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Alan Taylor reinforced his dovish stance in remarks at a Deutsche Bank event in London today, arguing that inflation risks are shifting away from stickiness and toward undershooting the 2% target. He suggested weakening demand and softening labor market now pose greater downside risks to price pressures than previously feared.

While acknowledging that services CPI remains “slightly concerning” at around 4.4%, Taylor described the persistence as a temporary lag rather than a structural issue. He said the broader disinflation trend remains intact, even if services inflation has not cooled as quickly as hoped.

Pointing to what he called a “pessimistic outlook” for the UK job market, Taylor argued that policy remains too restrictive and justified a faster pace of easing. He sees scope for two to three additional rate cuts before the Bank Rate approaches a theoretical neutral level.

As shown on the XAU/USD chart today, gold climbed above $5,170, reaching its highest level so far this month. The main bullish factors are:

• → US tariff uncertainty – after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs on Friday, the US president reinstated them, initially at 10% and then announcing an increase to 15% on Saturday.
• → Heightened geopolitical tensions – media reports indicate that the US is prepared not only for targeted strikes against Iran but also for a longer military operation. The presence of two aircraft carrier groups in the region raises the risk of direct confrontation, traditionally boosting gold demand.
• → End of the Chinese holiday season – the People’s Bank of China, pursuing a reserve diversification strategy away from the US dollar, may continue purchasing physical gold.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

On 17 February, analysis of gold price movements confirmed the long-term ascending channel and highlighted:

• → Bearish activity visible through the descending resistance line (R);
• → Bulls could rely on the channel’s lower boundary as support.

Indeed (as the arrow shows), the market remained within the channel. Moreover, bulls broke above the resistance line (R), which then acted as support around $4,960.

This formed an upward trajectory (black lines). Bullish behaviour is notable around $5,100, where price:

• → Gapped higher at the open;
• → Rose above the line dividing the lower half of the channel into two quarters.

Considering the chart, it is reasonable to suggest bulls currently hold the initiative, supported by fundamentals. They may aim for the channel’s median, with $5,100 providing support in case of a pullback.

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Market Overview

The crypto market cap has lost about 3.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.25 trillion. At its lowest point at the start of the day, the price fell to $2.22 trillion, which is not far from the lows of February 5–6. It seems that bears have gathered enough strength to try to complete the consolidation of the last couple of weeks during the hours of lowest liquidity. Among the top coins, Solana and Bitcoin Cash are taking the biggest hit, losing over 7%, while Tron is doing better than most, losing only 0.3%.

The sentiment index fell to 5, repeating the lows of February 12 and dropping this low for only the third time in history. According to the indicator, such a decline is a good point for long-term purchases. However, the last time there was a relatively long dip into single digits was in June 2022, and steady growth only began at the start of 2023. So, the lows of the sentiment index do not necessarily coincide with the lows of the crypto market prices.

Bitcoin fell to $64.2K at the start of the day on Monday, recovering to around $66K by the start of active trading in Europe. Despite an attempt at recovery in the last few hours, the bears on the chart showed who is in control, leaving the downward resistance in place and pushing BTC below the support level. Without a dramatic change in sentiment, the market may fall to $60K as early as this week.

News Background

The total capitalisation of cryptocurrencies has fallen by $730 billion in 100 days. CryptoQuant calls this an “unprecedented rate of capital outflow,” which is accelerating the contraction of the crypto market.

Retail traders are actively buying BTC at every dip, while institutional investors have sold a “huge amount” of the asset over the past five weeks, Santiment notes.

The situation is exacerbated by a negative trend in Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics — on-chain transaction volumes, the number of new addresses, and network growth rates are steadily declining.

In the coming weeks, BTC could break through the $60,000 mark and fall to support levels around $50,000–55,000. By the end of the year, Bitcoin could fall even lower, warns crypto industry veteran and Ballet CEO Bobby Lee.

Mining company Bitdeer sold its entire stock of bitcoins to support its operations — about 943 BTC. Miners’ revenues have been steadily declining since October 2025.

BNP Paribas has chosen Ethereum for a pilot project to explore the possibilities of tokenising money market funds.

Germany’s business sentiment improved in February, with the Ifo Institute Business Climate Index rising from 87.6 to 88.6, slightly above expectations of 88.4. Current Assessment Index climbed notably from 85.6 to 87.6, beating forecasts of 86.1. Expectations Index edged up from 89.6 to 90.5, in line with consensus.

Sector breakdown shows broad-based improvement. Manufacturing sentiment rose from -12.3 to -11.3, while services moved back into positive territory at 0.1 from -2.6. Construction also improved, narrowing losses from -14.3 to -11.5. Trade as the weakest component, slipping further to -21.8 from -21.1.

The institute noted companies were more satisfied with current conditions and increasingly optimistic about the outlook, describing the data as “first signs of recovery.” While levels remain subdued by historical standards, February’s improvement reinforces the view that Germany may be emerging from stagnation, offering cautious support to broader Eurozone growth expectations.

Full German Ifo release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.27; (P) 182.68; (R1) 183.14; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays mildly on the upside this point. Fall from 186.86 might have completed after hitting 38.2% retracement of 172.24 to 186.86 at 181.27. Stronger rebound would be seen back to retest 186.22/86 resistance zone. However, sustained break of 181.27 will argue that fall from 186.86 is correcting whole up trend from 154.77, and bring deeper decline.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD and break of 55 D EMA, a medium term top could be formed at 186.86 already. Deeper correction would be seen but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 186.86 at 174.60 to bring rebound. Meanwhile, firm break of 186.86 will resume larger up trend to 78.6% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 208.39; (P) 209.03; (R1) 209.68; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 207.20 will extend the corrective fall from 214.98 to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. Nevertheless, firm break of 209.68 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, considering the break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.68), a medium term top could be formed at 214.98. Deeper correction would be seen, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.98 at 203.27. On the upside, break of 214.98 will resume larger up trend from from 123.94 (2020 low), and target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8727; (P) 0.8738; (R1) 0.8751; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral with focus on 0.8744 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that fall from 0.8863 has completed as a correction at 0.8661. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8663 high. On the downside, break of 0.8685 support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8611. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618 will carry larger bearish implications and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8636) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6588; (P) 1.6672; (R1) 1.6716; More...

Range trading continues in EUR/AUD above 1.6620 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further decline is expected with 1.6830 resistance intact. On the downside, decisive break of 1.6620 will resume the larger decline from 1.8554 to 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 next. However, firm break of 1.6830 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9124; (P) 0.9133; (R1) 0.9151; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and consolidations continues above 0.9092. Stronger rebound might be seen but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9092 at 0.9207. On the downside, firm break of 0.9092 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress with falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9326) intact. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Key takeaways

• Tariff escalation despite court setback: President Trump rejected the Supreme Court’s ruling against his 10% baseline tariffs and moved to lift them to 15% under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, raising fresh policy uncertainty and reviving the “Sell America” narrative.
• Risk-off market reaction: The US dollar weakened, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell, while gold rallied as investors sought safe havens amid renewed trade tensions and legal uncertainty over tariff policy.
• Diverging technical setups: USD/JPY remains bearish below 154.65/154.95, gold is testing key $5,170 resistance with breakout risk, and the Hang Seng Index shows short-term bullish momentum above 26,615 support.

US President Trump has refused to back down on his global tariffs policy after the US Supreme Court ruled against his use of his reciprocal tariffs enacted last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), in turn, deemed the global baseline tariff rate of 10% as illegal.

Trump called the Supreme Court verdict “unpatriotic” and vowed to press on the current White House’s aggressive trade policy stance to circumvent the Supreme Court’s ruling by imposing an increase in the global reciprocal tariff to 15% from 10% with immediate effect via a social media post on Saturday, 21 February.

Trump is applying the new baseline tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose tariffs for 150 days without congressional approval. Beyond the 150 days, securing congressional approval is likely to prove challenging for the White House because Democrats and several Republicans have opposed elements of Trump’s trade policy.

The latest cloud of uncertainty over the US tariff policy has triggered another bout of the “Sell America” narrative, where the US dollar weakened further in today’s Asia session (US Dollar Index shed -0.2%), S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures dropped by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Gold (XAU/USD) jumped by 0.8% (see Fig. 1) at the time of writing.

Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performances of the US dollar, Gold (XAU/USD), SPX 500 & Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures as of 23 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Let’s dissect the short-term trajectory of USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD), and Hang Seng Index.

USD/JPY – Reintegrate below 20-day and 50-day moving averages

Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 23 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Bearish bias below 154.65/154.95 short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 153.83 key near-term support opens scope for further potential weakness to expose the next intermediate support of 152.65/152.20 (see Fig. 2).

However, a clearance and an hourly close above 154.95 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 155.66 and 156.36.

Gold (XAU/USD) – Squeezed up to probe $5,170 key short-term resistance

Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 23 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Gold (XAU/USD) ended last Friday, 20 February, US session with a daily return of 2.2% and extends its gains further in today’s Asia session with an intraday rally of almost 1% to test a key short-term resistance at $5,160 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor down move from 29 January 2026 all-time high to 2 February 2026 low) (see Fig. 3).

The hourly RSI momentum indicator has started to inch downwards from its overbought reading of 82. Mixed elements, neutral between $5,170 and $4,960 (also close to the 20-day moving average).

Only a clearance and hourly close above $5,170 ignites a potential bullish move towards $5,448 and $5,606 (current all-time high).

On the flipside, failure to hold at $4,960 sees another round of choppy sideways downward drift towards the range supports of $4,842 and $4,703 (also the 50-day moving average).

Hang Seng Index – Short-term minor bullish momentum breakout

Fig. 4: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend as of 23 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have cleared above its 20-day moving average, which has acted as a near-term resistance since 12 February 2026 (see Fig. 4).

In addition, its hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its former descending resistance at around the 50 level, which suggests a potential revival of short-term bullish momentum.

Bullish bias above 26,615 key short-term pivotal support for a potential push up to test 27,228 intermediate resistance follow by the 27,500 major resistance.

On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 26,615 negates the bullish tone for a potential drift down to retest the minor range support of 26,285 (in place since 20 January 2026).