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Euro Unchanged, US Jobless Claims Next

EUR/USD continues to show limited movement. On Thursday, the pair is trading at 1.2371, down 0.03% on the day. On the release front, the eurozone current account surplus dropped to EUR 35.1 billion, but beat the estimate of EUR 32.3 billion. In the US, unemployment claims is expected to drop to 230 thousand, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is forecast to soften to 20.8 points. On Friday, there are no major events. Germany releases PPI and the Eurozone publishes consumer confidence.

Eurozone inflation improved in March, but still remain short of the ECB target of 2.0%. Final CPI came in at 1.3%, up from 1.1% a month earlier. Still, the reading fell short of the estimate of 1.4%. As long as inflation remains low, there will be little pressure on the ECB to tighten its accommodative monetary policy. The ECB’s stimulus program is scheduled to wind up in September, but an increase in interest rates is unlikely before 2019.

The well-respected ZEW Economic Sentiment releases were a disappointment earlier this week. The April reports in Germany and the eurozone were much weaker than expected, but investors shrugged off the numbers as risk appetite has improved. The German release of -8.2 points showed pessimism on the part of institutional investors and analysts and marked the weakest reading since November 2012. The eurozone reading of 1.9 was the lowest since July 2o16. The German and eurozone economies remain solid, making these weak readings all the more surprising. Investors will be hoping that these ZEW releases are one-time blips and that the May readings will be in line with recent releases.

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