NZDUSD faced little volatility during the Asian trading session after a more-or-less expected 50bps rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
The pair keeps building floor around the 0.6200 level and marginally above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), raising hopes for an upside correction, though with the RSI maintaining a downtrend comfortably below its 50 neutral mark and the MACD remaining negatively charged below its red signal line, the luck seems to be on the bears’ side. It’s also worthy to note that the 20-day SMA has slipped below the 50-day SMA, flagging a deterioration in the short-term trend.
Sellers could gain the upper hand if the pair resumes its negative trajectory below the 200-day SMA at 0.6180. Consequently, the price could slide towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upleg at 0.6145, while a steeper decline may reach the 0.6100 region, which provided a footing back in November. Falling lower, the bears will next head for the 50% Fibonacci of 0.6025 and the 0.6000 psychological mark.
On the upside, there is a challenging border within the 0.6300-0.6365 region, where the key constraining line from December 2020, the 23.5% Fibonacci mark and the shorter-term SMAs are positioned. If the bulls manage to breach that wall, the recovery could pick up steam towards the 0.6465 resistance zone. Even higher, all eyes will turn to the 0.6550 bar, which has been a caution area since May 2022.
In brief, NZDUSD sellers could remain active in the coming sessions, waiting for a decisive close below the 200-day SMA to press the market lower.
