‘It is becoming clear that the Trump administration is one that will pursue a weaker dollar and criticise the currency policies of others. Under such conditions, U.S. yields and the dollar are losing their correlation. Any rise in yields resulting from monetary policy expectations will no longer be able to support the dollar as much.’ – Barclays (based on Reuters)
The Greenback experienced another leg down yesterday, having once again lost nearly 100 pips against the Japanese Yen. However, the exchange rate closed above the 112.60 psychological support level, which should technically now cause a U-turn. Technical indicators, on the other hand, are giving bearish signals, and the 20-day SMA recently crossed the 55-day one to the downside-also providing a sell signal. As a result, downside risks are relatively high today, in which case price could fall even below the 112.00 mark. With a lot of uncertainty present in the markets recently, we should not rule out the possibility of bulls taking over, but with the 115.00 handle remaining intact.
Today 53% of all open positions are long and 59% of all pending orders are to buy the Buck (previously 49% and 53%, respectively).