Notes/Observations
- Quiet EU session; focus on plethora of Q3 GDP data later in the week and upcoming US Presidential election next Tuesday
- Various targeted response considered in France to address the rise in coronavirus infections
- Companies expected to report earnings during the NY morning include Caterpillar, Cummins, Corning, Harley Davidson, JetBlue, Kroger, Lab Corp, Eli Lilly, 3M, Merck, Pfizer, Polaris Industries, Raytheon, Steven Madden, Sherwin-Williams, S&P Global, Stanley Black & Decker
Asia:
- New Zealand Sept Trade Balance (NZD): -1.0B v -1.0Be
- South Korea Q3 Preliminary GDP has country exiting its technical recession )Q/Q: 1.9% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.9%e); Rebound aided by Exports which registered its fastest pace since 1986 at +15.6% q/q;
- China Sept Industrial Profits Y/Y: 10.1% v 19.1% prior
- RBA Dep Gov Debelle stated that sub 6% unemployment goal was reasonable; GDP likely expanded in Q3
Coronaviurs:
- Total global cases 43.5M (+1.2% d/d); total deaths: 1.16M (+0.5% d/d)
- France govt reportedly considering a wide range of possibilities this week for how to tighten COVID-19 restrictions
Europe:
- France govt said to consider a wide range of possibilities this week for how to tighten COVID-19 restrictions. Considering a full 3 week lockdown of 3 cities ( Paris/Lyon/Marseille) possibly from Friday (Oct 30th). Measures would include a 19.00 curfew/closing public transport/closing non-essential retail
Americas:
- Senate Majority Leader McConnell motioned for the Senate to adjourn and not resume until Nov. 9th. Move ending chances of a stimulus Bill before the Nov 3 election
- House majority Leader Pelosi stated that White House was rejecting Democrats COVID-19 testing plan
- Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to Supreme Court (as expected)
- US govt approved possible $2.37B military arms sale to Taiwan
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
- Indices [Stoxx600 -0.79% at 353.14, FTSE -0.54% at 5,760.85, DAX -0.76% at 12,085.10, CAC-40 -1.55% at 4,741.57, IBEX-35 -0.79% at 6,743.00, FTSE MIB -1.04% at 18,747.50, SMI -0.61% at 9,924.94, S&P 500 Futures +0.07%]
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open modestly in the green but later turned around to fall into negative as the session progressed; better peforming sectors include technology and financials; materials and consumer discretionary sectors among underperformers; reportedly France considering further lockdowns; earnings expected in upcoming US session include Caterpillar, Merck, 3M and Pfizer
Equities
- Energy: BP [BP.UK] +2.5% (earnings)
- Financials: HSBC [HBSA.UK] +7% (earnings), Santander [SAN.ES] +4% (earnings)
- Healthcare: Novartis [NOVN.CH] -1% (earnings)
- Industrials: Washtec [WSU.DE] -3% (earnings)
- Technology: CapGemini [CAP.FR] +7% (earnings)
Speakers:
- ECB Q3 Lending Survey: Credit standards tightened for both companies and households in quarter
- Spain Dep PM: looking to raise taxes on both large corporations and wealthy individuals
- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Gov Warjiyo stated that had room to cut benchmark rate
- China Foreign Ministry reiterated stance that US arms sales to Taiwan violated its “One China” policy and sovereignty
Currencies/Fixed Income
- Quiet session with focus turning to next Tuesday’s US presidential election. Dealers noting that the uncertainty could hinder any clear trend in direction. Polls showing Biden leading the race for president and suggested a possible sweep by Democrats in Congress. Dealers noted that such an outcome would likely be bearish for the greenback in the medium term.
- EUR/USD remained locked within tight ranges as partial curfews and other restrictions in Europe to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic was casting a dark cloud over region’s the near-term outlook. Pair steady at 1.1805 by mid-session
- GBP/USD steady and holding above the 1.30 handle.
Economic Data
- (FI) Finland Oct Consumer Confidence: -6.9 v -5.9 prior; Business Confidence: 15 v -20 prior
- (FR) France Sept PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.5% prior
- (ES) Spain Q3 Unemployment Rate: 16.3% v 16.0%e
- (TW) Taiwan Sept Leading Indicator: 27 v 26 prior
- (SE) Sweden Sept Trade Balance (SEK): +2.6B v -2.1B prior
- (SE) Sweden Sept Household Lending Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.3% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Trade Balance (HKD): -12.7B v -22.1Be; Exports Y/Y: 9.1% v 0.2%e; Imports Y/Y: +3.4% v -1.9%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.4% v 9.6%e
Fixed Income Issuance
- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR12.35T vs. IDR10.0T target in bills and bonds
Looking Ahead
- (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (IL) Israel Sept Leading ‘S’ Indicator M/M: No est v -0.1% prior
- (BR) Brazil Sept Total Federal Debt (BRL): No est v 4.412T prior
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €2.0-2.5B in Sept 2022 CTZ Bonds
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €250-750M in 0.65% May 2026 inflation-linked bonds (BTPei)
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £3.25B in 0.125% Jan 2024 Gilts
- 06:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills
- 06:30 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell €625.0M in 26-week bills
- 06:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO)
- 06:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR6.6B in 2026, 2030 and 2048 bonds
- 07:00 (UK) Oct CBI Retailing Reported Sales: -1e v +11 prior; Total Distribution: No est v -7 prior
- 07:00 (FR) France Q3 Total Jobseekers: No est v 4.149M prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Oct FGV Construction Costs M/M: 1.6%e v 1.2% prior
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell €700M in local euro bonds
- 07:30 (UK) DMO to sell £1.0B in 1.625% 2071 Gilts
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing – 07:45 (US) Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Trade Balance: $3.6Be v $6.1B prior
- 08:30 (US) Sept Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Durables (ex-transportation): 0.3%e v 0.6% prior; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.5%e v 1.9% prior; Capital Goods Shipments (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.4%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data
- 09:00 (US) Aug FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 1.0% prior
- 09:00 (US) Aug S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index (20-city) M/M: 0.50%e v 0.55% prior; Y/Y: 4.20e v 3.95% prior; HPI Index: No est v 226.55 prior
- 09:00 (US) Aug S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index (overall) Y/Y: No est v 4.78% prior; HPI NSA Index: No est v 221.64 prior
- 09:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed)
- 10:00 (US) Oct Consumer Confidence: 102.0e v 101.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 18e v 21prior
- 10:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserve data
- (UK) BOE to buy £1.47B in APF Gilt purchase operation (7-20 years)
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 2-Year Notes
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Oct Consumer Confidence: No est v 79.4 prior
- 20:01 (UK) Oct BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: No est v -1.6% prior
- 20:30 (AU) Australia Q3 CPI Q/Q: 1.5%e v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: +0.6%e v -0.3% prior
- 23:00 (CN) China to sell 1-year and 10-year Upsized Government Bond
- 23:30 (TH) Thailand Sept ISIC Manufacturing Production Index Y/Y: -5.5%e v -9.3% prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 60.7% prior
