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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2163; (P) 1.2207; (R1) 1.2246; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as decline from 1.2705 continues. Current fall should target a test on 1.1946/86 support zone. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.1946 should have completed with three waves to 1.2705 already. Break of 1.1946 will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. On the upside, break of 1.2346 support turned resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0101; (P) 1.0136; (R1) 1.0165; More.....

USD/CHF's rise from 0.9860 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the upside for a test on 1.0342 key resistance level next. As noted before, based on neutral medium term outlook, we'd be cautious on topping at around 1.0342. On the downside, break of 1.0008, however, will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9860. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9860.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7563; (P) 0.7598; (R1) 0.7620; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.7635 minor resistance intact, outlook is unchanged. That is, rebound from 0.7158 is finished at 0.7740. Below 0.7542 and sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way back to 0.7144/7158 support zone. However, firm break of 0.7635 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 0.7740 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8164) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3350; (P) 1.3393; (R1) 1.3416; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation continues below 1.3436 temporary top. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect downside to be contained well above 1.3209 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.3436 will extend the whole rise from 1.2968 and target 1.3598 high. Break there will resume the medium term rally from 1.2460 to next fibonacci level at 1.3838.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.64; (P) 139.14; (R1) 139.55; More...

GBP/JPY remains bounded in range of 138.53/142.79. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. We're treating price actions from 148.42 as a corrective pattern. Break of 138.53 support will bring deeper decline to 136.44 support and possibly below. However, we'd expect strong support at 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 142.79 will turn bias back to the upside for 144.77 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.30; (P) 120.50; (R1) 120.63; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral for consolidation below 121.18 temporary top. We're holding on to the view that corrective fall from 124.08 has completed at 118.23 already, after defending 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). Decisive break of 121.32 resistance should confirm this case and target 124.08 high next. However, break of 119.45 support should invalidate this bullish view and would likely extend the fall from 124.08 through 118.23.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. Strong rebound from 118.45 resistance turned support suggests that it's still in progress. Break of 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance level. We'd be cautious on strong resistance there to limit upside. However, sustained break there will be a strong sign of medium term momentum and could target 141.04 resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0690; (P) 1.0718; (R1) 1.0733; More...

With 1.0683 minor support intact, further rise is expected in EUR/CHF. As noted before, a short term bottom is likely in place at 1.0629 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Current development raised the chance of larger trend reversal after defending 1.0620 key support level. Decisive break of 1.0749 should affirm this bullish case and target 1.0897. On the downside, though, below 1.0683 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0629 instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. There is no confirmation of completion yet. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. However, strong rebound from 1.0620 and break of 1.0897 resistance will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3878; (P) 1.3921; (R1) 1.3966; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment for consolidation below 1.4014 temporary top. At this point, we're still preferring the case of short term bottoming at 1.3624, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Hence, another rise is expected and above 1.4014 will target 1.4289 resistance. Break there will confirm trend reversal. However, below 1.3835 minor support will dampen our bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3624 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8636; (P) 0.8660; (R1) 0.8681; More...

EUR/GBP lost some upside momentum after hitting 0.8682. But further rise is still expected as long as 0.8546 support stays intact. As noted before, rise from 0.8402 is viewed as the third leg of the corrective price actions from 0.8303.Such rally would target 0.8851 resistance and above. However, whole price actions from 0.8303 are viewed as the second leg of the correction from 0.9304. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.8303 to 0.8851 from 0.8402 at 0.8950 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.8546 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8402 support. instead

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Sterling weakens broadly yesterday and is trading as the second weakest major currency for the week at the moment. The House of Lords in US passed an amended bill on Brexit yesterday after having the highest turnout since 1831. The vote was passed by 366 to 268 to add addition condition to the so called "European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill". That demands a guarantee of "meaningful vote" by the Parliament on the outcome of Brexit talks. And it's seen by analysts as securing veto power on any final agreements. The bill will now return to the House of Commons for deciding whether to accept the Lord's amendments. The debate could probably held on next Monday.

The UK Brexit Secretary David Davis described the result of the vote as "disappointing". And he criticized that "it is clear that some in the Lords would seek to frustrate that process, and it is the government's intention to ensure that does not happen." Davis pledged to "overturn these amendments in the House of Commons." Brexit minister for the Lords George Bridges also said in his final plea before the vote that "this amendment simply makes the negotiations much harder from day one for the prime minister as it increases the incentive for the European Union to offer nothing but a bad deal."

UK Chancellor Exchequer to deliver budget statement

Sterling traders are also getting cautious ahead of Chancellor of Exchequer Paul Hammond's first full budget statement today. The statement comes at the time just weeks before prime minister May's trigger of Article 50 for Brexit negotiation. And there are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the situation. The focus will be on what he would do to shield the UK economy from the impact of Brexit. Hammond has already revealed that he plans to build up GBP 60b reserve to deal with Brexit related uncertainties.

Japan Q4 GDP revised up, but missed expectation

The Japanese yen strengthens today, in particular against European majors, as Nikkei continues its slump. Q4 GDP growth was finalized at 0.3% qoq, revised up from 0.2% qoq but missed expectation of 0.4% qoq. GDP deflator was finalized at -0.1% qoq, unrevised. Current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1.26T in January, below expectation of JPY 1.46T. Bank lending grew 2.8% yoy in February. Also from Asian session, New Zealand manufacturing activity rose 0.8% in Q4.

Looking ahead...

German industrial production and Swiss CPI will be featured in European session. Main focus could be on US ADP employment report. US will also release non-farm productivity revision. Canada will release housing starts, labor productivity and building permits.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8636; (P) 0.8660; (R1) 0.8681; More...

EUR/GBP lost some upside momentum after hitting 0.8682. But further rise is still expected as long as 0.8546 support stays intact. As noted before, rise from 0.8402 is viewed as the third leg of the corrective price actions from 0.8303.Such rally would target 0.8851 resistance and above. However, whole price actions from 0.8303 are viewed as the second leg of the correction from 0.9304. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 100% projection of 0.8303 to 0.8851 from 0.8402 at 0.8950 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.8546 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8402 support. instead

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Economic Indicators Update