NIESR said UK economy is expected to grow around 15% in Q3 as the economy reopens, “on the assumption that Covid-19) remains contained. And that would leave GDP in September just around -10% lower than pre-pandemic level in February.
“Today’s ONS estimates suggest that GDP fell by a record 20.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of the year, thereby confirming the UK’s first recession since the financial crash. However, the monthly estimate for June suggests a rebound of 8.7 per cent, reflecting further easing of Covid-19 lockdown measures – though it remains a sixth below its level in February. Despite the recovery noted in June, the path ahead remains precarious. An extended period of growth will be required to make up the ground lost in recent months” Dr Kemar Whyte Senior Economist – Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting
