Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1897; (P) 1.1923 (R1) 1.1944; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook as consolidation from 1.2069 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Below 1.1822 will bring deeper fall. But after all, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1661 holds. Break of 1.2069 will extend larger rise from 1.0339 to next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. Nonetheless, break of 1.1661 will bring much lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1774) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it's developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD - 1.1918

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1925

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1929

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1909

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1905

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.1980, Target: 1.1880, Stop: 1.2015

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.1980, Target: 1.1880, Stop: 1.2015

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The single currency has remained confined within near term established range and further sideways trading is in store, whilst gain to 1.1950-55 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 1.1980 and bring another decline later. Below 1.1885-90 would bring weakness to 1.1850, break there would signal the rebound from 1.1823 has ended, then test of this level would follow, break there would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.2070 earlier and extend the fall from there to 1.1815-18 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1662-1.2070), then 1.1790-00 but downside should be limited to previous support at 1.1773. 

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro again on subsequent recovery as 1.1980 resistance should limit upside. Only a firm break above said resistance at 1.1980 would abort and signal the fall from 1.2070 has ended at 1.1823, bring further gain to 1.2000 and possibly towards 1.2025-30.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 1.06% against the CAD and closed at 1.2236.

The Canadian Dollar surged against the USD, after the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised investors with its second interest rate rise in three months.

The BoC, at its latest monetary policy meeting, raised its benchmark interest rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, on the heels of robust economic data that supported the central bank’s view that growth in Canada is becoming more broadly-based and self-sustaining. However, the BoC indicated that its appetite for further tightening may be curbed by a rising domestic currency and sluggish price pressures.

In other economic news, Canada’s international merchandise trade deficit fell more-than-expected to C$3.04 billion in July, from a revised deficit of C$3.76 billion in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2234, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2115, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1996. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2384, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2534.

Ahead in the day, market participants will keep a close watch on Canada’s building permits for July followed by Ivey PMI for August.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3013; (P) 1.3047; (R1) 1.3077; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2773 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.3267 resistance. Break will target 1.3444 key resistance level next. Price actions from 1.1946 are still seen as a corrective pattern. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.3444 to limit upside to bring larger down trend reversal eventually. On the downside, below 1.2908 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2773.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

USD/JPY - 109.10

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level              : 109.08

Kijun-Sen level                  : 108.93

Ichimoku cloud top             : 109.17

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 108.86

Original strategy  :

Sell at 109.55, Target: 108.55, Stop: 109.90

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 109.55, Target: 108.55, Stop: 109.90

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Dollar’s rebound after falling to 108.45 yesterday suggests consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 109.40 is likely, however, reckon upside would be limited to 109.55-60 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 110.67-108.45) and bring another decline, below said support at 108.45 would extend weakness towards last week’s low at 108.27 but break there is needed to retain bearishness and extend the fall from 114.50 to another previous chart support at 108.13, having said that, the greenback needs to penetrate this chart support to confirm early selloff from 118.66 has resumed for subsequent weakness to 107.70-75 which is likely to hold from here. 

In view of this, we are looking to sell dollar on further subsequent recovery as 109.55-60 should limit upside and bring another decline later. Above 109.82-83 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 110.67-108.45 and previous resistance) would abort and signal low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 110.00-05 but price should falter well below resistance at 110.49.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9535; (P) 0.9559; (R1) 0.9590; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 0.9527 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.9427 first. Break of 0.9427 will resume whole decline from 1.3042. Meanwhile, considering it's close to to 0.9443 key support, consolidation from 0.9427 might extend further. But still, break of 0.9772 resistance is needed to confirm near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish for another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend form 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.65; (P) 109.02; (R1) 109.60; More...

USD/JPY recovered ahead of 108.12/26 support zone and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the downside, decisive break of 108.12 will resume the whole corrective decline from 118.65. Next target will be 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. In any case, outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 110.94 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it's uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it's a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Weekly

    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
    •    Time of formation: 24 Jul 2017
    •    Trend bias: Up

Daily

    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning doji
    •    Time of formation: 25 Jul 2017
    •    Trend bias: Up

EUR/CHF – 1.1408

Although the single currency has retreated after rising to 1.1473 last week and further consolidation is in store, as long as indicated support at 1.1355 holds, bullishness remains for another rebound, above resistance at 1.1473-79 would add credence to our view that pullback from 1.1538 has ended at 1.1259 and bring further gain to 1.1500, then retest of 1.1538. Having said that, only a break of this recent high would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway to 1.1600-10 but further sharp move beyond 1.1700 should not be repeated and price should falter below 1.1770-80, bring retreat later.

On the downside, as long as said support at 1.1355-56 holds, bullishness remains for another rise later. Below said support would defer and risk test of 1.1320-25, break there would suggest the rebound from 1.1259 has ended instead, bring retest of this level, below there would extend the corrective fall from 1.1538 top for retracement of recent upmove to 1.1185 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538), however, sharp fall below 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) should not be repeated and 1.1050 would hold, bring rebound later. 

Recommendation: Hold long entered at 1.1355 for 1.1555 with stop below 1.1350.

On the weekly chart, despite last week’s rebound to 1.1473, as the single currency has retreated after failing to penetrate indicated resistance at 1.1479, suggesting further sideways trading would take place, however, still reckon downside would be limited to support at 1.1355-59 and bring another rebound, a firm break above said resistance at 1.1473-79 would signal the pullback from 1.1538 has ended at 1.1259 and bring retest of this level. Only a break of this recent high would revive bullishness and extend the major rise from 0.8426 low for headway to 1.1590-00, then towards 1.1700-10 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1800 and reckon 1.1900-10 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later. 

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.1355-59 and bring another rise later. Below 1.1320-25 would risk test of 1.1259-61 (said support and current level of the Tenkan-Sen), a weekly close below there would shift near term risk to the downside and suggest a temporary top is formed instead, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.1100-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0833-1.1538), then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1087) but reckon support at 1.0987 would remain intact.

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: N/A
    •    ime of formation: N/A
    •    Trend bias: Near term up

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
    •    Time of formation: 21 Jul 2017
    •    Trend bias: Up

EURGBP – 0.9141

Euro’s retreat after rising to 0.9307 last week has retained our view that further consolidation below this level would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9115) is likely, break there would bring retracement to 0.9060-65, however, reckon support at 0.9008 would hold and bring another rise later, above 0.9225-30 would suggest the pullback from 0.9307 has ended, bring further gain to 0.9280 but break of said resistance at 0.9307 is needed to confirm medium term upmove has resumed and extend headway to 0.9350-55. Having said that, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9380-85 (100% projection of 0.8312-0.8950 measuring from 0.8743) and reckon 0.9400-10 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a strong retreat to take place later.

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9115) is likely, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9060-65 and bring another rise later. A drop below said support at 0.9008 would defer and suggest a temporary top has been formed at 0.9307, bring retracement of recent upmove to previous resistance at 0.8950 and later towards the upper Kumo (now at 0.8906), having said that, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8830-35 and the lower Kumo (now at 0.8799) would contain downside, bring another rise later.

Recommendation: Buy again at 0.9050 for 0.9250 with stop below 0.8980.

On the weekly chart, as the single currency has retreated after rising to 0.9307 last week (black candlestick with long upper shadow did form last week), retaining our view that consolidation below said resistance would take place and initial downside risk remains for correction to 0.9095-00, then 0.9050-60, however, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9025) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above 0.9225-30 would bring retest of said resistance at 0.9307 but break there is needed to confirm recent erratic rise from 0.8304 has resumed and extend gain to 0.9350-60, then 0.9380-85 (100% projection of 0.8312-0.8950 measuring from 0.8743). Looking ahead, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal the entire correction from 0.9576 top has ended at 0.8304 and encourage for further subsequent gain to 0.9450.

On the downside, although pullback to 0.9095-00 and 0.9050-60 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9025) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A drop below support at 0.8891 would defer and suggest ta temporary top has possibly been formed, bring retracement of recent upmove to 0.885-60, then test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.8810) but reckon support at 0.8743 would hold. Only a weekly close below this support would retain bearishness for subsequent decline to 0.8650-55 but the lower Kumo (now at 0.8571) should remain intact, bring another rally later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.65; (P) 142.16; (R1) 142.98; More

GBP/JPY recovers after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 141.17 will target 139.29 support first. Break will extend the fall from 147.76 and target 135.58 key support level. At this point, price actions from 148.42 are seen as a sideway consolidation pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support from 135.58 to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 143.18 will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, the sideway pattern from 148.42 is still unfolding. In case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Medium term rise from 122.36 is expected to resume later. And break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. However, firm break of 135.58/39 will dampen the bullish view and turn focus back to 122.36 low.