Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1315; (P) 1.1352 (R1) 1.1414; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.0339 should target 1.1615 medium term resistance next. On the downside, below 1.1348 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 1.1118 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1776). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2821; (P) 1.2896; (R1) 1.2998; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for 1.3047 as rise from 1.2588 continues. Break of 1.3047 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168. On the downside, below 1.2913 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat, before staging rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. Pull back from 1.3047 has completed after failing to sustain below 1.2614 resistance turned support. It argues that the corrective pattern from 1.1946 is still in progress for another high above 1.3047. But still, outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9568; (P) 0.9607; (R1) 0.9637; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside as fall from 1.0342 continues. Deeper decline would be seen to 0.9548 support and below. We'd start to look for bottoming signal again as it approaches 0.9443 key support level. On the upside, above 0.9646 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But still, break of 0.9770 resistance is ended to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

EUR/GBP - 0.8791

 
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy  :

Exit long entered at 0.8800,

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

 
Although the single currency rose to as high as 0.8882 yesterday, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent sharp retreat suggest a temporary top is possibly formed there and few days of consolidation would be seen with mild downside bias for a test of 0.8763 support, break there would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent upmove to 0.8730-35, however, still reckon downside would be limited to 0.8719 support.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now and look to turn short on recovery as 0.8840-50 should limit upside. Above 0.8882 would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove from 0.8304 low to 0.8900-10, having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon current c leg of larger degree wave b should be limited to 0.8950 and price should falter well below 0.9000 psychological level.

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.

USD/CAD - 1.3038

 
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term down

 
Original strategy       :

Sell at 1.3170, Target: 1.3020, Stop: 1.3230

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop: -

 
New strategy             :

Sell at 1.3150, Target: 1.2980, Stop: 1.3210

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop:-

As the greenback has remained under pressure after recent selloff, adding credence to our bearish count that the fall from 1.3794 top (wave c of larger degree wave b top) is still in progress and may extend further weakness to 1.2969, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2940 and reckon 1.2900 would hold from here,risk from there has increased for a rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell the pair again on recovery as 1.3150-60 should limit upside. Above 1.3190-00 would defer and suggest low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.3215-20 and possibly towards 1.3260-65 but only break there would abort and signal a temporary low is formed instead, then test of resistance at 1.3308 would follow.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

USD/CHF - 0.9589

Original strategy :

Sell at 0.9645, Target: 0.9545, Stop: 0.9680

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 0.9645, Target: 0.9545, Stop: 0.9680

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has recovered after falling to 0.9561, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and recovery to 0.9605-10 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 0.9647 and bring another decline, below said support at 0.9579 would signal the decline from 0.9771 top is still in progress and may extend weakness to 0.9545-50 (2 times extension of 0.9771-0.9676 measuring from 0.9738) but reckon downside would be limited to 0.9525-30 (50% projection of 1.10100-0.9613 measuring from 0.9771) and 0.9500 should hold, price should stay above 0.9470 (61.8% projection), bring rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and we are looking to sell dollar on recovery as resistance at 0.9647 should limit upside. Only above previous support at 0.9676 (now resistance) would defer and suggest a temporary low is formed, risk test of another previous support at 0.9692. 

GBP/USD - 1.2976

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2964

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2895

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2801

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2784

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2895, Target: 1.2995, Stop: 1.2860

Position : - 

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2895, Target: 1.2995, Stop: 1.2860

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has risen again after brief pullback, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.3010-15, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 1.3048 and reckon 1.3075-80 would hold on first testing, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later. 

In view of this, we are looking to buy cable again on pullback as 1.2895-00 should limit downside. Below previous resistance at 1.2861 would defer and suggest a temporary top is formed instead, risk weakness to 1.2830-35 but support at 1.2794 should remain intact.

EUR/USD - 1.1408

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.1320, Target: 1.1420, Stop: 1.1285

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.1320, Target: 1.1420, Stop: 1.1285

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.1292,, suggesting recent rise is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.1455-60 (61.8% projection of 1.1119-1.1389 measuring from 1.1292), then 1.1480, however, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1500, risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy euro on pullback, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1360) would bring correction to 1.1315-20 but said support at 1.1292 should remain intact, bring another rally later. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.96; (P) 112.18; (R1) 112.55; More...

USD/JPY rises to as high as 112.91 in early US session and touching near term channel resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained break of the channel will argue that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 111.82 minor support will turn bias neutral first. If that happens, we'll assess the near term outlook alter.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

USD/JPY - 112.87

Original strategy  :

Buy at 111.90, Target: 112.90, Stop: 111.55

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 112.40, Target: 113.40, Stop: 112.05

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback has continued trading with a firm undertone after this week’s rally on active cross-selling in yen, adding credence to our bullishness and signal the rise from 108.82 low is still in progress, hence further gain to 113.00 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 113.40 and price should falter below 113.75-80, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy dollar on pullback as 112.40 should limit downside. Below 112.10-15 would suggest an intra-day top is formed, bring correction towards 111.83 support.