NZD/USD has surged sharply this week and is now pressing key near-term resistance at 0.5852, as shifting global risk dynamics unexpectedly favor the Kiwi. With Dollar and Euro under pressure from Greenland-related geopolitical tensions, both New Zealand dollar and Australian Dollar have surprisingly emerged as relative safe havens, benefiting from stable domestic backdrops and distance from the dispute.
At the same, Yen remains under pressure, weighed down by an aggressive selloff in Japanese government bonds as markets price in post-election fiscal expansion. That divergence has left antipodean currencies unusually well-bid, along with Swiss Franc.
For Kiwi, attention now turns to New Zealand Q4 CPI, due Friday in Asia. The annual rate is expected to hold at 3.0%, right at the top of the RBNZ’s 2–3% target band. With the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, markets broadly agree the RBNZ has completed its easing cycle. The open question is timing of the next hike, not whether one eventually comes. CPI overshoot would sharply pull forward expectations and offer fresh support to NZD.
That focus will intensify at the February 18 OCR review, the first major policy decision under new Governor Anna Breman. Markets will be listening closely to the tone of the post-meeting press conference for clues on whether Breman leans hawkish, dovish, or neither.
Technically, NZD/USD’s dip to 0.5710 earlier this month was a little deeper than expected. But that didn’t alter the overall structure. The corrective down trend from 0.6119 (2025 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.5580.
Firm break of 0.5852 will resume the whole rally from 0.5580 and target 100% projection of 0.5580 to 0.5852 from 0.5710 at 0.6015. Decisive break of 0.6015 will solidify that NZD/USD is in an impulsive move that should be resuming whole rise from 0.5484 (2025 low) through 0.6119. In any case, outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.5710 support holds.
