The Australian dollar is undergoing a corrective decline after reaching recent highs, with the current move driven by market reaction to newly released macroeconomic data. Earlier gains in AUD were supported by improving global risk sentiment and steady demand for commodity-linked currencies. However, weaker labour market figures have prompted a reassessment of expectations and triggered profit-taking.
Employment data published yesterday pointed to a slowdown in growth, raising concerns about the durability of the economic recovery. Although full-time employment increased, overall job growth came in below forecasts, while the unemployment rate showed little change. Together, these factors weighed on the Australian dollar and led to a reassessment of its short-term outlook following the prior rally.
Toward the end of the week, market participants will focus on upcoming macroeconomic releases, including data on economic activity, central bank commentary, and commodity market statistics. These factors may reshape expectations and influence the direction of commodity currencies.
AUD/USD
After reaching a yearly high near 0.7180, AUD/USD has pulled back, forming a “Bearish Harami” reversal pattern. A bearish close in the current session could increase the likelihood of a deeper correction towards 0.7100–0.7120.
At the same time, a renewed break above the recent high would signal continued bullish momentum and a return of buyers to the market.
Key events for AUD/USD:
- today at 13:00 (GMT+3): International Monetary Fund meetings;
- today at 18:30 (GMT+3): speech by FOMC member Mary Daly;
- today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions on AUD.
AUD/CAD
AUD/CAD is also moving lower, reflecting both weakness in the Australian dollar and relative resilience of the Canadian currency. Commodity market dynamics remain an additional driver, with energy prices and global demand expectations continuing to play a key role.
Technical analysis suggests the potential for a correction towards 0.9730–0.9760, as a “Dark Cloud Cover” reversal pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. A retest of recent highs will help assess the strength of demand and the likelihood of a renewed uptrend.
Key events for AUD/CAD:
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian housing starts;
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): foreign investment in Canadian securities;
- today at 20:00 (GMT+3): Baker Hughes rig count.
The current pullback in the Australian dollar follows weaker labour market data after a period of steady gains. If downward pressure persists, the correction may deepen. However, stabilisation in the external environment and supportive incoming data could allow the broader upward trend to resume.
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