The US has a very busy week ahead. The two main events are Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress and the nonfarm payroll report. Powell’s two days at Capitol Hill will undoubtedly draw scrutiny from lawmakers as more tightening will raise the risk this economy is recession bound. Traders will look to see how hawkish Powell will remain given the mostly strong data, recently.
The nonfarm payroll report is the main economic release of the week. After a jaw-dropping 517,000 jobs were created in January, traders will look to see if that number gets a serious downward revision and if February’s job growth slows to 200,000. Wage pressures are also key and if average hourly earnings come in hotter-than-expected that could fuel more Fed rate hiking bets.
President Biden is also expected to release his budget for fiscal 2024, which might include higher taxes. Republicans are calling for sharp spending cuts, but that is not expected to be in this version. Raising the US debt limit will start to become a focal point, but this is still the early stages.
Earnings season is coming to an end with key updates from Adidas, Brown-Forman, CrowdStrike, Daimler Truck, Deutsche Post, and JD.com.
Christine Lagarde’s appearance in the middle of next week will be highly anticipated following the February inflation data. The ECB President has insisted repeatedly that the central bank has a lot more to do, and the latest figures – especially the core which unexpectedly spiked to a new high – will reinforce that. That aside, there’ll be some interesting data points but nothing tier-one.
Not the busiest week coming, with GDP data on Friday probably the only notable event on the calendar. The UK avoided a recession in the second half of last year and everyone will be looking for early signs of the economy performing better again at the start of 2023. That aside, any BoE appearances will naturally get a lot of attention.
The February CPI number is the big release next week, with pressures continuing to abate with an expected reading of 10.8%, down from 11% the week before.
That aside, the focus remains on the war in Ukraine and any sanctions that will follow. Oil output has already been hit, with another 500,000 barrel daily drop this month and some are expecting that to double by the end of the year.
Fourth-quarter GDP data is the only highlight this coming week and it’s expected to show a contraction in the fourth quarter of last year, meaning the country is at risk of being in recession if it hasn’t bounced back since January.
Labor market figures are eyed alongside industrial production on Friday. That aside it’s looking fairly quiet.
SNB Chair Thomas Jordan’s appearance on Tuesday is probably the most notable event next week, coming a day after the latest inflation release. The CPI figure is expected to show price pressures easing but probably not enough to put the central bank at ease. Markets are still fully pricing in a 50 basis point hike on 23 March.
All eyes will be on the National People’s Congress (NPC), as it kicks off its annual session. This will set the tone in Asia as China will announce major personnel changes, government policy goals, and growth targets.
It will also be a busy week filled with economic releases. Some of the data however will be impacted by the Lunar New Year holiday. The February trade balance is expected to decline, while both CPI and PPI soften. China’s credit last month was most likely reined in as aggregate financing and new yuan loans declined.
It is likely to be a relatively quiet week for India, with the exception of January Industrial production, which is expected to improve from 4.3% to 5.6%.
Australia & New Zealand
The RBA is expected to deliver another quarter-point rate rise and maintain a hawkish stance as inflation remains elevated. Analysts are unanimous in expecting rates to rise by 25bps to 3.60%.
In New Zealand, it will be a week filled with a few economic releases. The ANZ commodity price reading occurs on Monday. In the middle of the week, we get a look at February card spending. Friday includes the manufacturing PMI release.
The end of Kuroda’s tenure is here. In his last meeting, the BOJ is expected to stay the course and have no changes with YCC or with rates. Governor Kuroda is widely expected to stick to his stance of maintaining monetary easing to aim for sustainable, stable 2% inflation. BOJ Governor nominee Kazuo Ueda has already hinted he will stay the course, but currency traders are eagerly awaiting any signs on how the BOJ will exit this ultra-easy policy.
No major releases are expected.
Saturday, March 4
- Fed’s Daly gives a speech on inflation at Princeton University
Sunday, March 5
- China’s National People’s Congress begins in Beijing
Monday, March 6
- US factory orders, durable goods
- Australia inflation gauge
- Euro area retail sales
- Mexico vehicle production/exports
- New Zealand commodity prices
- SNB releases 2022 results
- CERAWeek energy conference by S&P Global
- JPMorgan’s Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference
- International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors meeting
Tuesday, March 7
- Fed’s Powell presents his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee
- US wholesale inventories, consumer credit
- Australia trade balance, reserves
- China trade balance, reserves
- Germany factory orders
- Greece GDP
- Japan cash earnings
- Mexico consumer confidence, international reserves
- South Africa GDP
- Singapore reserves
- Spain industrial production
- Thailand CPI
- RBA decision: Expected to raise cash rate target 25bps to 3.60%
- ECB consumer expectations survey
- Poland Monetary Policy Council rate meeting
- Riksbank Governor Thedeen speaks on the current economic situation
- House Ways and Means Committee has a field hearing on the state of the US economy
Wednesday, March 8
- Fed’s Powell presents his semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House Financial Services Committee
- US MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change, trade balance, JOLTS job openings
- Canada merchandise trade
- Euro area GDP
- Germany industrial production
- Indonesia consumer confidence
- Japan BoP, bank lending, leading index
- BOC rate decision: Expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.50%
- Poland rate decision: Expected to leave rates unchanged at 6.75%
- EIA crude oil inventories
- RBA Governor Lowe speaks at the AFR Business Summit in Sydney
- ECB President Lagarde speaks alongside WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala at an International Women’s Day event
- Riksbank’s Breman speaks on the economy
- BOE’s Dhingra speaks at the Resolution Foundation
- BOE’s Tenreyro speaks at Conference of British Industry event
Thursday, March 9
- US Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, household change in net worth
- China CPI, PPI, aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
- Japan GDP, money stock, machine tool orders
- Mexico CPI
- New Zealand heavy traffic index, card spending
- South Africa current account balance
- President Biden to release his US budget proposal for fiscal 2024
- Riksbank’s Bunge speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook
- Riksbank’s Jansson speaks on central bank digital currencies
- BOE’s Breeden speaks on macro-prudential and monetary policy interactions
Friday, March 10
- US Feb change in nonfarm payrolls: 215Ke v 517K prior, unemployment rate, average hourly wages, monthly budget statement
- Bank of Japan policy rate decision: No changes expected to YCC or balance rate in Kuroda’s last meeting
- Canada unemployment
- France trade balance
- Germany CPI
- India industrial production
- Japan household spending, PPI
- Mexico nominal wages
- New Zealand PMI, house sales
- Russia CPI
- Thailand consumer confidence, foreign reserves, forward contracts
- Turkey industrial production
- UK industrial production, services index, trade balance
- Apple annual meeting of shareholders
Sovereign Rating Updates
- Belgium (Fitch)
- Norway (S&P)
- Portugal (S&P)
- Greece (DBRS)