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The GBPUSD was corrected lower last week bottomed at 1.2932 but still unable to break below the trend line support as you can see on my daily chart below. The bearish pin bar scenario remains valid, but need a clear break below the trend line support and 1.2935 key support to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2810/00 or lower. On the upside, 1.3100 remains a key resistance at this phase. A clear break above that resistance would reactivate my bullish mode targeting 1.3350 area.

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.1682. Price closed above weekly EMA 200, suggests further potential bullish scenario. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.1712 (2015 high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.1875 (2010 low) before targeting 1.2000 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.1650. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1600 – 1.1580 region but overall I remain bullish and any downside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to buy.

The Canadian Dollar advanced against the Greenback as Friday's retail sales report showed better-than-expected figures. Following the data release, the USD/CAD currency pair marked a sharp decline, falling 0.24% to 1.2572. Statistics Canada reported that the country's retail sales rose for the third consecutive month in May, surging 0.6% to a record-high of C$48.9B, which was well above expectations for a 0.3% gain. An increase was mainly supported by higher sales of motor vehicles and parts. Moreover, the Bank of Canada, after making the first rate hike in seven years earlier in the month, is expected to make one more rate increase in October, as the strong figures confirmed healthy economic growth.

An early Monday's morning showed that the EUR/USD stopped the surge that was triggered by a speech delivered by Mario Draghi last Thursday. The point, at which the pair made a u-turn, represents a reaction high of a three month long ascending channel. Taking into account how easily the Euro fell through the 20-hour SMA and the monthly R2 at 1.1657, allows assuming that it will not be stopped by the 55-hour SMA as well. The closest barrier that has a chance to slow down the drop is the weekly PP at 1.1594 that will be additionally backed up by the 100-hour SMA. Nevertheless, traders should take into account that a release of a number of fundamental data today and tomorrow might either accelerate the fall, or facilitate to a premature rebound.

The Sterling has been appreciating against the US Dollar for consecutive three days. It reached the 1.3020 mark mid-Friday prior to passing through the 200-hour SMA. The rate managed to recover all losses and surpass from below the 200-, 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Subsequently, the Pound was stranded between the latter two for a brief period of time before large price swings resulted in a push north. Bullish trend indicators are starting to lose ground, suggesting that some downside potential may prevail. This assumption is in line with characteristics of the ascending wedge in which the pair is currently trading. Thus, it is likely that the price goes up for a momentum but then remains relatively stable. A breakout of the 55- and 200-hour SMAs should eventually work as a bearish indication of further momentum down.

After hitting the upper channel line on Thursday, the US Dollar continued its bearish march against the Yen. The American currency fell as low as the 111.10 mark and has not since shows any signs of recovering. However, this sentiment may change in the nearest hours, taking into account that the pair is located in the oversold region. The downside limit may be the weekly S1 at 110.48, while the upper barrier could be formed either by the monthly PP at 110.39 or by an intersection of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs being located in the 111.60/80 territory. Thus, the lines of the senior channel down should be altered slightly in order to adjust to the movements of the price.

In line with expectations, Friday's trading session the yellow metal closed above the 1,250 level, as it faced no sizable resistance barriers on its way. For the same reason, in the Monday's morning it continued the surge, although at a slower pace. In case the pair will retreat from the monthly PP at 1,258.37, the subsequent fall should be stopped by a combination of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,249.16 and the 55-hour SMA or the weekly PP at 1,246.65 and the 100-hour SMA. However, given that the pair is moving in a one month long ascending channel, it is unlikely that a sharp drop will follow. In contrast, the rate, most probably, is going to try to reach the pattern's upper trend-line and only afterwards make a fully-fledged rebound.

WTI Oil is in recovery mode on Monday after sharp two-day fall on Thu/Fri was triggered on strong upside rejection at 47.72 (false break above key $47.30 barrier.

Pullback found ground at $45.39, just above strong supports at $45.24/19 (4-hr cloud base / Fibo 61.8% of $43.63/$47.72 upleg), with subsequent rally pressuring first pivot at $46.28 (Fibo 38.2% of $47.72/$45.39 downleg / daily Tenkan-sen).

Technical studies are in mixed mode on daily chart, but bias remains shifted lower as descending and widening daily cloud continues to weigh.

Extended rallies should be capped by cloud base ($47.08), ahead of fresh downside which may extend to $44.88 (daily Kijun-sen) on violation of $45.24/19 supports.

Res: 46.28, 46.55, 46.83, 47.08
Sup: 45.95, 45.53, 45.19, 44.88

Spot Gold remains firm on Monday and extends gains to fresh one-month high at $1257, just tick ahead of $1258 target (23 June high), after bulls penetrated daily cloud (cloud base lies at $1255).

Rally may extend towards $1261 (Fibo 61.8% of $1296/$1204 descend) which marks next target and strong barrier.

Gold price has been in steep bull-channel from $1204 low in past two weeks, with consolidative / corrective action anticipated in the near-term on strongly overbought slow stochastic on daily chart.

Lack of firmer bearish signal keeps bulls in play for now.

Session low at $1251 marks initial support, with converged 55/100SMA's in attempt to form bull-cross at $1247 reinforced by weekly cloud top), offering solid support, which is expected to contain extended dips.

Res: 1258, 1261, 1265, 1270
Sup: 1255, 1251, 1247, 1243

A sense of caution seems to be the theme for the financial markets as trading gets underway for the week, with investors braced and preparing for an incredibly busy week packed with both crucial economic reports and major risk events.

Asian stocks set the tone in early trade by trading mixed with European markets following a similar pattern ahead of the outcome of the ongoing OPEC meeting. With low oil prices still weighing on sentiment and increasing political uncertainty from the US denting appetite for riskier assets, Wall Street is at threat ofcoming under further pressure this afternoon.

It would likely take an unexpected surprise from the OPEC meeting to inspire some risk appetite back into the market, while any further concerns over political instability in Washington is seen as the likely catalyst to inspiring further demand from investors for safe-havens.

IMF downgrades US growth forecastfor 2017 and 2018

Uncertainty overPresident Trump's administration policies has prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revise down its US growth outlook from 2.3% to 2.1% this year and to 2.1% from 2.5% in 2018. Sentiment towards the Dollar was already turning increasingly bearish amid the political drama in Washington, as well as concerns over low inflation weighing on US interest rate expectations and the fresh IMF downgrade bombshell is seen as a risk to pressuring prices further.

Investors will direct their attention towards the pending FOMC rate decision this week which markets widely expect to conclude with rates left unchanged. With no press conference scheduled after the meeting, market players will closely scrutinize the policy statement for additional clues on when the central bank plans to normalize its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

Sterling inches higher as IMF downgrades UK growth

Sterling edged higher on Monday despite the IMF lowering its UK GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.7% in 2017 due to weaker than expected economic activity. I believe that the appreciation observed in the GBPUSD early Monday has nothing to do with a change of bias towards the Sterling, but rather the ongoing sour sentiment towards the Dollar. The market expectations still appear to be short on the British pound, especially considering how the deteriorating economic fundamentals at homes, political risk and Brexit uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on the currency.

Market players will direct their attention towards the preliminary second-quarter gross-domestic-product figures for the UK due to be released on Wednesday, which should offer further insight into the health of the nation as it tackles Brexit. A figure below the market consensus of 0.3% is likely to entice bears to attack the British Pound as Brexit concerns sour attraction towards the currency.

OPEC meeting in focus

Monday's main course and potential market shaker will be the OPEC committee meetingin the Russian city of St Petersburg, where the cartel is expected to discuss compliance with the production cut deal. With the oversupply fears still a major theme that continues to punish oil markets, investors will be paying very close attention to see if anything is discussed about the rising output in Nigeria and Libya. Russia has already called on OPEC to cap output from Nigeria and Libya in the near future and it will be interesting to see if any new agreements are proposed for both nations to join the oil production cut agreement. Oil prices are at risks of trading lower if the OPEC meeting concludes with nothing new brought to the table.From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude remains under pressure on the daily charts and a breakdown below $45.50 should encourage a further depreciation towards $44.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold

Gold edged to a near four-week high at $1257 during Monday's trading session on the back of Dollar weakness. With investors adopting a cautious approach ahead of an explosively data-packed and event-filled week, safe-haven assets such as Gold could come back into fashion. Although the rising prospects of tighter global monetary policy still have a grip on the zero-yielding metal in the longer term, short term bulls are currently in control. Technical traders may observe how Gold prices react to the $1260 resistance level this week. A break above $1260 should open a path higher towards $1268.