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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0813; (P) 1.0826; (R1) 1.0841; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/SD remains neutral a this point. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0848) holds. Below 1.0801 will resume the fall from 1.0980 to retest 1.0694 first. Break there will resume the decline from 1.1138 and target 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2617; (P) 1.2629; (R1) 1.2653; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Risk stays on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.2667) holds. Below 1.2574 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 1.2517 structural support first. Decisive break there will suggest that rise from 1.2036 has completed at 1.2892 already, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3141 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2036 is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. But upside should be limited by 1.3141 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, break of 1.2517 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 (2022 low) to 1.3141 at 1.2075 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9019; (P) 0.9046; (R1) 0.9064; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 100% projection projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9062 will target 0.9243 key medium term resistance next. On the downside, below 0.8964 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8884 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8728 support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.91; (P) 151.44; (R1) 151.85; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 150.25 support should confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 149.01). Nevertheless, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.

European stocks renewed record on Wednesday, the US dollar consolidated gains and the S&P500 stocks got a late-session boost. Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat. Nvidia fell 2.5% yesterday. Goldman Sachs warned that the pension funds are likely to sell $32bn worth of equities as part of rebalancing. That could have a slowing impact on the equity rally, although the rebalancing act will hardly change the overall market trend given that there is a sizeable amount of cash waiting to flow into equities and bonds. The only thing that investors need is the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut dream to stay alive for the June meeting. And for now, that’s the case. Activity on Fed funds futures gives around 64% chance for a June rate cut.

But note that, this probability was around 75% last week and it’s coming lower as many investors think that the Fed won’t be able to cut the rates with robust growth and bumpy inflation. And indeed, the US latest GDP update is due today and is expected to confirm an above 3% growth for the US economy in the last quarter of last year, down from almost 5% printed a quarter earlier. These levels don’t call for an imminent Fed cut. This is perhaps why the US dollar is not willing to give back gains despite a relatively dovish Fed stance. The US dollar index is up by around 1% since the Fed plotted 75bp cut for this year and said that it will also start slowing the pace of QT.

Something must give.

• Either the US dollar should weaken because the Fed is expected to cut three times this year with the first cut due in June - in which case we could continue to see the stock market laggards catch up with the leaders of the past quarters and capital to flow into the other-than-tech sectors as well. And in case of policy easing – as predicted - appetite should also broaden to small and mid cap stocks, to EM funds and to commodities.
• Or the US dollar should continue its recovery on the back of robust data and a pullback in Fed cut expectations, in which case we should see the stocks give back strength.

But both a strong dollar and a stock rally is not sustainable in Q2.

Eurozone economies under pressure, but ECB determined to fight inflation

Higher interest rates and the energy crisis are taking a toll on Eurozone economies. Germany is expected to rise 0.1% this year – it’s more a stagnation than a rise. Slowing Eurozone economies and gloomy growth outlook for the next quarters back a June rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB), yes, but the ECB says that it won’t commit to other rate cuts beyond June, before making sure that inflation is on a solid path toward the 2% policy target. And indeed, inflation numbers from Spain confirmed a rebound in consumer prices in March as the government continued to remove support that helped tempering the otherwise-unbearable rise in energy prices. So yes, the last mile in reaching the 2% inflation goal is not a given for the European countries either. And that’s certainly why the EURUSD holds ground near the 1.08 level – it’s because the ECB looks determined to continue fighting inflation. But a robust GDP and a hot inflation report could break the back of the EURUSD bulls.

Sumo fight

The sumo fight between the Japanese officials and the yen bears remains intense as the yen bears are testing the Japanese nerves near the 152 level. The threat of FX intervention slows the yen selloff at the current levels, but we saw in the past that the post-intervention effects remain limited when the market is turbocharged with opposite direction trades. Therefore, any pullback in the USDJPY – due to the threat of intervention or intervention – could remain short-lived. A hint of further policy tightening is certainly more effective than costly and barely effective FX threats.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6518; (P) 0.6529; (R1) 0.6545; More....

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6503 support will indicate that larger fall from 0.6870 is ready to resume, and turn bias to the downside for 0.6442 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6633 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which might still be in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3552; (P) 1.3580; (R1) 1.3595; More...

Outlook in USD/CAD is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3612 resistance will resume whole rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3897 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 1.3419 support will argue that rebound from 1.3176 has completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for 1.3357 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3976 (2022 high) are viewed as a corrective pattern only. In case of another fall, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Overall, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8559; (P) 0.8572; (R1) 0.8579; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. With 0.8529 support intact, further rally is in favor. Rebound from 0.8497 is seen as at least correcting the fall from 0.8764. Above 0.8601 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8497 to 0.8577 from 0.8503 at 0.8632.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.9267 has completed, despite loss of downside momentum as seen in D MACD. As long as 0.8713 resistance holds, the down trend will remain in favor to resume through 0.8491 low at la later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6547; (P) 1.6585; (R1) 1.6608; More...

EUR/AUD is extending consolidation from 1.6742 and intraday bias stays neutral. Near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.6439 support holds. On the upside, above 1.6677 will target 1.6742 first. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 1.6127 and target 1.6844 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7062 medium term top is seen as a correction to the up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Break of 1.6844 resistance will argue that this up trend is ready to resume through 1.7062 high. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen around 1.5846 and 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9771; (P) 0.9796; (R1) 0.9810; More..

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 0.9252 is in progress towards 1.0095 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9689 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.9252 already, on bullish convergence condition in W MACD. Rise from there would now target 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 (2018 high) to 0.9252 (2023 low) at 1.0303, even as a correction to the down trend from 1.2004. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.9535) holds.