The four-hour AUDJPY established another higher high in the uptrend it started recording on March 8. Trading under the two-month peak of 79.39 now the short-term risk looks neutral to negative as long as the RSI hovers around 50 and the MACD keeps losing strength below its red signal line.
A southward extension below the 61.8% Fibonacci of 78.89 of the downleg from 79.63 to 77.71 would likely target the 200-period moving average currently at 78.80 . Another leg lower and particularly a decisive close below the 50% Fibonacci of 78.67 would invalidate the recent bullish move, probably staging a deeper decline towards the next key support near the 38.2% Fibonacci of 78.44.
Otherwise, the pair could meet the former resistance area around the 78.6% Fibonacci of 79.21 before heading up to the peak of 79.39. Higher, the market could search for a new top within the congested region of 79.55, though, only a significant rally above 79.80 would generate fresh buying interest for the pair. In this case the bulls would also bring the January upward pattern back into play.
In brief, AUDJPY faces a neutral-to bearish bias in the short term, while in the bigger picture the market is in a range between 79.80 and 77.71.
