Oil prices plunged overnight as markets reassessed geopolitical risk following what appears to be a restrained Iranian response to US strikes and a potential ceasefire between Iran and Israel. WTI tumbled sharply after reports that Iranian forces attacked a US base in Qatar—an incident that was intercepted with no reported casualties. The muted retaliation defused immediate fears of further escalation, setting the stage for a pullback in crude.
Sentiment turned further when US President Donald Trump declared a 12-hour ceasefire between Israel and Iran, announcing the end of what he called the “12 Day War.” While his comments on social media were optimistic and celebratory, the official Iranian response was more guarded. Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi emphasized that no agreement had been reached, though he indicated Iran would halt further retaliation if Israeli operations ceased by 4 a.m. Tehran time.
Technically, nonetheless, the steep selloff in WTI should have marked the complete of the whole rebound from 55.20 low at 78.87, well ahead of 81.01 key structural resistance. Short covering could come at around 61.8% retracement of 55.20 to 78.87 at 64.24, and bring bounce. That should set the range of sideway trading in the near term between 64/79.
