Australian Dollar weakens broadly today, on growing speculation of imminent easing after RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle’s speech yesterday. Westpac expects the measures to be announced on October 6, the same day as the government delivers budget, as a “Team Australia” move. RBA is expected to cut overnight cash rate down from 0.25% to 0.10%. Three year yield target will be lowered from 25% to 10% too. Additionally, RBA would expand asset purchases to government and semi government securities in maturities between 5 and 10 years.

AUD/JPY’s fall from 78.46 extends to as low as 74.76 so far today. The clean break of 55 day EMA affirms that tis’ now correcting whole rise form 59.89. AUD/JPY should be targeting 38.2% retracement at 7136.

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AUD/CAD is also worth a watch as the Aussie has been outperforming other commodity currencies for the past few months. Break of 0.9409 support should confirm that it’s, at least, starting a correction to whole rise form 0.8066 to 0.9696. Deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement at 0.9073. That, if happens, would mark the near term U-turn in Aussie’s general fortune.


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