After a hot inflation report, the focus shifts to how policymakers will change their tune on how aggressive the Fed should now be. On Tuesday, we will hear from the Fed’s Bostic and Kashkari. Wednesday contains the release of the Beige Book and an appearance by Kashkari again, as well as speeches from Evans and Bullard. On Thursday, we will hear from Jefferson, Cook, and Bowman, while Friday brings an appearance from Williams.
Wall Street will pay close attention to the latest round of Fed regional surveys. Both the Empire Manufacturing Survey and Philly Fed business outlook are expected to remain in contraction territory and possibly signal some easing of price pressures, but that might be limited as energy costs have rebounded. Another round of housing data should show the market is cooling as mortgage rates surge to the highest level in 20 years.
Earnings season heats up as we hear from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and Tesla. After this round of results, we will have a good handle on how healthy the consumer is and if we are starting to see further signs inflation is easing.
Christine Lagarde will speak at the IMF/World Bank event over the weekend which could shed some light on what we can expect on 27 October. Markets are pricing in a high chance of a 75 basis point rate hike which suggests the possibility of Lagarde saying anything groundbreaking is slim. Final inflation data next week could change things but it’s probably not going to as revisions are not common and when they do come, they’re typically very marginal.
There’s an abundance of drama in the UK right now and unsurprisingly the markets are not embracing it. In sacking Kwasi Kwarteng and replacing him with Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor, Prime Minister Liz Truss may have been hoping to regain some faith in the markets and take the heat off herself but neither of those has happened. The vultures are circling and Truss faces the near-impossible task of restoring confidence and trust in her leadership.
There are also some pretty significant economic data releases next week including inflation on Wednesday which is expected to confirm annual price rises are back into double digits. Retail sales will also be released on Friday.
Andrew Bailey is in attendance at the IMF/World Bank meeting and is due to speak on Saturday.
No major economic or monetary events next week so the focus will remain on the war in Ukraine. PPI data on Wednesday may be of some interest.
Inflation and retail sales data on Wednesday will be of interest, with the central bank previously hiking by 75 basis points and some policymakers even favouring 100. The tightening cycle is clearly not over yet; the question is how aggressive they still need to be.
A new “disinformation” law adds a bit of extra spice to writing about Turkey’s economic situation and the unconventional approach of the central bank. With inflation running above 80% – as per official data – the central bank is expected to cut rates by another 100 basis points next week to 11%, as it continues to refuse to accept responsibility for soaring prices. The currency continues to trade near record lows amid these policy moves, with inflation expected to remain extraordinarily high barring a sudden and unlikely change of heart on interest rates.
No economic data of note next week but markets are very focused on the next monetary policy meeting on 15 December, with 50 basis points almost fully priced in. The question is whether they’ll wait that long. Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks in Washington on Tuesday.
The focus will shift to the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which starts this weekend. The conference is held every five years and is the most important forward-looking guidance of the Chinese government on economic development, COVID strategies, tech ambitions, and people’s livelihood planning.
The PBOC is also expected to keep its one-year medium-term lending facility rate steady at 2.75%.
It will be a busy week with Chinese activity data. Production data is expected to steady, investments to improve, and retail sales to be sluggish.
No major economic releases or speeches are expected.
Australia & New Zealand
Australia’s September labour report should show employment trends are moderating. Expectations are for 20,000 jobs to be created, lower than the prior month’s 35,000 gain.
In New Zealand, the focus will be on third-quarter inflation data that is expected to ease to 6.5%, as gasoline prices declined. Inflation trends are somewhat mixed as coal and gas prices posted increases. Price pressures are still high and the RBNZ is expected to remain aggressive with rate increases at the November 23rd policy meeting.
Japan may need to intervene in the FX market again as the yen depreciation continues. Core inflation data is expected to rise, but is unlikely to change the BOJ’s easing stance.
Markets will continue to digest the MAS tightening and recentering of the currency band. It will be mostly a quiet week, with the exception of one economic release, domestic export data, which is expected to improve.
Saturday, Oct. 15
- The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank continue
- Fed’s Bullard and ECB Chief Economist Lane discuss inflation on a panel hosted by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington
- BOE Governor Bailey gives opening remarks at the Group of 30’s international banking seminar in Washington
Sunday, Oct. 16
- China’s Communist Party kicks off its twice-a-decade Congress in Beijing
- World Health Summit begins with appearances by German Chancellor Scholz and French President Macron
Monday, Oct. 17
- US empire manufacturing
- China medium-term lending
- Italy CPI
- Japan tertiary index, industrial production, capacity utilization
- New Zealand performance services index
- Singapore trade
- Turkey budget balance
- UK Rightmove house prices
- ECB’s de Guindos gives a speech on the 20th anniversary of the euro, organized by the Consejo General de Economistas in Madrid
- ECB’s Chief Economist Lane participates in a discussion, “For a New European Fiscal Framework,” organized by Bocconi University and Deutsche Bank in Milan
- EU foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg
Tuesday, Oct. 18
- US industrial production, NAHB housing market index, cross-border investment
- Minutes of RBA policy meeting
- Canada housing starts
- China Q3 GDP, retail sales, industrial production, surveyed jobless
- Eurozone new car registrations
- Germany ZEW survey expectations
- Italy trade
- Mexico international reserves
- New Zealand CPI
- Philippines BoP
- South Korea money supply
- Spain trade balance
- Thailand car sales
- Turkey house prices
- RBA Deputy Governor Bullock speaks at the Australian Finance Industry Association annual conference in Sydney
- Fed’s Kashkari discusses the economy at a Women Corporate Directors Minnesota Chapter event
- Earnings Reports from Goldman Sachs and Netflix
Wednesday, Oct. 19
- US MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, Fed Beige Book
- Australia leading index
- Canada CPI
- China new home prices
- Colombia trade
- Eurozone CPI
- Russia weekly CPI/monthly PPI
- South Africa CPI, retail sales
- UK CPI, PPI, RPI, retail price index, house price index
- EIA crude oil inventory report
- Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee delivers his first policy address
- BOJ’s Adachi speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Toyama
- Fed’s Kashkari takes part in a moderated Q&A hosted by Travelers
- Fed’s Evans discusses the economic outlook during an event hosted by the Jefferson Scholars Foundation in Charlottesville, Virginia
- Fed’s Bullard gives welcome remarks at the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture hosted by his bank
Thursday, Oct. 20
- US existing home sales, initial jobless claims, Conference Board leading index
- Australia unemployment, business confidence
- China loan prime rates, Swift global payments
- Germany PPI
- Hong Kong jobless rate
- Japan trade
- Russia FX/gold reserves
- Taiwan export orders
- Turkey rate decision: Expected to cut one-week repo rate by 100bps to 11.00%
- UK GfK consumer confidence
- European Union leaders summit in Brussels through Friday
- Norges Bank Governor Wolden Bache speaks at the Centre for Monetary Economics, BI Norwegian Business School
Friday, Oct. 21
- Japan CPI
- Canada retail sales
- Euro area consumer confidence
- Italy Bank of Italy quarterly economic bulletin
- New Zealand trade, credit card spending
- Thailand foreign reserves, forward contracts
- Turkey consumer confidence
- UK retail sales
Sovereign Rating Updates
- Czech Republic (Fitch)
- Germany (Fitch)
- Greece (S&P)
- Italy (S&P)
- Netherlands (S&P)
- United Kingdom (S&P)
- United Kingdom (Moody’s)