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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.66; (P) 129.19; (R1) 129.95; More...
With 129.92 minor resistance intact, correction from 131.39 short term top could extend lower. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 131.39 at 127.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 129.92 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 131.39 first. Nonetheless, firm break of 127.95 will bring deeper decline to 125.80 resistance turned support before completing the correction.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.


EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9015; (P) 0.9036; (R1) 0.9062; More
A temporary top is in place at 0.9087 in EUR/GBP and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rise is still expected as long as 0.8890 support holds. Above 0.9087 will extend the rebound from 0.8312 to 0.9304 key high. At this point, there is no clear sign of up trend resumption yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304 to limit upside and bring another fall. On the downside, break of 0.8890 will be the first indication of near term reversal. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.8742 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it is finished yet. But in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound. Whole up trend from 0.6935 is expected to resume after consolidation from 0.9304 completes.


EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4846; (P) 1.4891; (R1) 1.4948; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on neutral at this point. Near term outlook stays bullish with 1.4777 support intact and further rally is expected. As noted before, correction from 1.5226 should have completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Above 1.4964 will target 1.5073 resistance first. Break of 1.5073 will likely resume the rise from 1.3624 and target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4421 at 1.5411 next. However, firm break of 1.4777 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias to the downside for 1.4564 support. Break will extend the correction from 1.5226 through 1.4421.
In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, another decline will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1243; (P) 1.1345; (R1) 1.1429; More...
EUR/CHF's correction extended to as low as 1.1260 and draws support from 38.2% retracement of 1.0830 to 1.1537 at 1.1267 to recover. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Break of 1.1394 will suggests that such pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1537 first. However, firm break of 1.1267 will extend the fall and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1100.
In the bigger picture, firm break of 1.1198 key resistance confirms resumption of the long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015. In this case, EUR/CHF would eventually head back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1087 resistance turned support holds.


EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1710; (P) 1.1736 (R1) 1.1784; More...
EUR/USD's pull back from 1.1908 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1119 to 1.1908 at 1.1606 to bring rebound. But break of 1.1908 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more consolidation would be seen in near term. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.1606 would bring deeper pull back to 61.8% retracement at 1.1420.
In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it's developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.


GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2970; (P) 1.2998; (R1) 1.3030; More...
GBP/USD lost some downside momentum but there is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2932 support first. Price actions from 1.1946 are seen as a corrective pattern, no change is this view. Such correction could have completed at 1.3267 already. Break of 1.2932 will affirm this bearish case and target 1.2588 key near term support for confirmation. On the upside, however, above 1.3058 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for recovery first. But deeper fall is expected as long as 1.3267 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is expected, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.


USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9583; (P) 0.9663; (R1) 0.9716; More...
At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral. Outlook is a bit mixed as the pair is bounded inside medium term falling channel. The pair was also limited below 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9783. Firm break of 0.9594 will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9437. This could also extend the fall through 1.0342 through 0.9437/43 key support level. On the upside, above 0.9772 will revive the bullish case of reversal and turn bias back to the upside.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 key support level. And long term range trading in 0.9443/1.0342 is extending with another rise. At this point, there is no sign of an up trend yet. Hence, while further rise is expected in USD/CHF, we'll start to be cautious on loss of momentum above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9996.


USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.62; (P) 109.98; (R1) 110.42; More...
USD/JPY's fall from 114.49 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 108.81 support. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, break of 111.04 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it's uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it's a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.


USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2662; (P) 1.2692; (R1) 1.2724; More....
USD/CAD's rebound from 1.2412 short term bottom is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940. Considering the the pair is losing upside momentum, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2940 to complete the correction. On the downside, below 1.2552 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.2412 low first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. A short term bottom is formed at 1.2412 after hitting 61.8% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.2415. But there is no sign of completion of the correction yet. Break of 1.2412 will target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.


AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7857; (P) 0.7885; (R1) 0.7916; More...
AUD/USD's pull back from 0.8065 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper fall would be seen to 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783). But we'd expect strong support there to bring rebound. Above 0.7948 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8065. But decisive break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidative trading in near term.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.


