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A Wild Week of Metals, Yields, Stocks and Dollar

Just after DOW hit new record high in the middle of last week, the rally was choked by skyrocketing treasury yields. Dollar surprisingly ended as the strongest one for the week, followed by Euro and then Sterling. Australian Dollar suffered most as it reversed some of the month's gains....

Copper Futures Surge To 9½-Year High, Look Extremely Overbought

Copper futures hit another more than nine-year high on Thursday, as the bullish momentum that’s been gathering pace since the beginning of February shows no sign of abating in the very near term. The price is increasing its distance above the moving averages (MA), which are all sloping upwards and...

Longer-Term Demand/Supply Outlook Remains Supportive of Copper Strength

Breaching the US9000/tonne benchmark, LME copper price skyrocketed to the highest level since 2011. The recent rally in copper price has been driven by hopes of stronger demand as global economic recovery accelerates and concerns over supply tightness in the metal. While the demand/supply looks positive for the metal...

Asian Open: Risk-off With A Twist Sends Wall Street Lower

Wall street was lower overnight as rising bonds yields continued to spook equity investors yet act as a tailwind for commodities and related forex markets. Asian Futures: The ASX 200 is expected to open flat with futures moving sideways overnight. Although Wall Street's negative lead could weigh on the index...

Reflation Theme Drives Commodities And Yields Higher

Market movers today A quiet day today with the German IFO survey for February as today's highlight. Later during the week we hear both from Fed chair Powell (Tuesday) and Fed vice chair Clarida (Wednesday) although they are unlikely to say anything new. On Friday we get Q4 GDP...

European Open: US Vaccinations To Rally From Here?

Biden think's he'll beat his own vaccine rollout target, copper and Asian indices are higher and forex awaits a catalyst. President Joe Biden remains confident that the US can exceed his target of achieving 100 million vaccinations within the first 100 days of his presidency. And so he should be...

Asian Open: Copper Sends Commodity FX To New Highs

AUD and NZD pairs rallied into the weekly close on Friday as commodities and, in particular copper, pushed aggressively higher. Commodities chalked up another broad rise last week, with the CRB index (commodities index) rising for a fourth consecutive week and closing at its highest level since November 2018. The...

Aussie Surged With Industrial Metal Prices, More Upside in Favor

Stocks markets took a breather last week while focus turned to surging industrial metal prices and treasury yields. Strength in metals was seen more about supply shortage than recovery in demand. That somewhat also reinforced reflation trades. US 10-year yield was back above 1.3%, German 10-year bund yield at...

Australian Dollar Skyrockets on Surging Metal, Markets Cheer PMIs

Australian Dollar overtakes Sterling as the strongest one for the week, as supported by return of risk-mode markets. In particular, industrial metal is having strong rally with copper trading up 2% at the time of writing. Sterling shrugs off poor retail sales but was supported by PMI and upbeat...

Rising US Yields Resuscitate Dollar, Scare Equities

Treasury yields jump again as stimulus draws closer, inflation bets continue to rise Dollar soars against yen, crashes gold; stocks ease back but no sign of panic Oil holds firm amid US disruptions, copper surges on growth optimism Yields rise across the board but only dollar shines The yield on...

Sunset Market Commentary

Markets The reflationary spirits were already wide awake during this morning’s Asian session and spilled over into European dealings without much ado. Investors put comfort from mostly better-than-expected growth figures as revealed by Japan overnight, showing they have become more resilient to the coronavirus measures. Second, and more importantly, the...

Asian Open: Low Volatility Overall, Commodities Slip At The Highs, UK Data In Focus

Volatility has subsided so we could expect range trading in today's Asian session. The UK's data dump is the main economic calendar event today. As shown on the dashboard, volatility was mostly contained overnight across most major asset classes. And this is no major surprise, given the lack of volumes...

Asia Open: Dollar Bears Lose Appetite, Key Reversals Form On US Indices

US indices provided a technical pattern at record highs, which can be indicative of a reversal. And bearish momentum on USD is coming into question. Are dollar bears losing their appetite? Key reversals form on US indices Copper continues to leave gold for dust Oil moves in on 200-month...

Stock Indices Are Screaming. But Why?: S&P 500, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, Copper

Stock markets are skyrocketing again today. The S&P 500 is approaching all-time highs as up over 175 handles off Sunday night Globex open. The index held the 200 Day Moving Average and long-term support from January 2018, and quickly began moving higher. S&Ps are currently back at trendline resistance...

All About The Base – AUDUSD

In many ways this week has provided a perfect storm for the AUDUSD to mount an upside challenge. Volatility has remained subdued as global equities spent the past week consolidating the strong gains of early November. The U.S. dollar as measured by the DXY index finally broke below the...

Elliott Wave View: Copper (HG) Still Has Further Upside

Short term Elliott Wave view in Copper (HG) suggests that the dips to 3.11 on November 11 ended wave ((ii)). The metal has resumed higher and ended wave ((iii)) at 3.52. Internal of wave ((iii)) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((ii)) low,...

Dr. Copper Giving Clues about USD/CNH?

The price of cooper is said to be a sign of economic growth and weakness. Hence, it is nicknamed Dr. Copper because when the economy is weak, one just needs to look to “the Doctor” to see if it is getting better.  It is used as a predicter of...

Elliott Wave View: Copper (HG) Correction In Progress

Short term Elliott Wave View in Copper (HG) indicates that the metal has ended the rally from March 19 low at $3.218. The entire rally is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. The 5 waves move higher ended wave ((1)) at $3.218. Wave ((2)) pullback is currently in...

Copper Futures Penetrates Ascending Line; Indicators Weaken

Copper futures penetrated the six-month ascending trend line to the downside, falling beneath the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The RSI indicator is standing in the negative zone, moving sideways, while the MACD oscillator is falling below the trigger line losing some momentum. A successful drop below the...

Aussie and Copper in for Weaker Prices – Elliott Wave Analysis

Aussie is currently turning down from the first 0.73 resistance. Move is quite strong, so it can be considered as a resumption of the downtrend into a much lower wave c. However, the US sessions can be very tricky, and in a lot of cases can cause a new...

Copper Futures Stop at 26-Month Highs; Positive Risks May Fade

Copper futures reached overbought levels according to the RSI and reversed lower after touching the 26-month peak of 3.0898 achieved on September 1. While the aforementioned technical indicator continues to slow down, mirroring the market’s bearish behavior over the past three days, the indicator is still moving in bullish territory, flagging that...

Copper Futures Uptrend Intact; Positive Backing Present

Copper futures maintain a steady bullish bearing after a bounce on the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which sent the commodity to a 25-Month peak of 3.040. The rising red Tenkan-sen line is promoting additional advances, while the bullish crossover of the 200-day SMA by the 100-day one may...

Copper Outlook: Rises On US-China Trade Talks, Progress In Covid-19 Treatment

Copper remains in green for the third consecutive day and pressures psychological $3.00 barrier, which was cracked on last week's spike to $3.0275 (new 26-month high), but rally failed to register weekly close above $3.00 level. Improved sentiment on US-China's commitment to their trade deal and progress in the latest...

Copper Futures Crawl Near 6-month High; Indicators Seem Overbought

Copper is trading around the vicinity of the six-month top of 2.7644, achieved earlier today, continuing the buying interest that started on March 19. Looking at the short-term oscillators, the stochastic and the RSI signal a slight decrease around their overbought marks as they are losing momentum. However, the MACD...

Copper Futures Give Up Some Gains; Positive Picture Stands

Copper futures retreated slightly from their freshly plotted four-and-a-half month high of 2.6959. Confirming the bullish sentiment that has mostly controlled the ascent from the 45-month low of 1.9684 are the rising Ichimoku lines. Additionally, the improving 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is endorsing forthcoming advances. The short-term oscillators are...

Copper Futures Bullish Correction Under Strain

Copper futures’ correction seems to be faltering below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and under the 2.3175 level – that being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 2.8819 to 1.9684 – as it edges in the Ichimoku cloud. The Ichimoku lines support the bullish run...

Copper Price Fell to Nearly Two-Week Low on Renewed Concerns about Weaker Demand

Copper price fell further on Monday, extending pullback from last week’s recovery high ($2.3929) into third straight day. Future contract for July’s delivery fell to the lowest in nearly two weeks ($2.2828) on Monday, but stays for now above cracked initial support at $2.2834 (Fibo 23.6% of $1.9711/$2.3929) and more...

Tying it All Together with Copper

Copper is often referred to as “Dr Copper”,  as it is often viewed as a gauge of world economic health.  The price of copper has turned higher recently, as it is often correlated with the stock prices and commodity currencies, such as AUD/USD.  We have discussed recently how it...

Copper Futures Maintain Negative Outlook Despite Pullback

Copper futures’ bullish correction from the 45-month low of 1.9684 appears to have lost steam as it approaches the restrictive trend line drawn from the 8½-month peak of 2.8819. Further suggesting that positive momentum is wavering is the RSI that has dipped back below its neutral 50 mark and...

Copper Futures on Sidelines Move in Ascending Triangle

Copper futures with delivery on May have been trading within an ascending triangle over the last couple of weeks, with strong resistance at the 2.2345 barrier. The short-term moving averages lines are flattening near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the negative movement from 2.5268 to 1.9683 at 2.1815. Technically, the MACD, holding...