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AUDJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• AUDJPY reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 111.00

AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between support level 109.00, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.

The upward reversal from the support level 109.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, highlighted below.

Given the strong daily uptrend, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 111.00.

CHFJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• CHFJPY reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 202.00

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support area located between support level 198.00 (former resistance from December, which has been reversing the pair for the last 3 months), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.

The upward reversal from the support level 109.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

Given the prevailing daily uptrend, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 202.00 (top of earlier wave B).

WTI Crude Oil: ⬆️ Buy

• WTI Crude Oil broke round resistance level 100.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 113.00

WTI Crude Oil recently broke above the round resistance level 100.00, which reversed the price multiple times in March as can be seen below

The breakout of the resistance level 100.00 continues the active short-term impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from last month.

Given the strong daily uptrend, WTI Crude Oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 113.00 (which stopped the previous sharp impulse wave (3)).

GBP/USD stabilised around 1.3227 on Friday following a sharp decline the previous day. Rising geopolitical tensions have weighed on the pound following fresh statements from US President Donald Trump. Increased military rhetoric towards Iran and the lack of clarity regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a jump in oil prices and heightened demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Additional pressure on the pound stems from the UK's heavy reliance on energy imports and concerns about public finances. Yields on British government bonds have risen in tandem with energy prices, adding further strain on the currency.

Overall, market dynamics are unfolding in accordance with a classic risk-off scenario. Rising oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks are weighing on most assets, while the US dollar remains the key safe-haven currency.

Sterling had already fallen approximately 1.9% against the dollar in March amid fears of an energy shock.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around the 1.3250 level, currently extending down to 1.3180. A short-term move towards 1.3250 is expected. Following the completion of this correction, a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would open the way for a continuation move to 1.3300, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3100. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3254. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3100. Should this level be breached, further downside potential towards 1.3050 would emerge. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range may trigger a rebound to 1.3300. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains under sustained pressure as President Trump's escalated military rhetoric towards Iran and the unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz drive oil prices higher, bolstering safe-haven demand for the US dollar. The UK's energy import dependence and fragile public finances leave sterling particularly vulnerable in this risk-off environment. Having already lost nearly 2% in March, the pound faces continued headwinds, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential. Near-term stabilisation is possible, but any sustained recovery would likely require a tangible de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a shift in broader risk sentiment.

• Politics explains the dollar’s sluggish rise amid rising oil prices.
• USDJPY bulls have grown immune to verbal intervention.

Brent saw a sharp rally amid renewed threats from Donald Trump, but EURUSD stabilised after a decline amid expectations for the US employment report. Bloomberg experts forecast a return to growth in non-farm payrolls in March following one of the sharpest declines in February. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.4%.

Stabilisation of the labour market will allow the Fed to focus on consumer prices. According to John Williams, President of the New York Fed, the risks to employment and inflation are balanced, allowing rates to be kept at current levels. A strengthening labour market will allow the FOMC to begin discussing a rate hike, which is good news for the dollar.

Strong oil prices are helping the dollar rise, but it is clearly lagging behind the rally in Brent and WTI. One reason is the high premiums for political uncertainty in the US, which are undermining confidence in the US currency and government bonds.

Another factor holding back the bears on EURUSD is the still-lingering hope for a swift end to the conflict in the Middle East. Investors fear missing out on a post-war rally, similar to the surge in the S&P 500 and other risk assets following Liberation Day. If these illusions fade and markets come to believe that the war will drag on for months, the US dollar will strengthen further against major global currencies.

This includes the yen, which has developed immunity to verbal interventions. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted that Donald Trump’s remarks had a significant impact on financial markets. Speculative volatility is rising in both the forex market and oil futures. Her department is ready to take action on all fronts. To officials’ disappointment, such rhetoric has not halted the rise of USDJPY.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has remained close to $2.30T for the second day running, with a wide range of performance among coins: from losers such as Uniswap (−2.7%), Immutable (−2.4%) and BNB (−0.7%) to the leaders Algorand (+20%), IOTA (+6.9%) and Cosmos (+5.3%). Meanwhile, the top five altcoins and BTC have changed in price by less than 1% over the last day.

Bitcoin, at $66.5K, remains near the lower boundary of the range seen since early March, adding around $1K to Thursday’s intraday lows. With US markets closed, cryptocurrencies lack the key benchmark provided by traditional markets amid heightened geopolitical jitters. In such conditions, retail investors are reluctant to take active steps, as has been clear over the past month. We continue to monitor the $66–69K range, a breakout from which would mark the end of consolidation and set the direction for further movement.

Solana has been in a downtrend for over two weeks, despite the market’s overall relative stability. As a result, the fifth-largest coin by market capitalisation (excluding stablecoins) is trading near $80, close to its February lows. It has not traded consistently below these levels since the end of 2023, having lost 70% from its peak at the start of 2025.

News Background

Large holders have shifted from accumulating Bitcoin to selling, and this trend is long-term, according to CryptoQuant. Addresses holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC have reduced their holdings by 188,000 BTC over the past year.

At the same time, demand for Bitcoin in the US is falling. The Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative: US investors are no longer driving BTC growth through purchases.

The market is also losing corporate support. Over the past few months, at least seven corporate holders have reduced their reserves by ~22,000 BTC.

Over 40% of all bitcoins were purchased above $80K — this is one of the main obstacles to the growth of the leading cryptocurrency, according to Glassnode. Some of these 8.4 million BTC may be sold by investors either during an upward rebound to recoup some of their money or during a further decline.

Japan’s Metaplanet has increased its holdings to 40,177 BTC at an average purchase price of $104,106, becoming the third-largest Bitcoin treasury by cryptocurrency volume. In the first quarter, Metaplanet acquired 5,075 BTC for $405.5 million.

The US Department of the Treasury has begun implementing the GENIUS Act, passed in 2025. The regulator has issued its first notice and called on market participants to submit comments within 60 days.

• USD/CAD oscillates near the 1.3890-1.3930 resistance zone, tracking three‑month highs.
• Retraces 61.8% of the pullback from multi‑year highs.
• RSI and stochastics signal stalled upside momentum.

USD/CAD has been oscillating within the 1.3890-1.3930 resistance territory since the beginning of the week, repeatedly testing the upper boundary after a brief break to the three‑month and year-to-date high of 1.3965 on Tuesday.

If the pair manages to break decisively above this strong resistance zone – and further above the ytd peak, which also coincides with a major December support region – it would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend that has been forming higher lows since the January 30 bottom. The next resistance hurdle sits at the December 2 swing high near 1.4015, before the pair potentially heads toward the multi‑year peak near 1.4140.

That said, the momentum indicators show the upside stalling. The MACD remains in positive territory, but the RSI has failed to firmly enter overbought territory. Further, the stochastics are also ticking lower from overbought levels, pointing to fading momentum.

A decisive dip below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January pullback at 1.3890 could be followed by a break under the 200‑day simple moving average (SMA) near the 1.3800 psychological level, shifting the outlook to bearish. This would be reinforced by subsequent breaches of the upward‑sloping 20‑ and 50‑day SMAs at 1.3770 and 1.3690, respectively.

Summing up, USD/CAD is attempting to clear a key resistance zone, and a confirmed break above it would signal a resumption of the broader upside trend. However, another rejection from this region would likely keep the pair in consolidation, as long as price action remains supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

The DAX Index experienced a notable correction from the July 11, 2025 high, unfolding in a complex expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. From that peak, wave A concluded at 22,943.06, followed by a rally in wave B that terminated at 25,507.79. The index then reversed lower into wave C, which subdivided into a clear five-wave impulse. Specifically, wave ((i)) ended at 24,349.54, wave ((ii)) retraced to 25,405.97, and wave ((iii)) declined to 22,927.55. A modest recovery in wave ((iv)) reached 24,061.15, before the final wave ((v)) dropped to 21,886.1. This completed wave C of (2) at a higher degree, marking the end of the corrective phase.

From that low, the index has turned higher in wave (3). However, confirmation of a sustained bullish cycle requires a break above the prior peak of wave B at 25,507.79. Without this, the risk of a double correction remains. From wave (2), wave (i) advanced to 23,178.7, while wave (ii) pulled back to 22,209.45. The subsequent rally in wave (iii) reached 23,377.65, followed by a pullback in wave (iv) to 22,677.92. Another leg higher is anticipated to complete wave (v) of ((i)). Afterward, the index should undergo a corrective phase in wave ((ii)), addressing the cycle from the March 23, 2026 low, before resuming its upward trajectory.

In the near term, as long as the pivot at 21,886.1 remains intact, dips are expected to attract buyers. These retracements are likely to unfold in 3, 7, or 11 swings, supporting further upside potential. This structure underscores the importance of maintaining the key pivot while awaiting confirmation through a decisive break above 25,507.79

DAX 45-Minute Elliott Wave Chart

DAX Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLap3ZJk8eM

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY remained supported above the 158.00 pivot level.
• A bullish trend line is forming with support at 158.50 on the 4-hour chart.
• Bitcoin trimmed gains and traded below the $67,500 support.
• WTI Crude Oil prices again rallied and broke the $105 resistance.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar formed a base above 158.20 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a fresh increase above 158.80 and 159.20.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.46 swing high to the 158.27 low. The pair is now well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.46 swing high to the 158.27 low at 159.95.

The first major resistance sits at 160.20. The main resistance could be 160.50. A close above 160.50 could open the doors for gains above 161.20. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 162.00.

Immediate support is seen near 159.10. The first key support sits at 158.50. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 158.50. A close below 158.50 might call for heavy losses. In the stated case, it could even revisit 157.50 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

Looking at Oil, the price started a fresh surge, and the bulls were able to pump the price above the $105 barrier.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 – Forecast 60K, versus -92K previous.
• US Unemployment Rate for March 2026 - Forecast 4.4%, versus 4.4% previous.

Canadian Highlights

• The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to dominate the headlines, pushing oil prices closer to recent highs.
• Monthly GDP and trade data shows Canada’s economy started the year on a steadier footing.
• The Bank of Canada maintained its dovish tone in its Summary of Deliberations, but acknowledged the two-sided risks on growth and inflation stemming from the war.

U.S. Highlights

• President Trump’s speech on Wednesday dashed hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict in Iran, sending crude oil prices higher.
• Retail sales rebounded in February after two months of stagnation. Meanwhile, JOLTS data indicated that the labor market remained in a low-hire, low-fire mode during February.
• Unless March payroll figures surprise meaningfully on the downside tomorrow, this week’s data supports the Federal Reserve’s current cautious, wait-and-see stance.

Canada – Barreling Ahead

WTI prices surged another 20% this week to over $110/bbl amid fading hopes for a quick resolution to the U.S.-Iran war. In his speech last night, President Trump’s hawkish remarks did little to ease markets, providing no timeline for a conflict resolution and warning of a possible escalation in coming weeks. Iran also doubled down on comments that it denies seeking a ceasefire, while insisting the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and under its control. Despite the increase in oil prices, the Canadian dollar weakened by 0.7% to 71.9 cents U.S., as safe-haven flows and strong domestic data south of the border put a bid under the U.S. Dollar. Elsewhere, Canadian yields eased slightly this week as hawkish bets for Bank of Canada rate hikes later this year were pared back slightly.

Canadian data this week gave a clearer picture of economic momentum prior to oil price shock. Industry-level GDP for the month of January showed Canada’s economy started the year on a firmer footing than many feared amid lacklustre Q4-2025 results. The reading was still on the softer side, growing by a modest 0.1% month-on-month (m/m), but it outpaced both Statistics Canada and market expectations for no growth. What’s more, early signs are pointing to an acceleration of 0.2% m/m real GDP growth in February, putting quarterly growth on track achieve trend-like results (Chart 1). Though positive on the margin, these readings may hold slightly less weight coming before the oil price shock impacted the economy.

February’s international merchandise trade data also gave us another look at Q1 growth conditions. It was a sturdy month, as both exports and imports sharply reversed course from last month’s sagging activity (Chart 2). Gains on both sides of the ledger were broad-based as most subsectors booked a gain, though a bounce-back in auto-sector activity did a lot of the heavy lifting. The recent meteoric rise in oil prices will start to show up in the March data, boosting nominal trade momentum into the second quarter, which should help narrow Canada’s trade deficit. Elsewhere in trade, Canadian representatives are slowly re-engaging U.S. counterparts after a quiet few months, with hopes of smooth negotiations ahead of the July 1st CUSMA review.

The ongoing energy price shock and trade risks are still clouding the near-term outlook. In their Summary of Deliberations released this week, Bank of Canada Governing Council members recognized these challenges, but agreed to “look through” the spike in oil-driven inflation spike, opting instead of a more data-driven approach to policy setting. For now, the Bank maintains its dovish stance from the March policy meeting, given Canada’s economy remains sub par, with recent softness in core inflation and growth risks that tilt toward the downside. We expect the BoC to remain on the sidelines at their April 29th meeting, but will plan to monitor this shock carefully – weighing downside risks to growth against the upside inflationary impacts – and is prepared to act if circumstances change.

U.S. – Oil Prices: To the Moon and… (May Be) Back

Financial markets were volatile this week amid uncertainty on the duration of the Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 traded lower initially but rebounded mid-week on signs of de-escalation in the U.S.–Iran conflict. Treasury yields and crude prices also eased on the news, though the reprieve was brief. Like Artemis II, Trump’s speech on Wednesday night sent oil prices to the moon again on Thursday morning. While Trump reaffirmed a 2–3 week timeline for ending U.S. military involvement, he dashed hopes for a peace deal, promising to hit Iran “extremely hard”, and said that re-opening the Strait of Hormuz was not a U.S. goal.

Even if the U.S. reduces its military attacks soon, oil prices could stay high: ramping up production and repairing infrastructure takes time, and supply risks persist if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or below capacity. Inflationary risks are tilted upward even as our latest report notes the latest oil shock is unlike the one in 2022 in some ways. This shock is more concentrated in oil, with natural gas and agricultural commodity prices contained.

The economic backdrop is also different. Supply chains weren’t strained before the latest price shock, the labor market has cooled, and the economy isn’t firing on all cylinders. Still, with gas prices rising to $4/gallon this week, and signs that the conflict is adding pressure to other commodities, higher inflation is in the cards (Chart 1). This week’s data showed households’ inflation expectations jumped in March.

This is the fourth price shock to hit households in five years, arriving amid a slowing labor market. JOLTS data showed hiring declined in February, while job openings and layoffs were steady but low, suggesting the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire mode. Markets expect payrolls to rise by 65k in March, similar to the ADP print, and a partial rebound after an unexpected loss of 92k jobs in February. While not yet signaling a sharp deterioration, a cooling labor market leaves households more exposed to negative shocks.

Consumer spending has stayed relatively resilient, but households are inflation-weary and showed caution even before the latest surge at the pump. Retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in February after two months of stagnation (Chart 2). Adjusted for inflation, sales volumes are up only 1% from a year ago. Larger tax refunds may help mitigate higher gas prices, but slower hiring and equities selloff could still weigh on consumption.

With stagflation fears surfacing, the Fed faces a tough balancing act. So far, it seems content to stay on hold. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Powell said oil shocks are typically short-lived and the Fed can remain patient; however, he noted the Fed would act if inflation expectations shift. NY Fed President Williams said, “the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to balance risks to our maximum employment and price stability goals.” However, if you chase two rabbits, you likely won’t catch either. Let’s hope the Fed doesn’t find itself in that spot.