The Fed is expected to resume raising rates at the July 26th FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures see a 96% chance that the central bank will deliver a quarter-point rate rise, bringin the target range to between 5.25% and 5.50%, almost a 22-year high. The Fed delivered 10 straight rate increases and then paused at the June FOMC meeting. The Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday and seems poised to be noncommittal with what they will do in September. The economic data has been mixed (strong labor data/cooling pricing pressures) and that should support Powell’s case that they still could deliver a soft landing, a slowdown that avoids a recession. This seems like it will be the last rate hike in the Fed’s tightening cycle, but we will have two more inflation reports before the Fed will need to commit that more rate hikes are no longer necessary.
The Fed will steal the spotlight but there are several other important economic indicators and earnings that could move markets. Monday’s flash PMI report should show both the manufacturing and service sectors continue to soften, with services still remaining in expansion territory. Tuesday’s Conference Board’s consumer confidence report could fuel expectations of a soft landing. Thursday’s first look at Q2 GDP is expected to show growth cooled from 2.0% to 1.8% (0.9%-2.1% consensus range) as consumer spending moderated. Friday contains the release of personal income and spending data alongside the Fed’s preferred inflation and wage gauges. The Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to dip from 1.2% to 1.1%. The personal consumption expenditures price index is expected to cool both on a monthly and annual basis (M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior;Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.6% prior).
Earnings will be massive this week as we get updates from 3M, AbbVie, Alphabet, Airbus, AstraZeneca, AT&T, Barclays, BASF, Biogen, BNP Paribas, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chevron, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Comcast, Exxon, Ford Motor, General Electric, General Motors, GSK, Hermes International, Honeywell International, Intel, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nestle, PG&E, Procter & Gamble, Raytheon Technologies, Samsung Electronics, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, Thermo Fisher Scientific, UniCredit, Unilever, Union Pacific, Verizon Communications, Visa, and Volkswagen
A 25 basis point rate hike from the ECB is almost entirely priced in ahead of the meeting on Thursday but what comes after is up for much more debate. Recent commentary from policymakers suggests a pause may very much be on the cards in September, on the back of some progress in the inflation data recently. The ECB has taken a hawkish stance after meetings until now but next week could see President Lagarde and her colleagues tweak the communication and leave the door open to a pause at the following meeting.
The following day we’ll get some flash inflation data from member states including Germany, France and Spain while the week will start with flash PMIs from Germany, France and the eurozone.
Finally, Spain goes to the polls this weekend in a highly unusual late summer snap election in which a party from the far left or right will probably be kingmaker. It promises to be an eventful week.
A very quiet week for the UK following one in which inflation was shown to be finally falling and interest rate expectations have been pared back. The focus this week will be on the PMI surveys and whether we can get any further signs of disinflationary pressures building and the economy cooling.
No major economic releases or events next week. Industrial output and central bank reserves are the only items on the agenda.
The SARB paused its tightening cycle in July while stressing it is not the end – although it likely is as both headline and core inflation are now comfortably within its 3-6% target range – and that future decisions will be driven by the data. With that in mind, next week is looking a little quiet with the leading indicator on Tuesday and PPI figures on Thursday.
Next week offers mostly tier three data, with the only release of note being the quarterly inflation report. Against the backdrop of a plunging currency and a central bank that finally accepts it needs to raise rates but refuses to do so at the pace required, it should make for interesting reading. Though it likely won’t do anything to restore trust and confidence in policymakers to fix the problems.
Next week consists of just a couple of surveys, the KOF indicator and investor sentiment.
No key economic data but keep a lookout for a possible announcement of more detailed fiscal stimulus measures in terms of monetary amount, and scope of coverage. Last week, China’s top policymakers announced a slew of broad-based plans to boost consumer spending and support for private companies in share listings, bond sales, and overseas expansion but lacking in detail.
No major key data releases.
Several pieces of data to digest. Firstly, flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for July out on Monday. Forecasts are expecting a further deterioration for both; a decline in Manufacturing PMI to 47.6 from 48.2 in June, and Services PMI slip to contraction mode at 49.2 from June’s reading of 50.3.
Secondly, the all-important Q2 inflation data out on Wednesday where the consensus is expecting a slow down to 6.2% year-on-year from 7% y/y printed in Q1. Even the expectation for the less volatile RBA-trimmed median CPI released on the same day is being lowered to 6% y/y for Q2 from 6.6% y/y in Q1. These latest inflationary data will play a significant contribution in shaping the expectations of the monetary policy decision outlook for the next RBA meeting on 1 August. Based on the RBA Rate Indicator as of 21st July, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for the August 2023 contract have priced in a 48% probability of a 25-bps hike to bring the cash rate to 4.35%, that’s an increase in odds from 29% seen in a week ago.
Lastly, retail sales for June out on Friday where the forecast is expected a decline to -0.3% month-on-month from 0.7% m/m in May.
One key data to note will be the Balance of Trade for June out on Monday where May’s trade surplus is being forecasted to reverse to a deficit of -NZ$1 billion from NZ$ 46 million.
On Monday, we will have the flash Manufacturing and Services PMI for July. The growth in the manufacturing sector is expected to improve slightly to 50 from 49.8 in June while growth in the services sector is forecasted to slip slightly to 53.4 from 54.0 in June.
Next up, on Friday, the leading Tokyo CPI data for July will be released. Consensus for the core Tokyo inflation (excluding fresh food) is expected to slip to 2.9% year-on-year from 3.2% y/y in June, and Core-Core Tokyo inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) is forecasted to dip slightly to 2.2% y/y from 2.3% y/y in June.
Also, BoJ’s monetary policy decision and latest economic quarterly outlook will be out on Friday as well. The consensus is an upgrade of the FY 2023 inflation outlook to be above 2% and a Reuters report out on Friday, 21 July stated that it is likely no change to the current band limits of the “Yield Curve Control” (YCC) programme on the 10-year JGB yield based on five sources familiar with the BoJ’s thinking. Prior to this Reuters news flow, there is a certain degree of speculation in the market place the BoJ may increase the upper limit of the YCC to 0.75% from 0.50%.
Two key data to watch out for. Firstly, inflation for June is out on Monday. Consensus is expecting core inflation to cool down to 4.2% year-on-year from 4.7% y/y in May. If it turns out as expected, it will be the second consecutive month of a slowdown in inflationary pressure.
Next up, industrial production for June out on Wednesday, another month of negative growth is expected at -7.5% year-on-year but at a slower magnitude than -10.8% y/y recorded in May.
The oil market looks like it is going to continue to tighten as OPEC+ delivers on their pledges and as China improves business conditions. Energy traders will have a lot to stay on top of this week. In addition to the global flash PMI readings, a handful of major energy companies earnings, and the standard weekly stockpile data points, there will be a few energy conferences which could provide some insight for the future shifts with supply and demand.
Key earnings from Shell, TotalEnergies, Exxon and Chevron will provide key insights on capex spending and expectations for future drilling. The G20 Energy Transitions Ministerial meeting will focus on clean initiatives. The 5th International Conference on Power and Energy Technology will provide insights on Chinese crude demand outlooks.
Gold’s is poised for a third straight weekly advance as Wall Street anticipates the Fed could be done with their rate hiking cycle after next week. A strong labor market however keeps the risk for more tightening to occur in the fall, so gold isn’t quite ready to make a move back above the $2000 level. The FOMC decision will be key for gold and could trigger a corrective move below the $1,960 level if the Fed decides to keep optionality on the table for September. If Powell is able to signal that it seems they are done tightening, gold may attempt to capture the $1980 level, with $2,000 being a major psychological barrier.
Bitcoin remains anchored around the $30,000 level as no major developments have so far occurred with government action or regulation. The past week saw the SEC acknowledge ETF filings from BlackRock, Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust, VanEck Bitcoin Trust and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF.
The cryptoverse is still celebrating a partial victory after a federal judge said Ripple’s XRP token wasn’t a security when sold to retail investors on exchanges. The ruling is potentially paving the way for the House Republicans’ bill for a US crypto market overhaul. The Bitcoin consolidation seems like it isn’t going away just yet but it could if the House’s bill advances or if the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise.
Saturday, July 22
- G20 Energy Transitions Ministerial meeting in India.
Sunday, July 23
- Spanish national election
- Italian PM Meloni hosts Euro-African conference on migration in Rome.
Monday, July 24
- US Flash PMIs
- European Flash PMIs: Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK
- Japan Manufacturing PMI
- New Zealand trade
- Singapore CPI
- Taiwan jobless rate, industrial production
- Taiwan holds annual Han Kuang military drills
Tuesday, July 25
- US July Conf. Board consumer confidence: 112.0e v 109.7 prior
- Germany IFO business climate
- Eurozone bank lending survey.
- Mexico international reserves
- Earnings results form Alphabet, 3M Company and Microsoft Corp
- EU agriculture ministers meet in Brussels.
Wednesday, July 26
- FOMC rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bps, bringing target range to 5.25-5.50%.
- US new home sales
- Australia CPI
- Russia industrial production
- Singapore industrial production
- Bank of Canada releases summary of deliberations.
- Australian PM Albanese makes first official trip to Wellington, New Zealand
- EU commissioners Breton, Gentiloni and Hahn speaks at Austria’s Salzburg Summit
- Earnings from Meta Platforms
Thursday, July 27
- US Q2 Advance GDP Q/Q: 1.8%e v 2.0% prior, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories
- China industrial profits
- ECB rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bs to 4.25%
- Mexico unemployment, trade
- Singapore unemployment
- Russia hosts African heads of state for a summit
- Italy PM Meloni meets with President Biden at the White House
Friday, July 28
- BOJ rate decision: To keep rates steady, no change to YCC, possibly upgrade price outlook
- US PCE Core Deflator, consumer income, employment cost index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
- Australia retail sales
- Canada monthly GDP
- Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
- France GDP, CPI
- Germany CPI
- Japan Tokyo CPI, BOJ rate decision
- Singapore home prices
- Spain CPI, GDP
Sovereign Rating Updates:
- Netherlands (Moody’s)