OECD’s latest Interim Economic Outlook projected global GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025, an upward revision from 2.9% in June, before easing to 2.9% in 2026. The agency said tariffs and policy uncertainty remain headwinds for trade and investment, but the upward revision shows the drag is proving smaller than previously feared.
In the U.S., GDP growth is projected to slow sharply, from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. The drag reflects the combined effect of tariff hikes, weaker net immigration, and a reduced federal government workforce.
China is also expected to lose momentum, easing from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026 as earlier stimulus fades and tariffs start to bite more fully.
In the Eurozone, growth is forecast at 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. The region continues to face increased trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainty, though these will be partially offset by stronger public investment programs and looser credit conditions.
On prices, the OECD expects headline G20 inflation to fall from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, reflecting weaker growth and softening labor markets. Core inflation in advanced economies is forecast to decline only marginally, from 2.6% to 2.5%, suggesting underlying price stickiness remains.
The report warned that risks to disinflation persist. Goods prices have edged higher again in some economies, and services inflation remains stubborn.
