (new CFO), Big Yellow [BYG.UK] -3.5% (earnings)
• Materials: Polypipe [PLP.UK] -3% (trading update)
• Financials: Julius Baer [BAER.CH] +1.5% (AUM stats; buyback)
• Industrials: Keller [KLR.UK] +3% (trading update), Halma [HLMA.UK] +9% (earnings), Dialight [DIA.UK] -13% (trading update)

Speakers

• Greek PM Mitsotakis urged Germany to increase its infrastructure spending
• IMF Director Georgieva reiterated stance that those countries with monetary policy space should use it. Germany was providing some fiscal stimulus. Negative rates have helped economy at a gloomy time but prolonged negative rates could create risks
• Turkey President Erdogan: issues with US were minor complications; last week’s discussion with President Trump was fruitful. Turkey would not give up the S-400 aircraft
• China Foreign Ministry reiterated stance that will continue to back Hong Kong Chief Executive Lam
• China PBoC reiterated stance to continue its prudent monetary policy; step up counter-cyclical adjustment. Downward pressures on domestic economy continued to increase (in-line with recent quarterly bulletin).
• Japan reportedly considering issuing 50-year bonds to support super-long interest rates
• North Korea Foreign Ministry official: US proposed meeting with North Korea in Sweden in Dec

Currencies/Fixed Income

• FX markets were very quiet in session with no data catalysts or speakers to ignite price movement.
• EUR/USD steady at 1.1070 level while USD/JPY continued to have difficulties staying above the 109 level in recent weeks.

Economic Data

• (NO) Norway Q4 Consumer Confidence: 13.4 v 15.0 prior
• (CH) Swiss Oct Trade Balance (CHF): 3.5B v 4.0B prior; Real Exports M/M: -1.3% v +2.7% prior; Real Imports M/M: -2.4% v -1.3% prior; Swiss Watch Exports Y/Y: 1.5% v 10.3% prior
• (EU) EU27 Oct New Car Registrations: 8.7% v 14.5% prior (highest Oct level since 2009)
• (EU) Euro Zone Sept Current Account Balance: €28.2B v €28.5B prior
• (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Sales M/M: +0.2% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.6% v -2.2% prior
• (IT) Italy Sept Industrial Orders M/M: 1.0% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: +0.3% v -10.4% prior
• (IT) Italy Sept Current Account Balance: €4.1B v €6.0B prior
• (GR) Greece Sept Current Account: €0.9B v €1.9B prior
• (IL) Israel Nov 12-Month CPI Forecast: 1.1% v 1.2% prior
• (EU) Euro Zone Sept Construction Output M/M: % v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.2% prior

Fixed Income Issuance

• (ID) Indonesia sold IDR24.0T vs. 15.0T target in 3-month and 6-month Bills and 5-year, 10-year, 15-year, 20-year and 30-year bonds
• (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR4.53B vs. ZAR4.53B indicated in 2030, 2035 and 2048 bonds
• (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €2.995B vs. €2.5-3.5B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month
• (SE) Sweden sold SEK750M in 1.0% June 2025 Inflation-Linked Bond; Avg Yield: -2.031% v -2.0625% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.65x

Looking Ahead

• 05:30 (UK) Weekly John Lewis LFL Sales data
• 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO)
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell in 3-month Bills
• 05:40 (UK) BOE allotment in 6-month GBP-enhanced liquidity repo operation (ILTR)
• 06:00 (UK) Nov CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -30e v -37 prior; Selling Prices: No est v -3 prior
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Oct PPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.8% prior
• 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov IGP-M Inflation (2nd Preview): 0.2%e v 0.9% prior
• 07:00 (RU) Russia announces upcoming OFZ Bond issuance
• 07:45 (US) Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales
• 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Base rate unchanged at 0.90%; Expected to leave Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at -0.05%
• 08:00 (RU) Russia Oct PPI M/M: +0.3%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -3.9%e v -1.2% prior
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:15 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Dep Gov Matsen
• 08:30 (US) Oct Housing Starts: 1.320Me v 1.256M prior; Building Permits: 1.380Me v 1.391M prior (revised from 1.387M)
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct Teranet House Price Index (HPI) M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.7% prior; House Price Index (HPI): No est v 227.72 prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Manufacturing Sales M/M: No est v 0.8% prior
• 08:30 (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction Dairy Trade price index: No est v +3.7% prior
• 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data
• 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
• 09:00 (US) Fed’s Williams (moderate, voter)
• 09:00 (HU) : Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy post rate decision statement
• 12:20 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Wilkins in Montreal
• 16:00 (KR) South Korea Oct PPI Y/Y: No est v -0.7% prior
• 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
• 18:50 (JP) Japan Oct Trade Balance: +¥252.4Be v -¥124.8B prior (revised from -¥123.0B); Adj Trade Balance: +¥248.1Be v -¥97.2B prior; Exports Y/Y: -7.5%e v -5.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: -15.2%e v -1.5% prior
• 19:00 (AU) Australia Oct Skilled Vacancies M/M: No est v -0.7% prior
• 20:30 (KR) Korea Central Bank to sell KRW2.2T in 2-Year Bonds
• 21:00 (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT) Nov Minutes
• 22:00 (CN) China to sell 1-year and 10-year Bonds
• 22:00 (TH) Thailand to sell 2038 bonds
• 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 20-Year JGB Bonds
• 23:00 (MY) Malaysia Oct CPI Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.1% prior