RBA’s Hauser: Post-tariff China outlook positive but incomplete

In a speech focused on his recent visit to China following the sweeping tariff shifts of “Liberation Day”, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted there was a sense of “strong hand” in managing the economic fallout from US-imposed tariffs. Additionally, Australian firms operating in China perceived “opportunities amidst the risks”, as trade patterns began to shift.

However, Hauser was quick to stress that this view was inherently limited, anchored to a moment in time and shaped by a single national perspective.

Hauser laid out four key caveats. First, global tariff settings remain fluid, and data on their real-world economic effects is just beginning to emerge. Second, the assessments he heard may prove overly optimistic, domestic stimulus in China may underperform, and public tolerance for economic pain may be lower than expected.

Third, indirect “general equilibrium” effects could emerge, including the possibility of intensified competition from Chinese firms offloading excess supply originally intended for US markets. While sectoral overlap with Australia is limited, it is a concern shared across the Asia-Pacific region.

Finally, Hauser acknowledged the broader strategic uncertainties at play—factors beyond economics that could shape Australia’s position.

Full speech of RBA’s Hauser here.