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EURUSD - The pair closed higher on a rally the past week leaving risk of price extension on the cards. Resistance comes in at 1.1500 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1550 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1600 level where a break will expose the 1.1650 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1400 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1350 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1300 level. All in all, EURUSD faces further upside pressure.

GOLD - The commodity continues to face downside pressure leaving risk to the downside. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,230.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,220.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,210.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,200.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,250.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,260.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,270.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,280.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further.

Could be an exciting week as the market deals in the afterglow of a recognised global shift by central banks to withdraw emergency accommodation. But so far in the early trade market is tending to a bit of a hangover at the beginning of Asia after a pivotal week for G10 currencies.

Hawkishness is very contagious and while there may be a lull in price action due to the US holiday-shortened week and of course Presidents Trumps first G-20 around the corner. I expect the central bank theme to remain the primary focus as the markets start to gauge the intensity of this apparent policy shift as well as what other global central banks will join the party.

Top side fervour on the on the EUR and CAD has a abated as dealers turn cautious waiting to see if the central bank hawkish push continues or is challenged by incoming data.

Looking between the lines, for the Feds at least, it appears there's a gradual transition afoot beyond data dependence to a greater concern about the adverse financial market impact from elevated asset prices.

Australian Dollar

With the RBA on tap, everyone is focused on hawkish prospects for Tuesday's RBA meeting. There's been a subtle bid in the Australian Dollar since the Bank of Canada hawkish surprise.But demand accelerated last Wednesday when the street started to price in concerted efforts by Global Central Banks to withdraw accommodations The seduction to catch a policy shift is far too high and predictable given the string of recent hawkish surprises But in reality, it's difficult to see where this hawkish RBA shift is justified. Traders could be in for a reality check if the RBA sits neutral and would likely dent the official coordination narrative that the markets have been building on.

Japanese Yen

Japan Prime Minister Abe's Liberal Democratic Party suffered an epic defeat in an election in Tokyo this weekend. Obviously, the market has bigger fish to fry as USDJPY remains very resilient trading slightly lower than Friday NY close.

Euro

The Euro is taking a breather in early APAC trade. But we ended the week on a cautious note as some thought the ECB might want to soften the rhetoric after the market's initial reaction to the Draghi Taper announcement. Perhaps traders are putting more credibility behind that mysterious ECB source that reminded the market it ‘overreacted' to a misunderstood Draghi,

EUR/USD's rally resumed last week and powered through 1.1298 resistance to as high as 1.1444. With a temporary top in place, initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation. But downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1291 support to bring another rise. Break of 1.1444 will extend the rally from 1.0339 low to 1.1615 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1776). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It's still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. But in either case, further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516

USD/JPY rose further to as high as 112.91 last week but failed to break through medium term channel resistance and retreated. With a temporary top formed, initial bias is neutral this week first. Near term outlook stays cautiously bullish as long as 110.94 support holds. Sustained break of the medium term channel resistance will argue that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.94 will argue that rebound from 108.81 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for this support instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it's uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it's a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. Meanwhile,

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD's strong rally last week indicates that pull back from 1.3047 has completed at 1.2588 already. And the larger correction from 1.1946 is still in progress. With a temporary top formed at 1.3029, initial bias is neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 1.2849 support to bring rise resumption. Break of 1.3029 will send GBP/USD through 1.3047 to 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168 next.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is now in favor, overall outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. However, firm break of 1.3444 should confirm reversal and turn outlook bullish.

USD/CHF's down trend from 1.0342 resumed last week and reached as low as 0.9552. A temporary low is in place and initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidation first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.9770 resistance and bring another decline. Below 0.9551 will target 0.9443 key support level. At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

AUD/USD's rally from 0.7328 resumed last week and reached as high as 0.7711. A temporary top is formed and initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation first. Another rise is expected as long as 0.7534 support holds. Above 0.7711 will target 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we'd be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. On the downside, break of 0.7534 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8096) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

USD/CAD's decline accelerated last week to as low as 1.2945. 1.2968 cluster support, 61.8% retracement of 1.2460 to 1.3793 at 1.2969 was already met but there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.2460 has completed at 1.3793 already. Sustained trading below 1.2968/9 will target 1.2460 next. On the upside, above 1.3045 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 1.3164 support turned resistance first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The second leg should have finished at 1.3793. Break of 1.2460 will tend such correction to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road. But firm break of 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 will raise doubt over this view.

GBP/JPY's sharp rise last week confirmed that pull back from 148.09 has completed at 138.65 already. With a temporary top in place at 146.52, intraday bias is neutral this week first for consolidation. But downside of retreat should be contained by 143.25 minor support and bring rally resumption. Above 146.52 will turn bias to the upside to retest 148.09/42 resistance zone. Decisive break there will extend whole rally from 122.36 to long term fibonacci level at 150.43 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 122.36 is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case the sideway pattern from 148.42 extends, we'd be looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.

In the longer term picture, it remains to be confirmed is whole down trend from 195.86 has completed at 122.36 already and there is no confirmation yet. But in any case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. And with that, the 55 month EMA will be firmly taken out which suggests that price actions from 116.83 is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade.