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Bitcoin has found surprising stability in an environment that has been anything but supportive. In March, as the Iran War drove a sharp rally in oil prices and intensified inflation risks, most risk assets struggled under tightening financial conditions. Yet Bitcoin held steady in range above 60k, signaling that a structural “demand floor” has already taken shape.

That floor appears to have formed around the 60k region, underpinned by a decisive shift in flows. March recorded USD 1.32 billion in ETF-driven inflows, snapping a four-month streak of withdrawals. Institutional players effectively treated the war-driven dip as a strategic accumulation opportunity, stepping in aggressively at lower levels.

At the same time, the supply side showed clear signs of fatigue. The market had already absorbed two major waves of liquidation—from 126k (Oct) to 80k (Nov), and then from 98k (Jan) to 60k (Feb). This sequence points to broad seller exhaustion, with weak hands largely flushed out and downside momentum losing traction.

Technically, in the near term, the 70k level stands as the key breakout trigger. A firm move above this psychological level, particularly alongside a sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 70,959) would signal that the pattern from 59,866 low is extending with another another upleg. Such a development would open the path toward 76k resistance and potentially extend further.

However, the structure of the pattern so far suggests that it’s merely a consolidation phase within the larger down trend from 126,289. Hence, upside should be constrained by a clearly defined ceiling.

The zone between the 50% retracement of 97,922 to 59,866 at 78,894 and the 80,492 support-turned-resistance marks a significant institutional distribution zone. This area aligns closely with the 80k level, forming a well-defined “supply wall” where large-scale profit-taking is likely to emerge.

The macro backdrop reinforces this floor vs ceiling contrast. While ETF flows and positioning support the downside, Bitcoin continues to face non-yielding asset pressure amid higher-for-longer Fed expectations. Rising real yields and the fading prospect of rate cuts limit the scope for sustained upside, even as demand stabilizes.

In this context, Bitcoin’s current setup reflects balance rather than breakout. A durable floor has been established near 60k, but a decisive shift in macro conditions would be needed to clear the 80k ceiling. Until then, price action is likely to remain defined by range dynamics, with rallies capped and dips supported.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh decline after it faced rejection near 1.1625.
• A major contracting triangle is forming with support at 1.1450 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is moving lower and might struggle to stay above 1.3120.
• WTI Crude Oil prices show bullish signs above the $105 resistance.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro struggled to stay above 1.1600 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1565 support.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1443 swing low to the 1.1627 high. The pair also settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

Immediate support is seen near 1.1485 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1443 swing low to the 1.1627 high.

The first key support sits at 1.1450. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with support at 1.1450. A close below 1.1450 might call for heavy losses. In the stated case, it could even revisit 1.1365.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.1550 zone. The first major resistance sits at 1.1580. The main resistance could be 1.1620. A close above 1.1620 could open the doors for gains above 1.1650. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1750.

Looking at Oil, the price started a steady increase, and the bulls were able to pump the price above the $115 level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US ISM Services Index for March 2026 – Forecast 55.0, versus 56.1 previous.

• Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.
• Markets conclude a very volatile week, with hopes for peace going back and forth and sentiment losing its head.
• Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.

Week in review – A sentiment rollercoaster as Markets price in peak conflict

What a rollercoaster week. It began with soaring optimism and ended with a brutal geopolitical reality check, capped off by a blockbuster jobs report dropped into an empty market.

The Early-Week Melt-Up

As March closed and April began, risk assets caught a massive bid. Investors rushed to buy the dip amid widespread speculation that the US-Iran war was nearing a diplomatic resolution.

Stocks exploded higher, the US Dollar formed a double top (which then failed), and oil prices corrected sharply as the war premium appeared to evaporate.

The April Fool’s Fakeout

Unfortunately, this optimism turned out to be a cruel April Fool's fakeout. By Thursday, the narrative had violently reversed. A hawkish White House address from President Trump completely derailed hopes for peace, reawakening fears of a prolonged conflict and potential ground operations.

Energy markets took the brunt of the panic.

WTI Crude exploded by 14% overnight, flashing up to $114 per barrel before settling back above $110.

The stock market faced severe intraday chaos, gapping significantly lower at the open as algorithms dumped risk, though frantic short-covering later helped major benchmarks finish relatively unchanged. Precious metals also experienced wild volatility as traders scrambled to re-price the escalating conflict.

WTI 4H Chart – April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The week concluded with a curveball, and luckily no one is there to trade it.

The March Non-Farm Payrolls report, released on Good Friday, showed the labor market roaring back to life.

Unemployment dropped to 4.3%, private payrolls surged by an unexpected 186K, and wage growth cooled to +0.2% month-over-month. The report cements the Federal Reserve’s holding stance – Don't expect to see cuts anytime soon.

Stock Markets are closed for the holiday and futures stuck in a highly illiquid, abbreviated session leaving Wall Street was left paralyzed.

Traders are now forced to sit on their hands over a long weekend, balancing robust domestic economic data against the looming threat of military escalation in the Middle East – Watching the highlights of this weekend's action will be mandatory to understand the action next week.

Expect fierce repositioning and wild gaps when the bell finally rings on Monday morning – But real volumes will only return on Tuesday (as the largest players are off for the Easter long-weekend.

Weekly Performance across Asset Classes

Weekly Asset Performance – April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView

This week's action was nothing short of chaotic, with up-and-down swings across virtually all asset classes, leaving a sense of range-bound trajectories as long as clarity doesn't return.

This could replace the prior large downtrends in Metals and Stocks, contingent on the situation not worsening or suddenly improving.

WTI remains the asset to watch to assess the general Market mood – one thing to keep in mind is that there has been some progress this week, but more will be needed for the positive mood to remain.

The Week Ahead – Major Inflation data coming up for the US and EU

Traders will have to get ready for an intense week, with not only macroeconomic data which should start to reflect the first impacts of the war, but also a more erratic Market behavior regarding the war, which seems to be reaching its most confusing stage.

Asia Pacific Markets – RBNZ Rate Decision

Next week's RBNZ Decision meeting will be the main event for APAC Markets, but it could also largely be a non-event, currently priced in at 90% for no change (the other 10% is a small premium for a hike).

Communications for upcoming rate hikes will be closely watched, so keep that in mind as it may reshape the path for the NZD.

For the rest, a few mid-tier releases for Australia and Japan including PMIs for the former, and trade data for the latter.

The Chinese Inflation report could also be a mover for the AUD – with inflation recently bouncing higher, so policymakers will want to see this continue.

Europe and UK Markets – German CPI and Eurozone PPI

This week was big for UK data but next week will be absent of any catalyst for the GBP.

The Euro will however be at the center stage, with the first inflation releases that should contain influences from War with Retail Sales and PPI for the Eurozone on Wednesday, and the German CPI on Friday.

Any large beat in inflation could warrant a safety hike from the ECB at the next meeting! (Currently priced at about 60%).

North American Markets – A heavy week

The US will grab the spotlight again, with high-tier releases spanning across the entire coming week.

Monday will welcome the ISM Services PMI, an interesting release as Services have started to cool down from ever-higher levels (cooler data there will be a sign of an economic turn).

The Minutes from the Mid-March FOMC meeting will also be released on Wednesday (and they have finally become a bit more interesting; look for communications to see what the Fed is watching for decision-making).

Thursday will see the release of Core PCE, expected at 3% once again and hopefully not much higher. If it combines with another huge beat in CPI on Friday (headline expected at 0.9% !!! – Huge impact from rises in Oil prices), hikes could really be back on the table, and that would not be good news for the US Market.

Participants will also be looking closely at the Core release to see how Oil inflation spreads to other products.

For Canada, Tuesday will see the release of the Ivey PMI data (a mover for the Loonie) and the CA Employment report for Friday (that goes without saying).

Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those regarding a potential ground invasion, as they will be the final piece of the puzzle for Market sentiment and Oil prices.

Next Week's High Tier Economic Events

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Safe Trades and enjoy your long weekend! Happy Easter!

Markets enter the week facing a critical transition—from pricing geopolitical risk to measuring its economic impact—with US CPI set to test the Federal Reserve’s policy path. With Brent crude holding above $100 through most of March following escalation in Iran conflict, upcoming data will act as a litmus test for second-round inflation effects.

The core question is no longer whether energy prices are rising, but whether those costs are feeding into broader prices, wages, and policy expectations, which is broadening enough to force a Fed rate hike later in the year.

This marks a shift from “speculation” to “quantification”. Markets have already repriced stagflation risk, but have yet to fully price a sustained inflation regime driven by supply disruption. This week’s releases will determine whether that repricing accelerates—or stalls.

The High-Stakes Events:

US CPI and ISM: From Energy Shock to Core Inflation

In the US, focus centers on CPI on Friday, alongside ISM Services PMI and FOMC minutes earlier in the week. CPI is the decisive event. Markets will look beyond headline inflation to core and services components, where evidence of pass-through from energy costs would confirm that inflation is broadening. A simultaneous pickup in both would signal that transport and input cost pressures are feeding into final consumer prices—solidifying the stagflation narrative and effectively removing near-term Fed easing from the table.

ISM Services PMI will offer an earlier read on inflation dynamics. The Prices Paid sub-index will be key for gauging cost pressures, while new orders will indicate whether demand is holding up or beginning to crack under rising prices. Together, these components will provide the more signals of whether the economy is absorbing or resisting the energy shock.

FOMC Minutes vs CPI: Sentiment vs Reality

FOMC minutes on Wednesday come before CPI, creating a crucial sequencing dynamic. The minutes reflect policymakers’ thinking at the March 17–18 meeting—effectively a snapshot of early reactions to the oil shock. While the policy statement at that time was a "wait and see," the minutes will reveal the intensity of the internal debate regarding the Iran War and the subsequent oil shock.

• The Dovish View: Look for phrases like "participants noted the tendency to look through supply-side shocks" or "energy price increases were viewed as likely to be transitory." This would signal that the Fed is staying the course on eventual rate cuts.
• The Hawkish Shift: Watch for concerns about "second-round effects" or "inflation expectations becoming unanchored." If officials express worry that high energy prices are bleeding into services and wages, it suggests they may hold rates steady for the rest of 2026—or even discuss hikes.

If the minutes show rising concern on inflation, and CPI then confirms a broad-based pickup, markets could be forced into an aggressive repricing of the Fed path. In that scenario, higher-for-longer expectations would be reinforced sharply, potentially driving a strong Dollar rally alongside renewed upward pressure on yields.

Canada Jobs: Energy Boom or Growth Drag?

Canada’s employment report on Friday will test whether elevated energy prices are supporting or undermining the domestic economy. After recent job losses earlier in 2026, the key question is whether the oil-driven boost is feeding into hiring, particularly in resource sectors.

However, composition matters as much as the headline. Gains concentrated in energy extraction alongside losses in manufacturing would reinforce the Bank of Canada’s policy dilemma—inflation lifted by energy, but growth constrained elsewhere. This keeps the BoC sidelined, with policy likely on hold unless a broad-based labor market recovery emerges.

The Silient Mover:

RBNZ Decision: Hawkish Hold Signals Shift in Risk

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, but the tone will be closely watched. Recent guidance from Governor Anna Breman suggests a shift toward a hawkish pause, acknowledging that while initial energy shocks can be overlooked, second-round effects cannot.

Particularly important is the rise in inflation expectations toward 4.1% for mid-2026, signaling early signs of de-anchoring. This has already prompted markets to price in the possibility of rate hikes later in the year, even as near-term growth remains soft.

Highlights for the week:

Monday, Apr 6, 2026

Tuesday, Apr 7, 2026

Wednesday, Apr 8, 2026

Thursday, Apr 9, 2026

Friday, Apr 10, 2026

The March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report just dropped into a ghost town but came with a major surprise: +178K vs 60K expectations.

This completely erases the prior month's -92K release (which did get revised down to -133K – But even this got overshaded by today's release

This led to a drop in the Unemployment rate to 4.3% (from 4.4%) with the unrounded number at 4.256%

With major US equity and commodity markets fully closed for Good Friday, only Futures are opened and they are quite stuck, in an abbreviated holiday session (Open until 13:30 ET), Wall Street is left holding a massive data release with almost nowhere to trade it.

US Stock Futures and Bonds still sold off as the data pushes back against Cuts even further, as if they were even part of the discussion – The US Dollar is up slightly but its change is measly.

As the economy really seems to be picking up again, traders will have to remain careful on the possible pricing for hikes – That will have to be seen again in the next few months, as the data will progressively reflect higher energy costs.

(Gas prices have been out of this world to be fair – This will weigh on activity).

Stock Futures are selling off

Dow Jones 1H Chart. April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Some algos lost their minds at the release but this did not last long – Stocks remain below their bearish trendline.

Bonds follow suit

Bonds 1H Chart. April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Happy Holidays and enjoy the long weekend!

Things could get very wild at the Monday re-open but could only really pick up on Tuesday, with the heaviest participants only coming back at that time

The Middle East conflict is weighing on gold prices amid expectations that central banks will raise interest rates to address rising inflation driven by oil prices. This seems like a knee-jerk reaction, as this is precisely how central banks acted in 2022. Moreover, it is widely acknowledged that this was a belated response. Another factor working against gold is the reduction in gold purchases, as well as the sale of gold from reserves to support national currencies, as India and Turkey have been doing recently. It is possible that many others are doing the same, but we are not yet aware.

This is a rather short-sighted approach, as current fuel prices are a shock to consumers, and this will be followed by a shock to the economy, requiring monetary policy to be eased, not tightened. However, we first need to hear that central banks share this view; for now, they remain focused on inflation.

Among the medium-term price targets, $4,200 remains significant. A fall in the price of gold to this level would still be within the uptrend. A break below this level would signal a reversal of the three-year uptrend. A rebound from this level would keep alive the hope that the bullish trend in gold is not yet over.

From a technical analysis perspective, last week, gold may have found support at the 200-day MA during its decline to $4,100. Strong buying continued right up until Thursday morning, when the price touched $4,800. The subsequent dip following Trump’s hawkish rhetoric did not trigger a fresh wave of selling in gold, keeping hopes alive for a return to the bullish trend.

It is quite possible that gold will test the 50-day MA near $5,000 once again next week, finally shaking off oversold conditions. This suggests a positive outlook for next week, but we remain cautiously pessimistic over the longer term, anticipating a decline to $4,200 in the medium term and a low of $3,300 for the bearish cycle we are already in.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178k in March, well ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a gain of 65k. Revisions to the two prior months subtracted a total of 7k from the previously reported figures.

• Smoothing through the volatility, nonfarm payrolls averaged 68k per-month over the last three months or slightly above the breakeven rate of 30k-50k.

Private payrolls rose by an impressive 186k – its strongest monthly gain since December 2024 – following a decline of 129k in February. The bulk of the gains were concentrated in health care & social assistance (+89.9k), construction (+26k) and transportation & warehousing (+21K), though a number of other industries also added jobs on the month. Meanwhile, the federal government shed 18k jobs.

In the household survey, the labor force plummeted (-396k) by considerably more than civilian employment (-64k), pushing the unemployment rate down a tick to 4.3%. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.9% (from 62.0% the month prior), which is its lowest level since late-2021.

Average hourly earnings (AHE) rose 0.2% month-on-month (m/m), or roughly half the gain seen in February. On a twelve-month basis, AHE ticked down to 3.5% (from 3.8%).

Key Implications

Payrolls surprised to the upside in March, handily beating expectations but also more than reversing February's pullback which was impacted by strike and weather-related effects. Encouragingly, the breadth of hiring widened to its highest level since December 2023, suggesting it wasn't only a reversal of February effects driving last month's gains.

This morning's report will come as welcome news for policymakers as it helps to assuage any fear that may have arisen following February's weak employment report. Stability in the labor market should allow policymakers to sit tight and better assess the economic impacts stemming from higher oil prices over the coming months. While we still see a path for a few more rate cuts later this year, the window could be narrowing, especially if March's strength in the labor market were to persist and oil prices were to remain elevated.

US labor market showed strong resilience in March, with non-farm payrolls rising 178k, far above expectations of 48k. The solid gain more than offset the downward revision in February, which was revised from -92k to -133k, while January’s figure was revised higher from 126k to 160k, reinforcing a volatile hiring trend.

The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, beating expectations, although the participation rate edged lower from 62.0% to 61.9%, suggesting part of the decline was driven by a smaller labor force.

However, wage dynamics were softer than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% mom, below the 0.3% forecast, with annual growth at 3.5% yoy.

Full US non-farm payroll release here.