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Too Soon To Declare Inflation Victory: ECB’s Draghi
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.0866, after the European Central Bank's (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, brushed off calls to scale back its stimulus programme, reiterating that underlying inflation continues to remain subdued and lack a convincing upward trend.
On the macro front, data indicated that the US posted a more-than-expected budget surplus of $182.4 billion in April, compared to a deficit of $176.2 billion in the previous month, while markets were expecting the nation to post a surplus of $179.0 billion. Additionally, the nation's MBA mortgage applications rebounded 2.4% in the week ended 05 May 2017, following a drop of 0.1% in the previous week.
Other economic data revealed that the export price index in the US advanced 0.2% on a monthly basis in April, meeting market expectations and compared to a revised rise of 0.1% in the previous month. Moreover, the nation's import price index registered a rise of 0.5% MoM in April, beating market consensus for an advance of 0.1%. In the prior month, the index had recorded a revised rise of 0.1%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0877, with the EUR trading 0.1% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.0853, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0828. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0900, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0922.
Moving ahead, market participants will look forward to the ECB's economic bulletin as well as the European Commission's economic growth forecast reports, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, in the US, weekly jobless claims data, scheduled to be released later in the day, will be on investors' radar.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Pound Trading On A Stronger Footing, Ahead Of The BoE’s Monetary Policy Decision
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.2929.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2940, with the GBP trading 0.09% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
Overnight data showed that UK's RICS house price balance remained steady at a level of 22.0 in April, compared to market expectations for a drop to a level of 20.0.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2913, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2886. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2977, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3014.
This afternoon will bring the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision, wherein the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. Also, the BoE's quarterly inflation report accompanied with UK's construction output, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance and NIESR GDP estimate data, will keep investors on their toes.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japan’s Trade Surplus Narrowed In March
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.52% against the JPY and closed at 114.31.
On the economic front, Japan's flash leading economic index advanced to a level of 105.5 in March, in line with market expectations, notching its highest level in 21 months. The index had recorded a revised reading of 104.7 in the prior month. Moreover, the nation's flash coincident index dropped more-than-expected to a level of 114.6 in March, after recording a revised reading of 115.2 in the prior month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 114.13, with the USD trading 0.16% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.
Overnight data indicated that Japan's (BOP basis) trade surplus narrowed less-than-expected to a level of ¥865.5 billion in March, while markets expected the nation's trade surplus to narrow down to a level of ¥855.0. In the prior month, the nation registered a surplus of ¥1076.8 billion.
The pair is expected to find support at 113.71, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.28. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.46, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.78.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Swiss Franc Trading Higher, Ahead Of Swiss Inflation Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.24% against the CHF and closed at 1.009.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0083, with the USD trading 0.07% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.0054, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0026. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0103, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0124.
Ahead in the day, traders will focus on Switzerland’s consumer price inflation data for April, slated to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Loonie Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.21% against the CAD and closed at 1.3676.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3726, with the USD trading 0.37% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3666, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3607. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3764, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3803.
Looking ahead, market participants focus on Canada’s new house price index for March, set to be release later in the day.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.27; (P) 147.69; (R1) 148.26; More....
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Whole rise from 122.36 is resuming and break of 140.20 resistance will target 150.42 long term fibonacci level first. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 135.58 at 161.64. On the downside, below 145.64 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, rise from 122.36 bottom should be developing into a medium term move. Break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42 should pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. This will now be the favored case as long as 135.58 support holds.


Daily Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Bullish Trend Channel To Challenge 115 Resistance
Currency pair USD/JPY
The USD/JPY continues higher in an uptrend channel which is indicated by the support (blue) and resistance (red) trend lines. Price is moving towards the Fib targets of wave 5 (brown). The next bullish target would be 115, which is a major round resistance level.

The USD/JPY bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of wave 4 (grey). A break above resistance (red) could see price challenge the Fibonacci targets of waves 5.

Currency pair EUR/USD
The EUR/USD break of the support trend line (dotted blue) could indicate the start of a bearish 1-2 wave count (brown). Once wave 1 is completed, the EUR/USD could setup a bullish retracement that challenges the Fibonacci resistance levels of wave 2.

The EUR/USD is building a bearish channel (green/red) as part of the wave 5 (blue) of wave 1 (brown).

Currency pair GBP/USD
The GBP/USD is trending higher in a bullish channel which is indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines. A bullish break could see price move towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (purple) whereas a bearish break could start a reversal.

The GBP/USD needs to break above the resistance levels (red/orange) before a continuation is likely. A break below support (green) could start a bearish reversal.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8382; (P) 0.8399; (R1) 0.8415; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside as fall from 0.8529 could target 0.8303/8312 support zone. Break there will extend the correction from 0.9304 and target 0.8116 cluster support. On the upside, break of 0.8508 will indicate that rise from 0.8312 is resuming and would target 0.8786 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. In case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) will resume at a later stage to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.


EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.68; (P) 124.00; (R1) 124.51; More...
No change in EUR/JPY's outlook despite diminishing upside moment as seen in 4 hour MACD. Further rally is expected with 122.92 minor support intact. Firm break of 124.08 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rise from 109.20. In that case, EUR/JPY would target 126.09 resistance first. Break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. On the downside, below 122.92 minor support will turn bias to the downside and bring pull back.
In the bigger picture, focus is back on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.


EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4688; (P) 1.4760; (R1) 1.4824; More...
EUR/AUD's consolidation from 1.4909 temporary top is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 1.4442 support and bring another rise. Break of 1.4909 will extend whole rise from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.


