HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisWeekly Focus: From Trade War to Central Bank Minutes

Weekly Focus: From Trade War to Central Bank Minutes

Apr 06 18, 14:37 GMT

Market movers ahead

The US-China trade conflict will be the most important thing to follow in China next week. We believe we have entered a crucial phase and that we may be past the worst.
CPI core numbers will be in focus in the US next week, as well as the FOMC minutes from the March meeting.
In the euro area, the most interesting release is the ECB minutes from the March meeting.
In the Nordic region, we are due to get consumer price data.

Global macro and market themes

Trade war round two is over and the next step is the US hearing period (lasting until 15 May). However, it is not impossible that we have seen the worst on the trade front for now so keep an eye on this.
Growth momentum is peaking according to our MacroScope monitor, amid recent soft indications that data could delay the next step in the ECB announcement. Current PMI levels are consistent with 2.1% y/y growth, compared with the ECB’s 2.4% estimate. A revision of its forecast and slower normalisation could be warranted.
Markets have traded range bound recently, despite the ‘trade war’. We still expect EUR/USD to be 1.28 on a 12M horizon.

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