Sample Category Title

United States:

• Personal Income & Spending (Thursday), Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Friday)

G10 Economies:

• Canada Labor Force Survey (Friday)

Emerging Markets:

• Reserve Bank of India (Wednesday), Mexico CPI (Thursday), Brazil CPI (Friday)

U.S. Week Ahead

Personal Income & Spending • Thursday

U.S. economic data remain somewhat stale due to the lingering effects of last year’s prolonged federal government shutdown. The upcoming Personal Income & Spending report is a case in point, with next week’s release covering February activity—already about a month old. That lag feels more consequential amid ongoing tensions with Iran. High‑frequency credit‑card data through March suggest consumers remain resilient for now, but the risk of a slowdown grows the longer uncertainty persists, particularly if gasoline prices continue to climb sharply.

Looking at February, we expect personal spending to rise 0.7%. Solid retail sales—up 0.6% on the month, with the control group advancing 0.5%—point to healthy goods demand (chart), while firmer restaurant spending indicates continued momentum in services. That said, much of the nominal strength reflects higher prices. We expect the PCE deflator increased 0.4%, implying real spending rose a still‑solid but more modest 0.3%. We forecast personal income to increase 0.3%, reflecting some normalization after January’s boost from the Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) • Friday

The March CPI report will put an abrupt end to the gradual disinflationary trend in place over the past two years. We estimate consumer prices rose 1.0% in March, leading to a year-over-year increase of 3.4% (table). Unsurprisingly, energy goods—largely gasoline—will account for the lion's share (~70 bps) of March's monthly increase as higher oil prices have quickly fed through to prices at the pump. Airline fares are expected to be another source of strength in March and drive public transportation prices up 7%, although we expect the recent surge in jet fuel to lead to an even larger rise in airfares in April.

We do not expect to see the effects of the Middle East conflict immediately feeding into other categories of inflation, however. Despite higher prices for LNG exports, domestic natural gas prices have been little changed, which should limit near-term energy services inflation. Meantime, food at home is likely to moderate in March thanks to giveback in the volatile fruits & vegetable component.

Within the core, we look for a modest strengthening in goods primarily due to a rebound in used auto prices. Core services is likely to match the 0.3% gain registered in February, as the expected jump in airline fares is largely offset by mean-reversion in medical care services and further softness in motor vehicle insurance. We anticipate primary shelter rose 0.25%, roughly in-line with its three-month average.

The recent oil shock is likely to dominate the view of inflation in March, but we expect the details to suggest that the modest downward trend in core CPI was already struggling to be maintained. A sustained increase in oil will further complicate progress in reducing inflation as higher production and transportation costs slowly seep into some core categories. Yet, the reduction in household purchasing power caused by higher gasoline prices is likely to limit the ability for some companies to pass on higher costs. We expect the year-over-year rate of core CPI to be stuck in the range of 2.7%–3.1% through the remainder of this year as a result (chart).

G10 Week Ahead

Canada Labor Force Survey • Friday

We look for Canada’s March Labor Force Survey (LFS) to rebound from the soft January/February prints with +20K jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%. Risks are asymmetric: upside to the jobs number and downside to the unemployment rate. The near-term story is a labor market that’s stable, not collapsing—with the main fragility still concentrated in manufacturing and trade-exposed goods, while services, health care, energy and the public sector continue to look relatively resilient. That sector mix should be increasingly shaped by U.S. tariff exposure, the recent surge in energy prices and the impending USMCA review. Structurally, the backdrop has shifted: a shrinking population (net outflow of temporary residents) and an aging workforce are lowering labor force growth—and with it the monthly job threshold needed to keep unemployment stable. The implication is that the unemployment rate can drift lower even with only modest job creation over the coming months. A steadier labor market, in turn, likely tilts the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) focus back toward inflation. We continue to see the BoC stuck on hold as it assesses the energy-price shock and the risk of inflation persistence/feedback. April still looks far too early for a move, but the Monetary Policy Report should offer a clearer read on the BoC's reaction function. We still pencil in a Q3 (July) hike, with the risk of a later hike this year depending on the intensity and persistence of energy and commodity price pressures.

EM Week Ahead

Reserve Bank of India • Wednesday

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policymakers will assess monetary policy settings next week for the first time since the oil price shock, and we expect interest rates to be left on hold. Prior to events in the Middle East, RBI policymakers were inching closer to ending the easing cycle, but perhaps maintained a slight bias for additional rate cuts. With oil prices likely to push headline inflation sharply higher in the coming months and keep the rupee under pressure, we have our doubts the bias remains for additional rate cuts. In fact, through our forecast horizon, we believe rates in India will be kept unchanged as inflation pressures build and INR remains on the back foot.

But the RBI, like many other central banks, is caught in between an inflation and a growth shock. The age-old question will loom for the RBI: support growth or contain inflation? Inflation is likely to be the priority for policymakers, but the economy is set to soften given India's status as a major oil importer. Softening growth could keep the bias for policymakers tilted toward rate cuts. But, in our view, with the economy still likely to grow 6.5%–7% this calendar year, perhaps the need to lower policy rates is not that pressing. Either way, we will get more insight into the RBI thought process and how they consider this trade-off next week.

Mexico CPI • Thursday

For Mexico watchers, the path of inflation has been top of mind. Not only to get a sense of the future direction of Banxico monetary policy but also to gauge whether financial markets will deem prior Banxico easing as a policy error. March inflation should show headline CPI popping higher to reflect the spike in energy prices. At the same time, core inflation, the measure that strips out elevated energy costs, is likely to remain flat. Policymakers have been more focused on sluggish growth prospects to rationalize lowering interest rates, but another key component to justify easing monetary policy has been policymakers' view that core inflationary pressures are muted.

A flat March core inflation print combined with a softening growth outlook, in our view, should continue to give policymakers rationale to cut policy rates at least one more time. Just recently, we adjusted our Banxico outlook to reflect our view for a terminal rate of 6.50% by mid-year. For now, that forecast remains in place, but we also flagged the possibility that Banxico has lowered rates too much. Risks on the horizon such as trade and political uncertainty, could prompt capital flight as carry associated with the peso has been eroded over time. Even a further shift in risk sentiment from the oil price shock can drive a repricing of local financial markets that ultimately prompts as aggressive tightening cycle that keeps growth weighed down for an extended period of time.

Brazil CPI • Friday

While Brazil is one of the economies a bit more shielded from higher energy prices, the inflationary impulse of a spike in energy costs will still materialize. To that point, we expect year-over-year headline inflation to rise close to, possibly back above, 4% when March data are released next week. The balance of risk is shifted toward a firmer rise in inflation, and with inflation expectations already reacting to the rise in energy prices, policymakers are also in reaction mode. To that point, fiscal authorities have already deployed policy to offset the rise in energy prices for households. And monetary policymakers are communicating more caution when considering further reductions in interest rates.

The rise in March inflation should keep fiscal and monetary policymakers busy, but also on guard going forward. For fiscal policy, President Lula is likely to deploy subsidies and other forms of financial support ahead of his re-election campaign. Brazilian Central Bankers are also likely to keep the gradual pace of rate reductions in place, possibly even keep rates steady, to defend against unanchored inflation expectations from materializing. Combined with geopolitical tensions that do not seem to be receding all that quickly, this policy mix could be in place for an extended period of time.

Next Friday’s Canadian Labour Force Survey should show a partial recovery in employment in March after consecutive job losses totalling 109,000 over the prior two months.

The monthly employment data is notoriously volatile, and despite the earlier losses, the unemployment rate still ticked slightly lower over the last two months. It partially retraced a 0.3 percentage point decline in January with a 0.2 percentage point increase to 6.7% in February, still below the 6.8% average in Q4, and recent peak of 7.1% in September.

Young workers aged 15 to 24 accounted for an outsized share of the earlier job losses, representing 60% of the total despite taking up only 14% of the overall labour force. As a result, their unemployment rate increased substantially by 0.7 percentage points in February compared to the Q4 average.

By contrast, the unemployment rate among prime-age workers (aged 25 to 54) has remained relatively steady, trending lower to 5.7% in February from 5.8% in Q4 2025.

Notably, much of the latest increase in the unemployment rate (about half by our count) in February came from a rise in workers that were unemployed, but had a job lined up to start within the next four weeks (future starts). As some of these positions pass start dates, we expect a modest recovery of 15,000 jobs in March—enough to keep the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%.

The increase in future starts coincided with rising job postings in the second half of 2025 into the new year. However, recent data from Indeed.com flagged a sharp reversal in March, possibly due to rising economic uncertainty tied to escalating global geopolitical tensions dampening hiring demand. A similar plunge in job postings was seen in the United States and Australia.

Outlook for hiring remains stable amid uncertainty

Weak hiring sentiment in Canada could extend well into Q2 as geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing tariff risks persist. However, recent gross domestic product growth numbers have looked better with Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates pointing to 1 ½ % annualized growth in Q1 after a soft start, supported by resilient domestic demand.

Uncertainty remains elevated, but we retain our outlook that the per-worker labour market should continue to recover this year. Job growth will remain softer than historical norms given rapidly slowing population growth. However, the unemployment rate is tracking well against our prior assumption of 6.6% in Q1, and we expect it to move lower toward 6.3% by year-end.

Next Friday’s March U.S. Consumer Price Index will show a surge in headline inflation after the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices sharply higher. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to remain largely unchanged from February, driven again by pressure among core services as domestic demand remains strong. Core goods CPI will be closely watched for any tariff passthrough.

U.S. personal spending likely ticked higher in February after retail sales posted a 0.6% monthly increase following a 0.1% decline in January. The gain was driven largely by a 6% month-over-month surge in auto sales. Personal income likely continued its upward trend, as average hourly wages rose 0.3% while hours worked remained flat relative to January.

• Consensus for the March employment report includes a historically sluggish NFP rebound (+50,000 to +65,000) and sticky Average Hourly Earnings (+0.3% to +0.4%).
• A "Stagflation Shock" (low jobs growth under 50k plus high wages over +0.5%) is the worst-case scenario for the Dow Jones, as it traps the Fed from cutting rates.
• Market reactions are split: a bullish NFP beat (>100k) could propel the DXY toward the 100.50 resistance, while a "Goldilocks" outcome (70k–90k) would be cheered by the Dow.

As the market gears up for the April 3rd Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, the narrative has shifted significantly. We are no longer just looking at "hot" or "cold" labor data; we are looking at a Federal Reserve caught between a rock and a hard place, balancing a cooling labor market against a geopolitical oil shock that is threatening to reignite inflation.

Looking at the labor market picture and the chart below shows that firms were not even willing to to hire before the crisis began.

Source: ING, Macrobond

Here is my preview of what to expect from the March employment report and how the US Dollar and Dow Jones might react.

Following a jarring February print that saw a decline of 92,000 jobs, the consensus for March is looking for a modest recovery. However, with "Operation Epic Fury" in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushing Brent crude back above $100, the Fed’s focus has pivotally shifted from "supporting growth" back to "fighting energy-driven inflation."

The numbers to watch

• Headline NFP: Consensus sits around +50,000 to +65,000. While a rebound from February’s contraction, this remains a historically sluggish figure.
• Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady or edge up slightly to 4.4% or 4.5%.
• Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Forecasted at +0.3% to +0.4%. This is the "danger zone", if wages remain sticky while jobs growth slows, the "Stagflation" narrative will gain serious legs.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Market Implications: The "three-way" split

1. The US Dollar Index (DXY): Testing the Ceiling

The DXY has been oscillating within a 95.50–100.50 range, largely buoyed by safe-haven flows.

• Bullish Scenario (NFP > 100k): A surprise beat would confirm the "war economy's" resilience. Traders would likely price out any remaining 2026 rate cuts, propelling the DXY toward the 100.40–100.50 resistance barrier.
• Bearish Scenario (NFP < 30k): A significant miss would validate "hard landing" fears. We could see the DXY retreat toward the 98.00 support level as markets bet the Fed will be forced to pivot to support the economy despite the oil shock.

2. The Dow Jones (DJIA): Seeking a "Goldilocks" Save

The Dow has recently endured a "tailspin," including heavy intraday slides as the "AI honeymoon" of early 2026 meets the reality of geopolitical risk.

• The "Goldilocks" Outcome (70k–90k): Equities would cheer a moderate number. It suggests the economy is cooling enough to justify future easing without signaling a total collapse in consumer demand. Look for a push back toward the 49,000 handle.
• The Stagflation Shock (Low Jobs + High Wages): This is the worst-case scenario. If payrolls miss (under 50k) but wages jump (+0.5%), the Dow could face a fresh sell-off toward 48,000. This scenario traps the Fed—they can't cut to help the economy because wages and oil are fueling the inflation fire.

Technical Outlook & Final Thoughts

From a technical perspective, the markets are showing signs of exhaustion. The US Dollar is forming what looks like a triple top near 100.50, while the Dow is desperately clinging to psychological support levels.

With most markets closed on Friday for the Easter break, the real "fireworks" may be delayed until the Monday open.

Market participants should keep a close eye on the revisions to the February data, if that -92k figure is revised even lower, the "low-hire, low-fire" stabilization narrative might crumble, giving way to a much deeper concern about the health of the American consumer.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, April 2, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

The "North Star" for the Fed is moving. If the NFP provides a hawkish surprise, the "Higher-for-Longer" mantra is back with a vengeance. If it misses, the Fed's 3.50%–3.75% hold might be shorter than they’d like to admit.

Stay disciplined, watch your levels, and keep an eye on the headlines.

• WTI and Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis with key levels ahead of the long Easter weekend
• Crude Oil is once again in the center stage after yesterday's Trump address
• Volatility will remain as long as Oil does not correct below $100

President Trump has just finished speaking in yet another public address, boasting that the ongoing conflict is so efficient and revolutionary, and comparing the long-lasting historical conflicts in the United States with the current advancement in objectives.

But Markets don't care anymore. What they want to see is a proper solution for the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite strong reactions to his speeches during the first days of the War, traders and algorithms have progressively stopped reacting to any overly optimistic announcement from the Administration. As a matter of fact, reactions to them are now doing the exact opposite.

After his speech at the White House yesterday, Global Assets began to tumble from a sweep higher in Energy commodities – Crude prices rose in a flash from $100 to $114 (WTI). While Participants were becoming more hopeful that the conflict would end within the early-announced deadlines (5 weeks, then April 6), a more aggressive tone led to a Market-shaking explosion, as the party quickly finished and left a general hangover.

Combine the worsening tone with high-tier catalysts ahead, like tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls (check our preview!), closed Stock Markets (only Futures will be open until 1:30 PM ET), and the potential for an escalation, including a ground invasion over the long weekend, and that was enough of a hit to blow up the tires from the bull-train.

Talk won't be enough to soothe Markets in the long term – Oil is what Smart Money is looking to move their chess pieces in this gigantic geopolitical puzzle.

Hence, let's dive right into an intraday outlook for both WTI and Brent Oil, highlighting their technical levels and outlining scenarios for their breakouts or breakdowns.

Crude Oil Market Check and Technical Levels ahead of the Long Weekend

WTI 4H Chart

WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 2, 2026. Source: TradingView

WTI has indeed reached concerning levels after yesterday's address, the second highest since the beginning of the conflict, bouncing on the 4H 50-period Moving Average.

Evolving in two different bull channels, the larger one is less reactive but more concerning, pointing to the potential of another top at $120 if bears fail to correct prices.

The second bull channel, of smaller scale, would see a potential top having already been formed, and would see its bottom at $100 – RSI is forming a bearish divergence which could prompt this smaller channel to hold.

As long as WTI remains above $100, investors won't be able to generate much progress in sentiment. Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls shouldn't have much effect on Oil but the general weekend risk will – Hence, traders will be listening closely to the advancement of the War.

WTI Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• Daily highs $113.50 to $114.50 (small channel top)
• 2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)
• Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124

Support Levels

• $106 to $108 June 2022 Pivot
• $98 to $100 Momentum Support & 4H 50-period MA (bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $93.00 to $95
• $82.80 to $84 Key Support
• War flows Pivot $65.00 to $66.00

Brent 4H Chart

Brent Oil 4H Chart – April 2, 2026. Source: TradingView

Brent is in a much more contained price action compared to WTI, effectively stuck in a $100 to $116 range since Mid-March.

The range is now consolidating in a tighter trading between $102 to $114 which brings more definite breakout levels.

• Above the mini-range resistance ($111 to $114), expect further Market stress
• Below $100 to $102 however, expect sentiment to rebound swiftly

The worst case scenario is avoided in Markets as long as Brent does not break the War spike at $120 – After this, expect a catastrophic price action and rate hikes pricing to continue.

Brent Technical Levels:

Resistance Levels

• Range Resistance $111 to $114
• War Highs $117 to $120
• Ukraine War Spike $130 to $135

Support Levels

• $100 - $102 End-March and Range Support
• End-March minor Support $95 to $97
• $88 - $92 March 10 Bounce and 200-MA
• $80 - $82 Key War Support
• Pre-War Gap $75

Keep track of the headlines and watch out for large gaps and sweeps in coming periods (with many players absent for the Easter long weekend).

Safe Trades!

• US Stock Benchmarks rebound slightly with President Trump still attempting to calm Markets
• Oil prices are still playing tricks on broader sentiment, with the conflict now entering its fifth week
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Certainty is a fool's errand in recent market dynamics.

The most seasoned traders would even admit that trading has never been about certainty. Still, more about careful planning and risk-taking – the former part is quite a daunting task with fundamentals changing by the minute.

The latter, however, is where traders can extract alpha by controlling their bias, sizing, and jumping ship with every market-changing headline.

Investors are looking for a dip to buy to profit from a real turn in the War. Still, despite better hopes for conflict resolution in the past week and a half, the overarching theme is one of fragile stability – De-escalation hasn't yet materialized with Iran multiplying attacks, reportedly now directly targeting US companies (including Amazon Web Services servers).

On the other hand, US and Israeli attacks on IRGC infrastructures continue; nothing really changed there. But the largest panic component came after President Trump's latest address at the White House yesterday, where he U-turned on his prior softer tone.

And that turn wasn't welcomed by broader assets, which all tumbled, including Stock Markets and Futures around the globe, right as his speech started.

He did not mention a direct ground operation. Still, the Pentagon has been preparing for weeks of limited ground operation, which corroborates the deployment of Marines to the Middle East throughout last week.

That doesn't bode well for any hopes of de-escalation.

Once again, the only real element that traders should watch is Oil and its price movements. Before hoping for the best, WTI would have to remain below $100 on a daily close, and a weekly close would be even better.

In any case, market volatility has been fragile, as volumes are lower amid the Passover and Easter holidays approaching, compounded by tomorrow's NFP release (preview incoming).

After dumping during overnight futures trading, Stock Markets gapped lower at the open but have corrected most of the move as frantic algorithms and traders rush to close positions ahead of major risk events ahead, not even counting the long-weekend!

To gauge today’s market direction, let’s examine the intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.X

Current Session's Stock Heatmap

Current picture for the Stock Market (12:12 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – April 2, 2026

After consecutive positive session, the picture has changed quite drastically – Now mostly red, only a few smaller names are in the green.

Tesla is leading Mega Caps lower as Elon Musk officially filed the SpaceX IPO, expected to be the most-expensive IPO ever.

For the rest, apart from Healthcare tumbling in harmony, the selloff is erratic, pointing at broad Index selling.

Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels

Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The Dow broke out of its War downtrend, but the current market conditions are more mixed than bullish.

Despite a break retest attempt, a full break above 47,000 will be required to push for a more bullish action ahead. Markets will be closed tomorrow, so traders will have to look at Futures to get their guides to the action:

• A daily close above 47,000 brings back the rebound attempt
• Falling back below 45,800 however hints at further downside ahead.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Session highs 46,900
• Pivotal Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (bullish above)
• Minor Resistance 47,500 to 47,650
• Key Resistance at 48,000

Support Levels

• 45,700 to 45,900 Momentum Pivot
• January 2025 Highs and War Lows 45,280
• Channel and Morning lows 44,840
• Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500
• Major Support 43,500 to 43,750

Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels

Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq also erased most of its losses, getting back to a more neutral momentum, but will have to break and close above 24,000 after NFP to confirm chances of a prolonged rebound.

• 24,200 breaking would confirm the bullish momentum
• Falling back below 23,600 on the other hand puts bears back in control

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Major 2026 range lows 23,800 to 24,000
• 24,200 (bullish above)
• 24,450 to 25,550 resistance
• Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)

Support Levels

• August 2025 Pivot 23,500 to 23,650 (bearish below)
• 22,900 to 23,000 higher timeframe major support
• 22,600 August 2025 Support Zone
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels

S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 is remaining solidly in its war bear channel, which is the most consistent to keep your eyes on in order to determine if bulls are back in control or not (implying that for now, they still are not).

For the Spoose, bulls will want to see a break above 6,600
Bears on the other hand will want to maintain the bear channel and see a daily close below 6,500.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,570 to 6,600 Main Pivotal resistance
• 6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance
• 6,740 Key intraday resistance
• Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800

Support Levels

• 6,490 to 6,512 October lows Pivot
• 6,442 Past week dip
• 6,360 to 6,380 Key August 2025 Support
• 6,300 psychological level Channel Lows
• January 2025 ATH 6,152

Safe Trades and Keep track of headlines and Bitcoin over the weekend!

Markets

Crude oil is at the front and center once again. Brent rises sharply to $109/b, coming from levels around $100 and even temporarily below that amid optimism that the Middle East conflict could end soon. US president Trump upended any hopes during his 19 minute speech yesterday during which he vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks. And if Iran doesn’t strike a deal, the US will begin targeting its electricity and oil facilities. The speech is an escalation, not a hoped-for clear timeline for US withdrawal. Trump’s strong language use reveals a growing frustration, including vis-à-vis the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Being a net energy exporter helps cushion the economic blow but since oil is a globally priced commodity it does not make the US immune to price rises. Joe Sixpack is already paying $5.5 per gallon for diesel, the highest since mid-2022. Gasoline currently stands at $4.08, a similar near-four-year high. Sharply rising pump prices leave consumers with a nasty taste going into the November mid-terms. Europe meanwhile is facing outright shortages (eg. French gasoline stations running dry). Diesel prices have pushed to a barrel equivalent of $210. Prices peaked at around $220 shortly after the Russian invasion.

Surging oil prices have their now-familiar impact on other core market areas. Yield curves bear flatten with central bank hiking bets raising the short end of the curve, increased risk premia do the same for the long end. German rates add between 5.7 and 7 bps. UST Treasury yields add 2.6-3 bps across the curve. Gilts hugely underperform after doing the opposite yesterday – amongst others thanks to governor Bailey pushing back against “markets that get ahead of themselves”. UK yields rally 7.3-9.3 bps. King dollar rules with investors being cautious for the long Easter weekend. Both US and European markets close tomorrow and the US administration has often used non-trading days as an opportunity for big moves (geopolitically, trade-related or otherwise). DXY bounces back to north of the 100 barrier. EUR/USD in a mirror move slides towards but remains above the 1.15 handle. The yen nears USD/JPY 160 again and cable (GBP/USD) risks breaking below 1.32 support. Risk off pushes equities down more than 2% in Europe and between 1.25-1.75% on Wall Street.

News & Views

Swiss inflation in March rose 0.2% M/M and 0.3% Y/Y (0.6% M/M and 0.1% Y/Y in February), falling below expectations (0.5% M/M). The Swiss Statistical Office noted the rise was due to several factors including rising prices for heating oil and international package holidays. Prices for air transport also recorded an increase, as did those for petrol and diesel. Core inflation (ex. fresh & seasonal products, energy and fuel) was unchanged (0.4% Y/Y). Prices for domestic goods declined 0.2% M/M but were 0.5% higher Y/Y. Prices of imported goods rose 1.8% M/M but were 0.3% lower Y/Y. The report for now only shows a ‘modest’ direct price increase following the Middle East conflict. The broader impact still has to become apparent later. With inflation still in the lower part of the 0%-2% price stability band, the Swiss National bank for now has room to wait and see. Markets discount about 75% chance of a rate hike in September. This room for the SNB to wait and strong verbal warnings on the SNB’s determination to address unwarranted CHF strength for now might bring the franc in somewhat of a more neutral position. EUR/CHF recently rebounded from the 0.90 area mid last month to currently 0.9215.

The Bank of England today published its March Decision Maker Panel data. This CFO survey was conducted between 6-20 March. Firms reported realised annual own-price growth at 3.7% in the three months to March (from 3.8%). Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected at 3.5% in the three months to March, but single month data increased from 3.4% to 3.7%, pointing to firms adjusting expectations due to recent increases in energy prices. Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation accelerated by 0.5ppts to 3.5%. Overall uncertainty rose with 57% of firms reporting that the overall level of uncertainty facing their business was high or very high (+10 ppts from Feb.). Firms realised annual employment growth at -0.3%, down from -0.2%. Expectations for employment growth over the next year were unchanged at 0.1%.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1479; (P) 1.1521; (R1) 1.1596; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 1.1408. With 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.1497) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0535). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3235; (P) 1.3290; (R1) 1.3362; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.3158 temporary low. Further decline is still in favor. Below 1.3158 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. However, firm break of 1.3479 will indicate that the fall from 1.3867 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 158.33; (P) 158.67; (R1) 159.12; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias remains neutral .Consolidations from 160.45 could extend further with another falling leg. But overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. Firm break of 160.45 will resume the rise from 152.25 to retest 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.97) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.