Sample Category Title

Australia’s Building Approvals Sharply Declined In May, Manufacturing Sector Advanced In June

GCI Financial

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.07% against the USD and closed at 0.7687 on Friday.

LME Copper prices rose 0.03% or $2.0/MT to $5907.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.6% or $11.0/MT to $1908.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7675, with the AUD trading 0.16% lower against the USD from Friday's close, following downbeat Australian building approvals data.

Data showed that Australia's seasonally adjusted building approvals slid 5.6% on a monthly basis in May, more than market expectations for a drop of 1.3%. In the previous month, building approvals had recorded a revised rise of 4.8%. On the contrary, the nation's AIG performance of manufacturing index rose to a level of 55.0 in June, expanding for the ninth consecutive month and following a reading of 54.8 in the prior month.

Elsewhere in China, Australia's largest trading partner, Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI rose more-than-expected to a level of 50.4 in June, crawling out of the contraction territory and marking a three-month high level. In the previous month, the PMI index had recorded a reading of 49.6, while markets expected for a rise to a level of 49.8.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7660, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7644. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7698, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7720.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Euro-Zone’s Annual Inflation Growth Slowed To A 6-Month Low In June

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.17% against the USD and closed at 1.1423 on Friday, after the Euro-zone's flash consumer price index (CPI) advanced 1.3% on an annual basis in June, rising at its weakest pace since the start of this year, thus suggesting that inflation in the common currency region is not yet on a stable path despite a variety of stimulus measures used by the European Central Bank. In the preceding month, the CPI had climbed 1.4%, while markets had envisaged for a gain of 1.2%.

Separately, Germany's retail sales rebounded more-than-expected by 0.5% on a monthly basis in May, compared to market consensus for an advance of 0.3%. In the prior month, retail sales had recorded a drop of 0.2%. Moreover, the nation's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 5.7% in June, at par with market expectations. On the other hand, the number of people unemployed in Germany unexpectedly rose by 7.0K in June, advancing for the first time in more than a year and defying market expectations for a drop of 10.0K. In the prior month, the number of people unemployed had dropped by a revised 7.0K.

In the US, data showed that personal spending climbed 0.1% in May, meeting market expectations. Personal spending had advanced 0.4% in the previous month. Also, the nation's personal income rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in May, surpassing market expectations for a gain of 0.3%. In the prior month, personal income had risen by a revised 0.3%.

Other economic data revealed that the US final Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to a level of 95.1 in June, hitting its lowest level since November 2016 and compared to a reading of 97.1 in the previous month. However, the index was revised higher from a level of 94.5 registered in the preliminary print. Further, the nation's Chicago Fed purchasing managers index unexpectedly advanced to a level of 65.7 in June, notching its highest in more than 3 years and following a level of 59.4 in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1416, with the EUR trading 0.06% lower against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1391, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1365. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1443, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1469.

Going ahead, investors will keep a close watch on the final Markit manufacturing PMI for June across the Euro-zone along with the region's unemployment rate data for May, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, the US ISM manufacturing PMI and the final Markit manufacturing PMI, both for June as well as construction spending data for May, will garner significant amount of market attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

UK Economic Growth Confirmed At 0.2% In The First Quarter

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.12% against the USD and closed at 1.3025 on Friday.

On the macro front, final estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) showed that the British economic growth sharply slowed to 0.2% on a quarterly basis in 1Q 2017, confirming the flash estimate and following an expansion of 0.7% in the prior quarter. In contrast, the nation's final total business investment rebounded 0.6% QoQ in 1Q 2017, in line with preliminary estimates and compared to a fall of 0.9% in the previous quarter.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3005, with the GBP trading 0.15% lower against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2957, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2910. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3041, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3078.

Moving ahead, market participants will look forward to UK's Markit manufacturing PMI for June, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Japan’s Manufacturing Sector Growth Eased Less Than Initially Estimated In June

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.45% against the JPY and closed at 112.50 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.41, with the USD trading 0.08% lower against the JPY from Friday's close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan's final Nikkei manufacturing PMI dropped to a level of 52.4 in June, while the preliminary figures had indicated a drop to a level of 52.0. The PMI had recorded a level of 53.1 in the prior month. On the contrary, the nation's Tankan large manufacturing index climbed more-than-anticipated to a level of 17.0 in 2Q 2017, after recording a level of 12.0 in the prior quarter. Further, the nation's Tankan non-manufacturing index advanced to a level of 23.0 in the second quarter of 2017, meeting market expectations.

The index had registered a level of 20.0 in the previous quarter. The pair is expected to find support at 111.89, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.38.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.76, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.12. The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading On A Weaker Footing, Ahead Of Switzerland’s Real Retail Sales And SVME–PMI Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.35% against the CHF and closed at 0.9588 on Friday.

Macroeconomic data showed that Switzerland's KOF leading indicator climbed more-than-anticipated to a level of 105.5 in June, compared to a revised level of 102.0 in the previous month, while market participants had envisaged for a rise to a level of 102.5.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9594, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the CHF from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9568, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9542. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9609, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9624.

Ahead in the day, traders would focus on Switzerland's real retail sales data for May and SVME–PMI for June.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Canada’s Economy Expanded As Expected In April

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.23% against the CAD and closed at 1.2963 on Friday.

The Canadian Dollar gained ground, after Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in April, at par with market expectations, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate hike later this month. In the prior month, the GDP had recorded a rise of 0.5%. Additionally, on an annual basis, the economy expanded 3.3% in April, advancing at its fastest pace in three years. Markets were anticipating the GDP to climb 3.4%, compared to an advance of 3.2% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2984, with the USD trading 0.16% higher against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2954, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2924. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3007, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3030.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Will PMIs Aid EUR And GBP Rallies?

European equity markets are expected to open a little higher on Monday as traders await a selection of manufacturing PMI reports from across Europe as well as some unemployment data.

Trading volumes are likely to be relatively subdued at the start of the week, as we've already seen evidence of in the Asian session overnight, due to Tuesday's bank holiday in the US and the half day today that precedes it. Of course, this doesn't mean markets will necessarily be flat and the constant stream of data throughout the day could aid this.

We've already had some decent manufacturing numbers out of China and Japan overnight, with the PMIs both beating expectations and the Tankan index rising to 17 – its joint highest reading in almost a decade. The yen hasn't been overly responsive to the data though, with the Bank of Japan remaining among the increasingly few central banks that is unlikely to tighten monetary policy any time soon, although more numbers like this may change that.

Sterling and the euro were two of last week's standout performers as the heads of both central banks delivered quite hawkish speeches – intentional or not – that went against their previously dovish stance. While we've known for some weeks now that policy makers at both the Bank of England and the ECB have become increasingly open to tighter monetary policy, this shift from Mark Carney and Mario Draghi was a sign that even the more dovish policy makers may be reluctantly accepting the possibility that monetary policy will become less accommodative.

With sterling and the euro both consolidating around their recent highs against the dollar, traders may be looking to today's PMI numbers to provide the catalyst for another push higher. We've seen a gradual improvement in sentiment in the euro area over the last year, as the economy finally begins to pick up following years of mediocre growth. The UK PMI has benefited greatly over the last year from the Brexit-related collapse in sterling, as foreign buyers look to take advantage of the much cheaper prices.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2935; (P) 1.2972; (R1) 1.3000; More....

With 1.3045 minor support intact, further decline is still expected in USD/CAD. Sustained trading below 1.2968 cluster support, 61.8% retracement of 1.2460 to 1.3793 at 1.2969 will pave the way to retesting 1.2460 low. On the upside, above 1.3045 will indicate short term bottoming, possibly on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 1.3164/3346 resistance zone first, before staying another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The second leg should have finished at 1.3793. Break of 1.2460 will tend such correction to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7665; (P) 0.7689; (R1) 0.7710; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 0.7711 temporary top. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7534 support holds. Above 0.7711 will target 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we'd be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. On the downside, break of 0.7534 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8096) and above.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1394; (P) 1.1419 (R1) 1.1447; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.1444 temporary top. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1291 support to bring another rise. Break of 1.1444 will extend the rally from 1.0339 low to 1.1615 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1776). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart