Summary
United States: A Fresh Pair of Legs?
- Surprising data releases this week suggest the economy has stronger momentum than previously thought. The consumer continues to show remarkable resilience, and economic growth is respectable heading into the third quarter. However, while this week’s data certainly inject a bit of optimism into our assessment of current conditions, the economy is still facing notable headwinds, including rising inflation and a weakening labor market.
- Next week: Construction Spending (Wed.), ISM Manufacturing & Services (Wed. & Fri.), Employment (Fri.)
International: Uneven Momentum, Global Adjustments
- Eurozone September PMIs painted a mixed picture, with manufacturing activity weakening and services showing modest improvement. In the U.K., PMI readings disappointed across the board. On the monetary policy front, Sweden delivered a hawkish rate cut, Mexico opted for a cut with risks tilted toward further easing and Switzerland held policy rates steady.
- Next week: China PMIs (Tue.), Japan Tankan Survey (Wed.), Eurozone CPI (Wed.)
Credit Market Insights: Household Sentiment Slips
- Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released the Survey for Consumer Expectations for August. Overall, households have had a divided outlook on the economy.
Topic of the Week: Near-Term Global Outlook Still Clouded, but Horizon Is Brightening
- We explore how some of the growth dynamics facing the United States are similarly facing many other systemically important economic regions across the world.
