Market movers ahead
- At Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to stay on hold, particularly in light of the recent upward revision of payrolls data.
- Lagarde’s first ECB meeting is not expected to bring policy changes, but the ECB is likely to launch formally its long awaited strategy review – though we may not get a deadline for its completion.
- German politics, and the survival of the Grand Coalition, is still in flux, and investors should not get too excited about a big German fiscal policy boost in the near term.
- The UK election is coming up on Thursday. If Boris Johnson gets a solid majority, he should be able to get his Brexit deal through Parliament before Christmas and the UK will leave the EU by 31 January.
- We may get a phase one deal in the US-China trade talks next week, as Trump is otherwise set to put a 15% tariff on another USD160bn of goods from China.
- In Scandinavia, we will be looking at inflation figures as well as Norges Bank’s Regional survey, which we expect to project more muted growth in H1 next year.
Weekly wrap-up
- Chinese PMIs were better than we expected, supporting our view that the worst is over and that China has begun a moderate acceleration supported by stimulus and declining trade war fears.
- In the US, ISM disappointed, still signalling US GDP growth momentum has slowed further in Q4.
- US President Trump has started targeting other countries on trade.
